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Covid

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Will this level of cases now just be acceptable?

758 replies

Tuba437 · 16/08/2021 19:26

Just having a think to myself. We're now at around 30k cases a day in general. The 7 day average daily deaths is about 89 (this was for around 45-50k cases a day). We can assume that I a month or so deaths will be at around 60 a day.

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths. Will this just be the acceptable number. We know the vaccine doesn't stop the spread so I highly doubt were ever just going to get down to sub 5k cases a day again.

21k is considered a very mild flu death rate for the year. We have a new virus around now so more deaths a year are going to be a thing whether we like it or not.

I also think red list countries should only be for countries with worrying variants. If I don't have to isolate if my wife tests positive (just daily testing) then why on earth would I have to spend 1500 on a government hotel to quarantine as I've been to a country with a lower covid rate than us?

Sorry about the rant.

OP posts:
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GoldenOmber · 19/08/2021 21:56

You can't really have it both ways and say that you aren't bothered about the risks with covid, you don't see the need to take so many precautions - but you are bothered about other people being infected?

I haven’t said that, though.

What if I was someone who didn’t go out to eat at all, indoors or outdoors, because I felt that it wasn’t ‘sensible’ to put the kitchen and waiting staff at risk of catching covid. And I said to you: “look at you going out to eat, clearly you aren’t bothered about people being infected!” Would you agree with that?

Likewise, I don’t drive. If you drive, I am not going to tell you that it’s because you don’t care about illnesses caused by air pollution while I do, and I’m merely being sensible while you’re not.

GoldenOmber · 19/08/2021 21:57

(Also, I don’t know why you were being so rude to IcedPurple there. Seems a bit bizarrely out of the blue.)

MarshaBradyo · 19/08/2021 21:58

Me either - what was wrong with the quote?

herecomesthsun · 19/08/2021 22:00

Hello Marsha.

So this is not about being "car-ing" in the sense of being a virtuous person (between you and your God, as Dave Allen might have said)

This is about caring or being bothered about passing on covid (more to the point on the covid board).

There does seem to be a point in continuing to discuss this, as this thread is so full of muddled arguments and misunderstandings, and also people quoting other posters out of context.

So I'll hang in here, thanks very much (you can scroll past of course).

MarshaBradyo · 19/08/2021 22:03

Yes but I can see a strong connection between this caring and perception of personal risk.

And I’m willing to bet that those who would like others to behave in a way that keeps infection lower are thinking of themselves first.

herecomesthsun · 19/08/2021 22:04

@MarshaBradyo

Me either - what was wrong with the quote?
They quoted a quote in ".."that didn't exist.

Not a criminal offence of course, but doesn't help the argument along.

Usually when people do that they change the wording to suit their argument a bit.

Also, it was not clear to whom they were attributing the quote, especially as it didn't exist..

It wasn't rude to point that out.

GoldenOmber · 19/08/2021 22:05

They paraphrased. You accused them of making it up, which they didn’t. The polite response to getting corrected about that would be “oops”, not sniping at them that probably their argument wasn’t very good anyway.

herecomesthsun · 19/08/2021 22:08

@MarshaBradyo

Yes but I can see a strong connection between this caring and perception of personal risk.

And I’m willing to bet that those who would like others to behave in a way that keeps infection lower are thinking of themselves first.

I don't really see a very strong connection.

You can wish people well and disagree with them or make different choices.

We could all choose to behave in a way that would benefit others wrt covid, what would be wrong with that?

MarshaBradyo · 19/08/2021 22:14

We could all choose to behave in a way that would benefit others wrt covid, what would be wrong with that?

I know you really think this is the right way to be, and you can do that as I’ve said and many others have.

But no my behaviour isn’t as cautious as yours - I’ve done inside parties / restaurants / cinema / train travel etc And that’s fine. There are no longer any restrictions. I follow mask guidance (but completely honestly it’s a society pressure thing eg everyone in shops does so I do otherwise I wouldn’t).

