Latest SAGE document 'realistic possibility' Sars-cov2 will mutate to MERS fatality rate

[Lauras315]

Well I read this last night at 2am and then could not sleep at all. Was not expecting anything like this and shocked this has been allowed to be viewed by the public. Seems like something is very wrong for this to be allowed to be seen and especially with what is happening in the US. I had read about mareks disease maybe sonething similar is happening now? Or maybe like I always thought this virus came as a result of gof rsearch from the lab in wuhan and maybe the virus is just mutating in this direction because of that (increased virulence) in comparison to a natural virus . Well not sure what to do now
www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021

You know people who predict end of the world, everyone calls them crackpots, misguided ill informed uneducated people who are loony.

Here we have SAGE making wild predictions and people take them seriously...naw they are just the same as those doomsday people.

That said if you have asked almost anyone when this thing started that 500 days later it would be raging around much of the world unabated I for one would have ridiculed them. With Covid sadly expect the unexpected. We in the rich countries hopefully might be entering the end game but in many of the poorer countries, it is raging brutally. Myanmar is on the brink of societal collapse.

@Dreamstate

You know people who predict end of the world, everyone calls them crackpots, misguided ill informed uneducated people who are loony.

Here we have SAGE making wild predictions and people take them seriously...naw they are just the same as those doomsday people.

It sounds like contingency planning rather than predictions. They are supposed to do that.

@vera99

That said if you have asked almost anyone when this thing started that 500 days later it would be raging around much of the world unabated I for one would have ridiculed them. With Covid sadly expect the unexpected. We in the rich countries hopefully might be entering the end game but in many of the poorer countries, it is raging brutally. Myanmar is on the brink of societal collapse.

Oh so nothing to do with the fact there has been a military coup that's disrupted their vaccine rollout...oh no its solely down to that dastardly virus instead. At least repeot the facts its not just down to the virus!

It's so worrying, I agree they need to cover all possible angles and these things get seized on by media needing to sell clicks.

One hopes that scientists who do the vaccines have already worked all of this out and are working on worse case scenario vaccines.

One in three death scenario... How would we combat that? I mean in a another lock down or would it be more infectious??

Yes the coup has a huge role to play in Myanmar but Malaysia healthcare system is at the point of collapse as is Thailand with the delta peak estimated to be the middle of September. Against an unvaccinated population, delta is absolutely brutal.

www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/malaysia-s-young-doctors-experiencing-burnout-due-to-covid-19-15188604

This is a government hospital in Bangkok a nurse is heard saying, “We can't take it anymore. We really can't take it anymore."

twitter.com/BenchaMFP/status/1420750352488407047

To those rude posters calling me stupid or fear mongering or unable to understand risk assesment how very kind of you and no I am not fear mongering I remeber this place from the beginning where in China they were building hospitals/videos were coming out of people dropping dead/they were disinfecting the streets and had locked down millions of people and sealed them into there homes and you all said the virus was nothing and that I was fear mongering too so will not pay any attention to you I think the fact is you are afraid of something that is may or may not happen and cannot face facts that this I'd a real possibility. I would like to know why SAGE made over half of the country and those not at high risk take the vaccine when they knew most are not at serious risk of covid and that it was a leaky vaccine that was not effective at stopping transmission as it is known vaccinating with a leaky vaccine is risky ala mareks disease and can force the virus to mutate to evade the immune response and when it is circulating more widely (so now) so I cannot understand the reason for the change of only vaccinating those most vulnerable to vaccinate everyone and kids?

Your latest post is a rambling mess. My suggestion would be some punctuation and paragraphs with points clearly made.

Explain 'leaky'.

Must try harder if you want people to take you seriously.

@Lauras315

To those rude posters calling me stupid or fear mongering or unable to understand risk assesment how very kind of you and no I am not fear mongering I remeber this place from the beginning where in China they were building hospitals/videos were coming out of people dropping dead/they were disinfecting the streets and had locked down millions of people and sealed them into there homes and you all said the virus was nothing and that I was fear mongering too so will not pay any attention to you I think the fact is you are afraid of something that is may or may not happen and cannot face facts that this I'd a real possibility. I would like to know why SAGE made over half of the country and those not at high risk take the vaccine when they knew most are not at serious risk of covid and that it was a leaky vaccine that was not effective at stopping transmission as it is known vaccinating with a leaky vaccine is risky ala mareks disease and can force the virus to mutate to evade the immune response and when it is circulating more widely (so now) so I cannot understand the reason for the change of only vaccinating those most vulnerable to vaccinate everyone and kids?

Wuh?

Oh, that’s the agenda…

Leaky vaccines, eh? The same ones that have prevented thousands of deaths. This wave would be horrific without them.

Eh?

@TheTallOakTrees

Your latest post is a rambling mess. My suggestion would be some punctuation and paragraphs with points clearly made.

Explain 'leaky'.

Must try harder if you want people to take you seriously.

A leaky vaccine is one that does not confer sterilizing immunty and thus herd immunty is not achievable with one. Also leaky vaccines and high prevalence of virus provide the perfect environment for immune escape. All of these are well known scientific concepts as is the term leaky vaccine.

There also is the issue with a leaky vaccine of a mareks disease scenario hence as talked about in the SAGE paper with the more deadly variants which is what happened in mareks disease as a result of vaccination but insult me and let's pretend these things do not exist if you wish that worked so well at the beginning of this pandemic

That was a much better reply, not rambling and concise.

