Australia in a mess - NZ with a plan

[StartupRepair]

More than half of Australia is in lockdown now, sparked (imo) by the intransigence of the NSW Premier who ignored all warnings about Delta. Our procurement of and messaging around vaccines has been dangerously incompetent.
It all feels a bit bleak today. At least NZ seems to have a plan.

@disco123 - each group had a period to get the vaccine, then persuasion effort (3 calls from GP surgery, lots of news articles, politicians stressing the importance of getting jabbed, vaccine buses sent to areas of low take-up, walk-in slots etc) and only then was it considered offered to open for the next group. Anyone from the earlier groups could always still book at any time, but the point was putting focus on getting as many done in each band as possible. 20% of the UK population are under 16, I imagine it's a similar proportion in Australia, so we would need 100% of adults vaccinated to hit your 80% target for opening borders.

No its not its 16+

www.pm.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/national-plan-to-transition-australias-national-covid-19-response-30-july-2021.pdf

Although thats end July its still the gov document referenced.

Say 15% of the Australian population are under 12 (profile.id.com.au/australia/five-year-age-groups), and then you vaccinate 80% of over 12s. Population of 25.8m means 21.93m can be vaccinated; intent to vaccinate 17.54m. Where are those people coming from if you're already vaccinating healthy people in their 30s?

It looks like ATAGI actually have a similar conclusion to here in that although authorised for 12 + they are currently only considering high risk children and looking at balance of evidence before ruling on general population 12-16.
www.health.gov.au/news/atagi-statement-regarding-vaccination-of-adolescents-aged-12-15-years

Right, so at 16+ you already lose 20% of the population as kids, then 80% of the rest is only 64% of the population. That's fewer than the UK already has double jabbed never mind the extra 10% on first dose, and we aren't vaccinating under 16s. So it's a more realistic goal, if you can double back to get more of your vulnerable vaccinated, but makes that article look even more ridiculous because Australia's target vaccination is lower than the UK's current vaccination rate plus we have large numbers who have immunity from infections to reduce spread / hospitalisations.

It will be interesting wont it as at our v high vaccination/natural immunity rate there's still huge number of cases and some hospital needs etc. I can't see Australia really preparing for that. More the hope that at 80% all is okay.

Certainly that Age article had no clue they'd be opening up at far less vaccinated/immune than we have here now and conisders us having "let rip!" And that was a health director....

Indeed. Let rip at some arbitrary vaccination target meanwhile thousands of kids miss weeks of schooling

@disco123

Although anyone that's willing to take AZ could get it tomorrow, no matter which group.

DS is in his 20's, in Sydney, and had his first AZ vaccine 8 weeks ago. The nurse actively tried to dissuade him from having his, saying that he'd be able to get the Pfizer in 5 weeks. He was happy to proceed, and is planning to get his 2nd jab at 12 weeks, as per the original recommendation - unless anything changes in the meantime in his local area.

Children 12 and over who are vulnerable, indigenous etc are already being vaccinated now. Once they and the adults are done I'm sure they'll offer the rest too. And if it's approved for 5 to 12s by then I expect it'll be offered to them to.

There are efforts underway to encourage the vaccine hesitant to come forward and I'm confident that most will.

Yes, I think the calculation of risk changes when you have active cases in the community. And anecdotally there were 60s and up who were happy to " wait for Pfizer" before but have now realised that they won't be offered it until ALL the young people have been done. So they're caving and going for AZ. But vaccination rates are most impressive in NSW for obvious reasons.

@disco123

Yes, I think the calculation of risk changes when you have active cases in the community. And anecdotally there were 60s and up who were happy to " wait for Pfizer" before but have now realised that they won't be offered it until ALL the young people have been done. So they're caving and going for AZ. But vaccination rates are most impressive in NSW for obvious reasons.

But that is crazy! One of the biggest issues around AZ is the messaging. Yes I know there is a very very small risk of blood clot but the messaging by the government and health officials has been woeful.

If a situation is created where over 60s don't want the vaccine they have been offered (blame lies completely with politicians and press) then get them the bloody Pfizer. Vaccinating a 60 year old is probably the same as vaccinating a large amount of youngsters.

