Australia in a mess - NZ with a plan

[StartupRepair]

More than half of Australia is in lockdown now, sparked (imo) by the intransigence of the NSW Premier who ignored all warnings about Delta. Our procurement of and messaging around vaccines has been dangerously incompetent.
It all feels a bit bleak today. At least NZ seems to have a plan.

I don’t understand the end game, or point that they’re aiming for. It feels like half the people I know have had covid by now, the vast majority once they had had the vaccine. I only know a handful who had covid last year. My confusion is why they’ve put so much riding on the vaccine take-up when it is not a silver bullet to getting cases low anyway. Test test test, the who even said lockdowns should be a last resort. Maybe my perception of aus is simply wrong but I thought there’d be a more sophisticated approach 18 months from the start of this thing.

I really appreciate the discussion here because it’s fascinating to hear it from locals or ex locals.

@newstart1234

I don’t understand the end game, or point that they’re aiming for. It feels like half the people I know have had covid by now, the vast majority once they had had the vaccine. I only know a handful who had covid last year. My confusion is why they’ve put so much riding on the vaccine take-up when it is not a silver bullet to getting cases low anyway. Test test test, the who even said lockdowns should be a last resort. Maybe my perception of aus is simply wrong but I thought there’d be a more sophisticated approach 18 months from the start of this thing.

I really appreciate the discussion here because it’s fascinating to hear it from locals or ex locals.

I'm not sure I understand the end game either... The U.K. has 90% single vaccinated and 76% double vaccinated, and there remain 10,000s of Covid infections daily, albeit that deaths are around 100 per day compared to over 1,000 per day when there were similar infection numbers in the winter.

At some point Australia and NZ will need to accept Covid becoming endemic and causing illness and death if they aren't to isolate for ever. I'm guessing that's going to be particularly tough for places like WA and NZ who's reaction to even single cases has been drastic action.

This is how they will get to 80% vaccinated. No jab no work!

80% vaccinated won't stop Covid... It will drastically reduce death and serious disease but it won't lead to "herd immunity". Psychologically many in Australia and NZ haven't come close to reconciling themselves with that yet. Heck, many in the U.K. haven't either despite astronomically more infections and far more vaccinations.

How well do you think communities that are dependent on flying doctors would fare? The geography that makes it easier for us to prevent outbreaks through our border containment would make it a huge disadvantage once it spreads. What do you think should be done to protect vulnerable aboriginal communities?

@Warhertisuff
No, uk has 90% ADULTS single vaccinated assume it will eventually be 90% + adults double vaccinated but to get herd immunity through vax you need to get all children vaccinated too and nobody is vaccinating children under 11 yet.

This is where the UK has an “advantage” as it were as so many of the not yet vaxxed, have been ill. This gives us a shot at herd immunity that Australia will not get for a very long time as this rate

I didn’t realise we were so high. That is pretty good without health pass scenes as in some other countries.

@DetMcNulty

How well do you think communities that are dependent on flying doctors would fare? The geography that makes it easier for us to prevent outbreaks through our border containment would make it a huge disadvantage once it spreads. What do you think should be done to protect vulnerable aboriginal communities?

Obviously persuade as many as possible to be vaccinated. Small communities have had plenty of time to learn from other small communities, so you would expect detailed plans and preparations to be in place already to help those who get unwell. Places like Shetland Isles would be good examples; they had outbreaks early and did well because they were ready to provide lots of early care in the islands. Doctors from remote communities in other countries will surely already have been asked for advice?

Plans should hopefully include assuming covid until test results come in, supplies of oxygen / concentrators, with additional healthcare staff on alert to be flown in and much lower health thresholds for when patients should be flown to bigger city hospital ICUs, plenty of PPE for healthcare staff (double gloves etc make volumes high). Solo healthcare workers might need extra helpers from the community trained up to help for short periods in extreme emergency scenarios such as the healthcare staff themselves suddenly becoming unwell; just learning how to contact the flying doctor, how to wear PPE properly and be trained to safely put someone in prone position with oxygen mask while awaiting help.