The numbers right now reflect our mixed behaviour and that’s fine.

herecomesthsun · 19/08/2021 22:15

@GoldenOmber

They paraphrased. You accused them of making it up, which they didn’t. The polite response to getting corrected about that would be “oops”, not sniping at them that probably their argument wasn’t very good anyway.
you don't use quotes to paraphrase though,

the quote appeared largely made up

and I was polite

and appropriate Smile

herecomesthsun · 19/08/2021 22:18

@MarshaBradyo

We could all choose to behave in a way that would benefit others wrt covid, what would be wrong with that?

I know you really think this is the right way to be, and you can do that as I’ve said and many others have.

But no my behaviour isn’t as cautious as yours - I’ve done inside parties / restaurants / cinema / train travel etc And that’s fine. There are no longer any restrictions. I follow mask guidance (but completely honestly it’s a society pressure thing eg everyone in shops does so I do otherwise I wouldn’t).

The numbers right now reflect our mixed behaviour and that’s fine.

that's fine, good luck

very happy however to explain why the medical approach to covid is different to that for cancer Smile

MarshaBradyo · 19/08/2021 22:21

Thanks - although good luck sounds a bit ominous Grin

You can if you like but I wasn’t thinking about cancer!

I do think there are some interesting techniques used for cancer - lung cancer / smoking predominantly that uses fear based messaging too. But it’s a bit late and I can’t expand atm

GoldenOmber · 19/08/2021 22:23

and I was polite

and appropriate

You absolutely weren’t. You accused somebody of making up a quote that they didn’t make up, then you doubled down on blaming them rather than admitting you got wrong.

It was a bit weird of you to assume the quote was made up in the first place, tbh. Why do that? And why the sneery “perhaps you should read some Public Health”, “I don’t want to bore you” responses to TheKeatingFive? People disagree with you about the exact calibration of covid risk so it’s okay to be rude to them?

cantkeepawayforever · 19/08/2021 22:29

@MarshaBradyo

Yes but I can see a strong connection between this caring and perception of personal risk.

And I’m willing to bet that those who would like others to behave in a way that keeps infection lower are thinking of themselves first.

I think it depends if you mean ‘themselves’ in a ‘strictly personal’ way or not.

I would not agree if you mean ‘themselves’ as in ‘just the one person’ - I / me.

However, if you mean it in the wider sense as in ‘themselves directly and the other people they are personally aware if’ then I would say it has more truth. When wanting to keep infection lower, I am thinking of my elderly parents, and of the parents of those friends I know with whom I share the experience of worrying about elderly care. I am thinking of my school colleagues. I am thinking of the CEV children and adults I know ir an aware of. I am thinking of my children and their university-bound and university - attending peers. I am thinking of my pupils and the varied and sometimes difficult family situations and vulnerable relatives they live with.

So I am not thinking of ‘just’ myself as an individual - but nor amI thinking of society as an amorphous and anonymous mass.

herecomesthsun · 19/08/2021 22:34

Re cancer - quite a lot has been written on here about cancer vs covid.

There is in fact a good medical and scientific rationale for the decision-making.

I think it might be boring for people to write a load of stuff about medical epidemiology and service provision though. I feel that long explanations sort of get lost?

Could be done though, with links to relevant articles to explain different points.

However, if someone genuinely doesn't understand why covid and cancer have been addressed differently they might be better reading more about the subjects than having someone on a message board try to explain paragraph by paragraph.

herecomesthsun · 19/08/2021 22:36

@GoldenOmber

and I was polite

and appropriate

You absolutely weren’t. You accused somebody of making up a quote that they didn’t make up, then you doubled down on blaming them rather than admitting you got wrong.

It was a bit weird of you to assume the quote was made up in the first place, tbh. Why do that? And why the sneery “perhaps you should read some Public Health”, “I don’t want to bore you” responses to TheKeatingFive? People disagree with you about the exact calibration of covid risk so it’s okay to be rude to them?

absolutely was

quote was made up

you are I am afraid being rather rude

IcedPurple · 19/08/2021 22:38

[quote herecomesthsun]@IcedPurple I used control + F

you should learn how to use quotes properly.