It's crazy, it's daft, it's completely unnecessary. You will never be able to open if you don't have the vulnerable vaccinated at very very high levels

Wow so potentially huge numbers of over 60s waiting until after younger people are done. That's massively gone wrong somewhere.

Yep it’s crazy.
There are heaps of over 60s that have not been vaccinated (not sure the percentage) due to the mixed messaging about AZ.
They have moved on to the rest to get their 80% target no matter the cost.
The Doherty institute is calculating 1500 deaths in 6 months at 80% vaccinated. Does that seem right to the UK peeps?

This is a graphic from 2 days ago. Australia is a hell of a long way from 70 or 80% and doing poorly in protecting First Nations. twitter.com/lesleygreen5/status/1430291922845716480?s=19

I mean in an ideal world everyone would be able to have their choice of vaccine but the reality is that supplies are limited so Pfizer has been allocated for the people who are least likely to have complications from it.

I'm not sure if there's many places where people have been offered a choice, maybe in the USA?

I know in the UK there was no choice, and (anecdotally again) if people had been able to choose then a fair few would have chosen Pfizer over AZ.

Lawks-a-lordy, 919 cases in NSW.
(I mean, sure it's less than a quarter of the cases in Tokyo alone, but then everyone here seems to have decided to live with the virus, judging by the busy restaurants etc.)

Time to get jabbing very fast, everyone. Get that AZ out the back of the fridge! There's still time to get the elderly, CV, indigenous people done.

The vaccines must have been deployed relatively strategically because Sydney’s deaths remain low. 900+ cases today and 2 deaths. Yes deaths lag by a few weeks but this is still looking like a well controlled outbreak in terms of overall outcomes.

[quote StartupRepair]This is a graphic from 2 days ago. Australia is a hell of a long way from 70 or 80% and doing poorly in protecting First Nations. twitter.com/lesleygreen5/status/1430291922845716480?s=19[/quote]
Yes, that's why we're not releasing all the restrictions and opening up yet! Despite people who don't live in Aus criticising this decision.

When comparing cases and deaths it may also ( as well as vaccines) be good testing strategy that makes deaths seem low as compared to say the U.K.. the British testing strategy of allowing people to test themselves and making it difficult for people to claim sick pay if they tested positive was a huge mistake. If anyone wanted they would avoid being tested so they wouldn’t lose work by testing positive.

Now I know that not all the over 60s are vaccinated the lockdowns certainly make more sense. Waiting till under 40s are double jabbed to get kids back to school, reunite families, get businesses going etc is odd though. The second jab provides enduring immunity; the gains in strength are marginal the in younger population.

I honestly don’t know how people in their 60s+ have managed to avoid getting jabbed - they’ve been able to for 5 months and were a priority for about 3 months, along with health staff, aged care staff etc. The full rollout didn’t start until about 2 months ago.
The rest of Australia can’t be held back because some people who were in a priority group decided not to bother to get vaccinated. I know that’s harsh, but we’ve been vaccinating for months. I had my flu jab back in April and even my local GP surgery we’re jabbing priority only people (because I asked if they would do me and they said no, priority only).

Assuming the UK is now at 80% double jabbed, the number of deaths is around 90 I think and fully back to normal. Australia’s population is around 1/5 I believe so in a year or so if it goes back to normal I imagine they’d be around 18 deaths a day. So 3240 each 6 months period. I assume if the restrictions were mostly switched off overnight as is being suggested the first few months would be a bit more bumpy.

I mean the UK is back to normal mostly. There are still travel test requirements and also specific rules to follow before getting hospital treatment. They’ll be other things too but day to day life is normal.

Well exactly. No country is going to go back to "normal" overnight.

@newstart1234

Assuming the UK is now at 80% double jabbed, the number of deaths is around 90 I think and fully back to normal. Australia’s population is around 1/5 I believe so in a year or so if it goes back to normal I imagine they’d be around 18 deaths a day. So 3240 each 6 months period. I assume if the restrictions were mostly switched off overnight as is being suggested the first few months would be a bit more bumpy.

So the reported 1500 is likely low and considering a portion of the elderly won’t be vaccinated even 3000 may be low. Sigh. I don’t see how we will ever come out of endless lockdowns when hospitals become overwhelmed. The premiers have already said at 80% vaccinated lockdowns will still occur if necessary as a last resort. I’ve stopped believing them.