Oh I know, I’m disturbed that they are ruining peoples livelihoods by not allowing them to work until they get the vaccine. And this is only for those construction workers in areas of concern not every construction worker. These suburbs are multicultural blue collar workers that need to provide for multigenerational family members. They don’t really have a choice.
The army and police are patrolling the areas, police were at my local bunnings warehouse fining couples shopping together today.
The thing that worries me is they will move the goal posts again, they’ll say there’s too many people in hospital even when we reach vax targets and be locked down again.
I will add I’m in greater Sydney so my perspective is different to someone living in QLD or WA.

The thing that worries me is they will move the goal posts again, they’ll say there’s too many people in hospital even when we reach vax targets and be locked down again.
To be really blunt with you here, this may absolutely be necessary. The vaccine target is very low for Delta variant and you may find take-up is patchy, with some will need it not being vaccinated. Despite lots of covid infections and vaccinations, the UK still has a number of people needing hospital treatment. It will be harder in Australia because you don't have anything on top of vaccine immunity. So higher restrictions may be needed to flatten the curve if hospitals get overwhelmed.

There’s no way Dan Andrew’s will be able to keep locking down his citizens once 80% are jabbed. He might think he can and that might be what public opinion favours now but once people are double jabbed the fear factor dissipates. I’ve witnessed this amongst my own family and friends here in U.K. My own parents went from not concerned at all, to very very concerned, then double jabbed, and back to not concerned at all and planning overseas trips by the dozen. This is the way the vast majority in the U.K. feel right now, hence us opening up and accepting cases. The power of the double jab on reducing public fear is not to be underestimated and when public opinion turns, which it will in Australia too, then no politician can do much about it.
A colleague of mine ( bearing in mind we work in a London hospital) practically wore a hazmat suit for much of 2020. Double jabbed by February and immediately switched to we have to live with it, I want to go on holiday, I hate wearing a mask

@newstart1234

I don’t understand the end game, or point that they’re aiming for. It feels like half the people I know have had covid by now, the vast majority once they had had the vaccine. I only know a handful who had covid last year. My confusion is why they’ve put so much riding on the vaccine take-up when it is not a silver bullet to getting cases low anyway. Test test test, the who even said lockdowns should be a last resort. Maybe my perception of aus is simply wrong but I thought there’d be a more sophisticated approach 18 months from the start of this thing.

I really appreciate the discussion here because it’s fascinating to hear it from locals or ex locals.

I don’t know the end game either. I agree, lockdowns should be last resort but here they are the first resort. The A.C.T locked down for 1 case 2 days ago. (They now have 7 cases, close contacts of the first case).

Yes the fear dissipates

Here we had daily stats etc and it really worked

In Aus you had we are safe don’t be like the ROW

But both messages will start to fall away as vaccination is done. Not least because who wants to lock down double vaccinated and see fewer freedoms than other countries

An approach works better if you can have more freedom not less.

@MRex

The thing that worries me is they will move the goal posts again, they’ll say there’s too many people in hospital even when we reach vax targets and be locked down again. To be really blunt with you here, this may absolutely be necessary. The vaccine target is very low for Delta variant and you may find take-up is patchy, with some will need it not being vaccinated. Despite lots of covid infections and vaccinations, the UK still has a number of people needing hospital treatment. It will be harder in Australia because you don't have anything on top of vaccine immunity. So higher restrictions may be needed to flatten the curve if hospitals get overwhelmed.

To what end? People here are already lockdown fatigued, especially Victoria, and greater Sydney is entering its 9th? Week (lost count). People will lose it if they lock us down again after doing what they’ve asked. Scott Morrison said that if absolutely necessary they will lockdown suburbs or LGAs that have outbreaks but I don’t believe a word he says.

@Ineedsomebody - I've no idea how people are still putting up with your current strict lockdowns for such low case levels, but vaccination over the next few months means the end of that stage is in sight. At the point when Australia opens up, cases will come, the "to what end" is that you may still need to slow the spread at that point so that your hospitals are not overwhelmed trying to care for those who will still need hospital treatment.