Making up quotations to prove a point is, well, usually a sign that your argument position isn't very good.[/quote]
You're just being obnoxious now. Not to mention showing an incredibly childish desperation not to admit you were wrong, which, coupled with the bad sarcasm, doesn't paint you in such a great light.

it's perfectly obvious to everyone but you that I didn't 'make up' a quotation. I'm not going to engage with you any further in this thread because it's obvious to all that you're being obtuse and really rather silly.

herecomesthsun · 19/08/2021 22:42

so long and thanks for all the "quotes" Smile

GoldenOmber · 19/08/2021 22:42

However, if someone genuinely doesn't understand why covid and cancer have been addressed differently they might be better reading more about the subjects than having someone on a message board try to explain paragraph by paragraph.

Everyone does understand that. Everyone knows cancer isn’t the same as covid. Nobody’s suggesting chemotherapy for covid. And I think you do know this.

The point being made was on the morality of preventing deaths. If the justification for severe restrictions is “it will prevent severe illnesses and deaths”, then why is that justified for covid but not cancer? Or COPD, or HIV, or various other causes of death. We could put measures in place, now, today, which would prevent many of those deaths. We could. We don’t, though. But why shouldn’t we, if the moral justification for doing it for covid at this point post-vaccines is “it’ll save lives”?

That’s the argument being made, and if you think “read some public health” is a counter to it then it comes across as if you’re not that familiar with some public health fundamentals yourself.

cantkeepawayforever · 19/08/2021 22:44

I would also say - further to my post above - that the other way round is also true wrt Covid behaviour. Those whose ‘circle of friends/relatives/work colleagues / professional contacts’ does not contain many / any people who are likely to be badly affected, will generally think that more risky behaviour in society at large is likely to be ok. It’s not about a ‘purely personal’ risk assessment but a ‘wider group’ risk assessment guiding their thinking.

GoldenOmber · 19/08/2021 22:47

Actually, you seem to do this a lot on this thread.

I say: by your logic, how can you justify eating out at all? It’s still increasing the infection risk of all the people making and serving your food, indoors or out.

You act as if I’m suggesting we ban all dining.

TheKeatingFive says, why should we not take drastic measures to prevent cancer deaths, if preventing deaths is all we care about? We could save many lives from cancer if we did that, after all.

You act as if she doesn’t understand that cancer is not an infectious disease.

It’s possible you’re just misreading, but it does come across as if you can’t answer the points being made so would rather misrepresent them into something else that you can answer. Which is not a great way to have a discussion.

herecomesthsun · 19/08/2021 23:35

@GoldenOmber

However, if someone genuinely doesn't understand why covid and cancer have been addressed differently they might be better reading more about the subjects than having someone on a message board try to explain paragraph by paragraph.

Everyone does understand that. Everyone knows cancer isn’t the same as covid. Nobody’s suggesting chemotherapy for covid. And I think you do know this.

The point being made was on the morality of preventing deaths. If the justification for severe restrictions is “it will prevent severe illnesses and deaths”, then why is that justified for covid but not cancer? Or COPD, or HIV, or various other causes of death. We could put measures in place, now, today, which would prevent many of those deaths. We could. We don’t, though. But why shouldn’t we, if the moral justification for doing it for covid at this point post-vaccines is “it’ll save lives”?

That’s the argument being made, and if you think “read some public health” is a counter to it then it comes across as if you’re not that familiar with some public health fundamentals yourself.

Many different arguments were being made, some of them jumbled up together. @TheKeatingFive seemed very keen to make the comparison with cancer in a number of different ways, to be honest, (though I don't remember chemotherapy in there. Funnily enough, methotrexate, which can be used for chemo, is considered a possible treatment for covid you know)

One issue with pandemics is that rapid action can prevent a very large number of deaths in a short period of time. It's a classic epidemiological tactic. www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus

Another issue is how quickly we come out of restrictions - too quickly and there can be another spike and the point of the first lot of restrictions is lost.

Another issue is that the situation with a relatively new pathogen is quite unstable. So we were in a crisis affecting all of society in March 2020 - and ended up in lockdown and we were in crisis again in January 2021. It's certainly possible that there will be a further crisis this winter. We don't entirely know, of course, but it's possible. The not knowing is a big part of the problem.

Cancer is a terrible disease, but it takes a long time to develop, there is a more predictable pattern of new cases coming forwards, so the demand on and effect on services is more predictable, even if it is hard for services to manage right now for other reasons.

The winter demand of the combination of covid/ flu/ RSV is likely to be very high and surging through the worst of the winter months.

