Latest SAGE document 'realistic possibility' Sars-cov2 will mutate to MERS fatality rate

[Lauras315]

Well I read this last night at 2am and then could not sleep at all. Was not expecting anything like this and shocked this has been allowed to be viewed by the public. Seems like something is very wrong for this to be allowed to be seen and especially with what is happening in the US. I had read about mareks disease maybe sonething similar is happening now? Or maybe like I always thought this virus came as a result of gof rsearch from the lab in wuhan and maybe the virus is just mutating in this direction because of that (increased virulence) in comparison to a natural virus . Well not sure what to do now
www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021

@Geamhradh Mr Johnson would not have a condom packet to scribble anything on.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-deadlier-coronavirus-variant-a-realistic-possibility-sage-warns-12368798

It’s all sounding quite doom and gloom here too 🤷‍♀️ Don’t like the fact that they think it’s is almost “certain” and a matter of time for a variant that is not affected by vaccines.

It's a realistic possibility but that's very different to a realistic probability.

"Could" is materially different to "likely".

@2boysand1princess

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-deadlier-coronavirus-variant-a-realistic-possibility-sage-warns-12368798

It’s all sounding quite doom and gloom here too 🤷‍♀️ Don’t like the fact that they think it’s is almost “certain” and a matter of time for a variant that is not affected by vaccines.

*The emergence of a new COVID variant with a similar death rate to MERS, which kills one in three infected people, is a "realistic possibility", the government's scientific advisers have warned.

However the experts also say the virus could result in "much less severe disease" in older people and those who are clinically vulnerable in the long term.*

The first two paragraphs detail both the worst AND best scenarios.

Basically, they are paid to predict what could happen. They don’t really know what will happen.

No one does.

They don’t know - They are looking at the worst case and best case scenario, however “Covid could become like the common cold” doesn’t quite make for such dramatic headlines as “Covid could kill us all” I’m an anxious person normally but I won’t worry about it until or indeed if it does happen

How anyone believes a word sage says is beyond me

They have been proved wrong every time

Yes, I don't believe a word they say any more. You can only scare the shit out of.people for so long, then it loses its power, and the scare stories are getting ever more ridiculous. Its almost laughable. I'm getting on with my life, I thought most others were doing the same except for the holidays

Antigenic drift: A gradual or punctuated accumulation of antigenic variation that eventually
leads to current vaccine failure. Worst case is that this drift combines with significant
antigenic sin (vaccination resulting in an immune response that is dominated by antibodies
to previously experienced viruses/vaccines) meaning that it becomes difficult to
revaccinate to induce antibodies to the new strains. Genetic and antigenic drift are almost
inevitable. Antigenic sin has not yet been reported for SARS-CoV-2 so we consider this
possibility less likely.
Likelihood: Almost certain

Those worriers me ALMOST CERTAIN

ODFOD21

If it's gradual, it will be covered by seasonal boosters (as well as infection acquired population immunity).

In all probability, it'll all be fine.

@ODFOD21

*Antigenic drift: A gradual or punctuated accumulation of antigenic variation that eventually leads to current vaccine failure. Worst case is that this drift combines with significant antigenic sin (vaccination resulting in an immune response that is dominated by antibodies to previously experienced viruses/vaccines) meaning that it becomes difficult to revaccinate to induce antibodies to the new strains. Genetic and antigenic drift are almost inevitable. Antigenic sin has not yet been reported for SARS-CoV-2 so we consider this possibility less likely. Likelihood: Almost certain*

Those worriers me ALMOST CERTAIN

It says "eventually" and "current vaccines". We know they will be updated

mobile.twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1421453454216765440

[quote newnortherner111]@Geamhradh Mr Johnson would not have a condom packet to scribble anything on.[/quote]
True dat.

@SpringRainbow

All governments will have a plan in place (or at least should have) for absolutely everything.

Just like all businesses and organisations should have a plan in place for everything.

Do you work? Have you ever read your workplaces risk assessment?

I once was given the task of proofreading my old workplaces updated risk assessment. It was quite alarming the things they had to think about.

Not sure what happened to the risk assessment after I checked it. Probably got shoved back wherever it was stored before.

This! I’ve signed off risk assessments for bombs or active shooters in my workplace (definitely not the kind of place that would be a terror target), wild animal attacks in the middle of the city, etc.

If I’ve planned for things like that in my very boring workplace, I certainly hope the government have plans for lots of unlikely eventualities.

Why has this been published though I can't see a point in putting this into the public domain however necessary it may be in overall planning?That said I have idly wondered what are the theoretical limits of Covid evolution which must surely be reached at some point. I need wonder no longer.

I am astounded at the number of people that seem not to be aware that governments plan for possible scenarios of all kinds.

They have plans for pandemics, nuclear attack, cyber attack, environmental disaster and a million and one other things.

It is as if people have been sleepwalking through life completely unaware how the world works until Covid came along.

People now read something like this and go into panic mode as they do not have the comprehension skills needed to understand what the document is actually saying or the context that it is written in.

They don't have crystal balls and they have laid out the various most likely possibilities, but that doesn't mean they expect any of them to happen. Just that they could.

It wouid be irresponsible not to scenario plan

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1421216636607082499

[quote vera99]twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1421216636607082499[/quote]
Tbf the wording of her thread is very irresponsible considering she must know that is not actually what the document is saying

How can you even take SAGE seriously, every prediction has been wildly wrong.

You have to be an utter mug to give them any headspace.

They are now saying expect 1million cases, there 100k cases didn't even materialise so wtaf. They just have no credibility and it's not wonder people and lots of people are ignoring them.

@Dreamstate

How can you even take SAGE seriously, every prediction has been wildly wrong.

You have to be an utter mug to give them any headspace.

They are now saying expect 1million cases, there 100k cases didn't even materialise so wtaf. They just have no credibility and it's not wonder people and lots of people are ignoring them.

It helps if you see them as the people paid to give you the absolute worst case scenario possible.

That is kind of how I see them. The party poopers of the Covid world. The ones that want to remind you of all the possible dangers lurking in the shadows.

I acknowledge what they predict and then just see what actually happens.

You just know if you met Chris Whitty at a party he would be nursing an Evian on his own in the corner looking at his watch calculating at what point he could leave without offending his hosts.

[quote newnortherner111]@Geamhradh Mr Johnson would not have a condom packet to scribble anything on.[/quote]
🤣🤣🤣

Actually very funny but scarily accurate as they've just announced Boris Jr number .....? Is being baked!

@vera99

You just know if you met Chris Whitty at a party he would be nursing an Evian on his own in the corner looking at his watch calculating at what point he could leave without offending his hosts.

I can see it now!

@vera99

You just know if you met Chris Whitty at a party he would be nursing an Evian on his own in the corner looking at his watch calculating at what point he could leave without offending his hosts.

He would! Never has a man looked less happy to be a) in the public eye b) the only sane person in the room when he'd rather be at home pottering in the garden and enjoying a fondant fancy with Mrs Whitty. (no euphemism intended)

But isn't vaccine resistance exactly what happens with flu, and why a flu jab us needed every year, to keep up with new variants? No one had a problem with that? #

@foxandbee

Interesting that the first post OP makes (or name changes to make) has such a scaremongering title.

Yep