They are using fear to get everyone to comply. Either fear of the virus or fear of the government/police.
I guess I just have to sit tight and wait until sanity prevails.

The Shetland Islands are in no way comparable to the aboriginal communities with the poverty and health issues they unfortunately experience, and distrust of government. We also owe it to them to do all we can to protect them. Paying them to be vaccinated maybe best way forward.

@DetMcNulty

The Shetland Islands are in no way comparable to the aboriginal communities with the poverty and health issues they unfortunately experience, and distrust of government. We also owe it to them to do all we can to protect them. Paying them to be vaccinated maybe best way forward.

Ah, you're thinking just about vaccines (and have zero awareness that Shetland Isles has a much older than average population, with outbreaks before any vaccinations). There are a few issues there. 1) Even if you vaccinate everyone, they need time for immunity to kick in, but there are cases right now in Dubbo and surrounding small communities. 2) Some will still refuse vaccines whatever you offer, young children can't be vaccinated but may have diabetes etc. 3) The few unvaccinated and some who have been vaccinated may still need medical help right now, or when Australia opens up. Hopefully all the prep work is in place to manage rapid test turnaround and those needing hospital support from these remote counties. Is it all prepped?

[quote MRex]@Ineedsomebody - I've no idea how people are still putting up with your current strict lockdowns for such low case levels, but vaccination over the next few months means the end of that stage is in sight. At the point when Australia opens up, cases will come, the "to what end" is that you may still need to slow the spread at that point so that your hospitals are not overwhelmed trying to care for those who will still need hospital treatment.[/quote]
What choice do we have? Even if we don’t agree with never ending lockdowns they are heavily policed with large fines being handed out.

I try and get people to see how crazy everything has become here but most people look at you like you’re some sort of conspiracy theorist for daring to question the all knowing government.

I’m not in NSW or VIC but people there must be losing their minds by now. Even in the non lockdown states you can’t plan anything as you could be locked down at any time for just one case. Everyone in South Australia has to wear a mask in indoor spaces and it’s crazy. I only wear one when I have no choice.

Sometimes I just feel like screaming at people ‘can’t you see how crazy this all is, are you out of your mind?’. But I don’t of course

No, it definitely is not prepped, as can be seen in nsw now by the fact the regional healthcare system can already not cope as announced by AMA today.

I am Scottish, live in WA now, so am aware of the islands (used to work across them), they're just not comparable to here.

Ok, well if there's no prep and not enough vaccines then perhaps they won't fare very well.

I don't know what kind of other point you're trying to make based on my responses, so I will just leave it there @DetMcNulty.

Daft question, it affects Friend of a Friend...

What economic support are NZ or Aus. giving to businesses that were heavily dependent on international tourists -- and haven't been able to rustle up a lot of domestic customers in pandemic era?

When I read NZ proposed policy I thought "They are presuming that almost the only type of person who ever wanted to travel (or could afford to travel to) NZ will be double vaccinated. That they can afford to lose the types of tourists who are vaccine resistant."

The point is lockdowns ( preferably short and sharp) are only options at moment until vax can be done, and the other mitigations are finalised, without impacting the people who benefit the least from opening up borders.

Just been reading some of The Age / SMH Covid blog.

My god some Victorians are lockdown zealots. They are outraged by photos of people on the beach or walking in a park in Sydney without masks. They just won’t be happy until everyone is as miserable as they are.

Then there’s the usual hand wringing about long Covid, Covid in children and best of all long Covid in children. It’s as though before Covid nobody ever got sick or died.

@DetMcNulty

The point is lockdowns ( preferably short and sharp) are only options at moment until vax can be done, and the other mitigations are finalised, without impacting the people who benefit the least from opening up borders.

You really believe all the border closures will disappear and lockdowns will stop once we get to 80% vaccinated?

If all else fails I guess the feds can threaten to no pay GST to the offending states.