Even if we would like to ignore covid and crack on with treating all the other illnesses, it would be hard to do so, because the cancer patients, for example, may well be immunosuppressed, either because of their illness, or because of their treatment, or both, and the more poorly they are the more susceptible they might be to covid. We might want to ignore covid, but covid will not ignore vulnerable patients. We can't just run other medical services ignoring the need to isolate the covid patients, for example, so we need different treatment areas, more space, masks more resources to do the same job.

Another issue, regarding restrictions, is that with an infection, we can identify the agent and then try to avoid people getting infected. We have a mechanism and a rationale that comes from that (and you don't always have that in medicine)

With cancer, there are often all sorts of factors in place for example

  • ethnicity
  • genetic inheritance
  • passive and active exposure to smoking
  • diet (dairy/ meat/ lack of vegetables and fibre)
  • breast feeding/ having been breast fed as a baby
  • pollution, yes
  • exercise
  • exposure to the sun
  • alcohol or other drugs
  • exposure to infection
  • exposure to chemicals

and so on (not in any particular order), varying according to the different sorts of cancer.

It would be a real challenge to winkle these out, and changes would affect all of our lives, potentially even more than the covid restrictions do. Believe me, someone who is told for example that they cannot drive for medical reasons is likely to be extremely upset/ annoyed about it, removing motorised transport even on a personal level is likely to raise strong objections. It is really hard also to change habits around diet, exercise etc as we all know, though you are all quite right that we need to do this (and public health medicine encourages people to do this). It is a thorny issue and not one that is easy to address. If you take some of these things out of people's lives, what do you give them instead as a means of transport/ way of accessing work/ pleasures in life.

So the response to covid has been different to the response to cancer partly because it has been an acute situation and partly because infection control measures have a medical logic to them (avoid vulnerable people getting infected, vaccination etc).

I think that's long enough (though not perfect) very happy to discuss further. As I tried to suggest, there's quite a bit you could unpack.

user1477391263 · 19/08/2021 23:43

Are vaccines and hand washing useful for it? And social distancing? Can it be helped by very simple actions most people should be easily capable of?

One of those things is not like the other two things. Pushing the flu jab and better hand hygiene more is not a problem. "Social distancing" is not a simple little action. It involves radically reorganizing society along fairly dystopian lines, massively increasing loneliness and physical inactivity for most people, and requiring certain industries to either shut down altogether or exist on government life support. I've always got the jab for flu for my family. I will not be social distancing again unless there is an actual pandemic at hand.

user1477391263 · 19/08/2021 23:45

Plus, I've never encountered anyone who says 'we could just keep masks' and actually belives we should 'just' do that. Invariably they'll slip in 'and social distancing too', as though a measure which makes normal life impossible in so many ways were a trivial thing.

THIS. I don't actually mind wearing masks indoors, but they do seem to be a bit of a "thin edge of the wedge" if you know what I mean.

herecomesthsun · 19/08/2021 23:46

@GoldenOmber

Actually, you seem to do this a lot on this thread.

I say: by your logic, how can you justify eating out at all? It’s still increasing the infection risk of all the people making and serving your food, indoors or out.

You act as if I’m suggesting we ban all dining.

TheKeatingFive says, why should we not take drastic measures to prevent cancer deaths, if preventing deaths is all we care about? We could save many lives from cancer if we did that, after all.

You act as if she doesn’t understand that cancer is not an infectious disease.

It’s possible you’re just misreading, but it does come across as if you can’t answer the points being made so would rather misrepresent them into something else that you can answer. Which is not a great way to have a discussion.

by your logic, how can you justify eating out at all? It’s still increasing the infection risk of all the people making and serving your food, indoors or out.

my logic is, really, doing what we humanly can to get on with our lives, as best as we can in a pandemic.

So if we are going to eat out, then doing it in as safe a way as possible.

After all, we have to eat and the people who run the restaurants have to live. But there are options and choices.

re The KeatingFive, they said "I honestly cannot fathom some of the thinking on this thread, which seems to be pull out all the stops to minimise covid deaths, but don’t even spend 2 minutes thinking about measures that could prevent other deaths."

So this is how I understand the rationale to manage covid, as best as I can put it at the time of night.

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