Every week we have more proof that the vaccine programme is working and breaking the link with death and hospilisation. To achieve herd immunity a high number of people need vaccinating. Given than children are not vaccinated and anti vaxxers are doing their very best to spread misinformation to put others off, perhaps you should direct your anger to them.

So what do you want governments to do @Lauras315

And my main question is knowing this is a non sterilizing vaccine what where the scientific reason for vaccinating those that are lowest risk from covid healthy young people and teenagers (who's ifr risk is 0.001%- 0.01% age 25) also the reason in vaccinating those who already had and recovered from covid as immunity is found to be long lasting and more robust than vaccines and reinfection rare www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/lasting-immunity-found-after-recovery-covid-19.
Also why are they basing it on a herd immunity response when 1. Leaky vaccines do not achieve herd immunty and 2. Herd immunity is unlikely with a corinavirus. In fact vaccinating against a coronavirus is generally a bad idea and will not work as we are about to find out but SAGE have literally made non stop mistakes throughout the entire pandemic so I am not surprised.

@TheTallOakTrees

So what do you want governments to do *@Lauras315*

Good question I am afraid that the cat is out of the bag and we should of followed china/south korea/Hong kong/nz lead at the beginning strict lockdown and full border closure but as we can see now even in those countries they will get outbreaks and that would mean closing borders till covid is gone which is impossible. Also covid has many animal reservoirs so this is impossible simply. The only thing we can hope for is that a mutation happens that may be very transmissable but with an even lower ifr (although i would say this one is fairly low) and we let that circulate without intervention and shield the most vulnerable

Also i would say universal mask wearing to lower viral loads and lots of ventillation in public indoor spaces the amount of places I have been where windows and doors are shut baffles me ...

Even with a non sterilising vaccine it reduces the death rate and impact on hospital admissions rate. Surely that is a massive success.

Some vaccines sterilise and others don't so we need a larger number vaccinated.

Do you suggest constant lock down instead.

Are you pro or anti vax OP

Zero Covid will never work purely because it would take a global effort. There are not enough countries even considering it, let alone attempting it for that ever to work.

Lockdowns and restrictions work short term, however there is growing resistance to these measures. Eventually compliance will crumble to the point that they will not longer work.

We’ve seen it in the UK, compliance has fallen each and every time they have brought in restrictions/ a lockdown. We will be very unlikely to ever see the results we saw with the first one. There are fears now that people are ignoring symptoms and no longer testing in an attempt to avoid isolation.

What we really need is a global strategy for a consistent approach to control/ eliminate/ live with the virus. Every country having their own strategy/ agenda just creates confusion and resentment.

@TheTallOakTrees

Even with a non sterilising vaccine it reduces the death rate and impact on hospital admissions rate. Surely that is a massive success.

Some vaccines sterilise and others don't so we need a larger number vaccinated.

Do you suggest constant lock down instead.

Are you pro or anti vax OP

I am pro vaccine just believe these ones have been used wrong. I believe only those at risk of serious disease due to age or co morbidies should of been vaccinated and it is clear what ages need and and those that do not by looking at the differences in ifr. Those young with vulnerabilities should also get it but for most it is not necessary especially as the vaccines do not stop or substantially lower transmission. Most of those young and school age will already have antibodies to previous exposure also.

And I dont want to sound like I am bashing the vaccines they are very helpful in preventing those at risk from hospitalisation which was the main point of them just do not see the need in vaccinating everyone. Those vaccines could also of been given to other countries for them to vaccinate the most at risk too. But I believe they thought these had a much bigger impact on transmission and they do for the original wuhan strain they are based on however for the delta variant does not seem to be anything worth while unfortunately. But yes the vaccines have helped keep the hospitals for now not overwhelmed thankfully

@springrainbow .. totally agree. The fact is the Chinese govenrment should of shut the borders when they knew about it instead of trying to cover it up for months and the WHO were completely useless and i was so shocked at what I was witnessing in eatching the first press conferences. The way they played it down and said it was no problem and waited until it was in over 160 countries to call it a pandemic and when tedros said that border closures would be racist I couldn't believe what I was seeing?

Anyway the fact is there is a bsl4 and bsl4 lab in wuhan that specifically works on risky resreach (gain of function making natural viruses transmissable to human ACE2 receptors using animal passage and humanized mice) on bat corianviruses (the only lab in the whole of china doing this work) they should of shut borders to China on news of the first incidence of even possible and not confirmed human to human transmission yet they just let it in which is something I will never understand why.

[quote Lauras315]@springrainbow .. totally agree. The fact is the Chinese govenrment should of shut the borders when they knew about it instead of trying to cover it up for months and the WHO were completely useless and i was so shocked at what I was witnessing in eatching the first press conferences. The way they played it down and said it was no problem and waited until it was in over 160 countries to call it a pandemic and when tedros said that border closures would be racist I couldn't believe what I was seeing?

Anyway the fact is there is a bsl4 and bsl4 lab in wuhan that specifically works on risky resreach (gain of function making natural viruses transmissable to human ACE2 receptors using animal passage and humanized mice) on bat corianviruses (the only lab in the whole of china doing this work) they should of shut borders to China on news of the first incidence of even possible and not confirmed human to human transmission yet they just let it in which is something I will never understand why.[/quote]
Yeah, I don’t get the obsession (especially in Europe) of boarders remaining open for large portions of the pandemic.

Boarder restrictions are another thing that should have been done on a global scale really.