The UK may have got it right

[VioletRiemelt]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57911032

Australians back in lockdown, while our restrictions are gone. Our exit wave could be over by September.

Sorry @sashagabadon cross posted - I see you have answered that you think the vaccines are enough

Sounds like I need some 'Mac n chise' in my life, I've been following the official statistics on the Government data dashboard and I am not optimistic that restrictions, if not full lockdown, will be needed to stop the NHS getting overloaded.

Yes I am in favour of lifting the restrictions as they have done and letting people wear masks if they choose. I still wear mine in shops and on tube etc and loads of others do too so I think that’s the right call. I was happy when tfl decided to add masks to terms of carriage. I think that was the right thing for Sadiq to do and doesn’t need a government mandate.

It’s ok if you don’t agree with me. We can all make our own minds up

I know “Mac n chise “ sounds ridiculous person to follow but honestly search his/ her account on Twitter. They are a senior scientist (they say) and certainly seem an expert without the politics.
Although I guess they could be a truck driver from Texas ( no offence to truck drivers from anywhere )
I read a recommendation of this account in Mumsnet.
It’s hard to know who is 100% genuine on Twitter especially as he/ she has a cartoon as his avatar!

I just really, really, really want the schools to run properly from September. I think the next 3 weeks are crucial & if the number of people on ventilators doubles again in the next 3 weeks (to over 1,200) the Government should apply the brakes then, no dithering, prioritise education.

I hope so too. I think they will ( but as stated before, I am always an optimistic )

I am optimistic too. I just cannot get my head around how the NHS will be overwhelmed given the high % of over 50s vaccinated. And yes I KNOW not everyone is vaccinated and especially the younger generation but I am optimistic that the vaccines are holding amongst those MOST likely to end up severely ill. Also that those that do end up in hospital will be there for less time. I also agree in opening up now. If not now then when? When schools go back? The autumn when flu and other viruses start to hit? It’s shit all round but can’t help feeling this is the better shit.

@Blessex

I am optimistic too. I just cannot get my head around how the NHS will be overwhelmed given the high % of over 50s vaccinated. And yes I KNOW not everyone is vaccinated and especially the younger generation but I am optimistic that the vaccines are holding amongst those MOST likely to end up severely ill. Also that those that do end up in hospital will be there for less time. I also agree in opening up now. If not now then when? When schools go back? The autumn when flu and other viruses start to hit? It’s shit all round but can’t help feeling this is the better shit.

I have friends who work in ICUs in the UK. Vaccines don't prevent the spread of this. They should help to prevent it from killing people.

When should restrictions have been lifted? When the population was fully vaccinated, rather than just 2/3 of it. As noted, restrictions have only been lifted now so the Tories can go on holiday without breaking rules.

As for the politics, well it would help if Johnson was just a liar. He's far worse than that.

@RumblyMumbly Data not dates. They sold us the idea that vaccines alone were the 'solution' to living with Covid, does that still stand with Delta?

The government tried to sell that idea. The vaccine doesn't prevent the spread of CV. It is juts supposed to help prevent people from dying of it. Delat is considerably more transmissable than the original variant. Delta is transmitting within 5-10 seconds of fleeting contact. People walking past each other in a shopping centre, sort of fleeting contact.

So lifting restrictions is a ridiculous thing to do, but they did it anyway. "personal responsibility" relies on people taking personal responsibility, and wearing masks/distancing. Instead, they're refusing to do either.

@Doodlebug71 I have friends who work in ICUs in the UK. Vaccines don't prevent the spread of this. They should help to prevent it from killing people.

We all know that tho right? Who said that vaccines would stop it spreading. They reduce the transmission but don’t stop it completely.

@Doodlebug71 When should restrictions have been lifted? When the population was fully vaccinated, rather than just 2/3 of it. As noted, restrictions have only been lifted now so the Tories can go on holiday without breaking rules.

70% have had two doses the majority of those are those most likely to have severe disease or death. We have to then choose when to open. Do we open when 85% have two doses. The majority of that additional 15% being those LESS likely to end up with severe disease. On balance I would say no. Then we open up when kids start back at school and when winter disease starts kicking in. This is all about balance. There is no ‘perfection’.

[quote Blessex]**@Doodlebug71* I have friends who work in ICUs in the UK. Vaccines don't prevent the spread of this. They should help to prevent it from killing people.*

We all know that tho right? Who said that vaccines would stop it spreading. They reduce the transmission but don’t stop it completely.[/quote]
Which is why it’s ridiculous to give vaccinated people exemptions from testing and isolation etc.

@bumbleymummy weeeellll yes if we are desperately trying to stop the virus spreading and kicking the can down the road. But surely we all realise that is not realistic now right ?

I know this sounds maybe premature to say this but I am kind of happy now my teenage DS has caught Covid last week and is now better again. Yes I know the stories about long Covid and etc etc etc and I would have preferred him vaccinated. But he wasn’t. He caught it. He’s better. We move on. Ditto my 17 year old nephew.

This virus is going to spread. It just is. It either spreads now or it spreads in Nov-Dec.

@Blessex

Another anecdote - my ex DH (italian) - fully vaccinated in the U.K. while his parents in Italy hadn’t had one jab. His DM ended up in hospital intubated with pneumonia. Thankfully came through.

Then his parents must be very young or have refused the vaccine. Or his anecdote is from very much earlier this year.

@Doodlebug71
Do you have any evidence of transmission happening within 5 seconds while walking past someone? Neutral question- I’d be surprised but don’t know.

If that’s actually the case I wouldn’t think delta is containable even with very harsh measures.

@Geamhradh his parents are mid 70s and this was May.

Nope they didn’t refuse. Just took a while to get to them.

[quote Blessex]@bumbleymummy weeeellll yes if we are desperately trying to stop the virus spreading and kicking the can down the road. But surely we all realise that is not realistic now right ?[/quote]
So why should we give certain groups (vaccinated) special treatment then?

@bumbleymummy I guess because the spread is significantly LESSENED with people vaccinated. They are LESS likely to pass it on so the spread it more controlled.

[quote Blessex]@Geamhradh his parents are mid 70s and this was May.[/quote]
Wow. Must be in an area not prioritising. I am 55 and had my second at the beginning of May.

[quote Blessex]@bumbleymummy I guess because the spread is significantly LESSENED with people vaccinated. They are LESS likely to pass it on so the spread it more controlled.[/quote]
So? The spread would be lessened and controlled even more if they kept the same rules for everyone.

People on ventilators update (@Rosehip10 feel free to scroll past)

20/10/20 698 patients 20/07/21 618 patients
21/10/20 712 patients 21/07/21 647 patients
22/10/20 708 patients 22/07/21 699 patients

Can you see why I am concerned notscaremongering now? That's an increase of 52 extra people needing ventilator beds from yesterdays figures.
@Blessex @sashagabadon as the optimists in the room, if the vaccinations are making all the difference then why is the trajectory so similar to the last wave on people needing ventilation?

I was optimistic until stage 3 and then Delta really took hold. I don't think it was the right time for stage 4 & especially opening indoor nightclubs is a reckless and foolish policy move (sorry young people, I know you've had a terrible time, get to outside raves instead) the Gov know that opening nightclubs made the Netherlands cases shoot up and their PM had to apologise to the country for doing so & reimpose restrictions.

Why do I have time on my hands at the moment to look at this? Because one of my DC is isolating from a case at school, so we are staying at home, what a rubbish start to the summer holidays! Sasha and Blessex I don't know if you have state school aged children but I live in the SE and the last few weeks were chaotic with bubbles bursting left, right and centre - it felt like the end of term before Christmas again. Last week 1 in 7 children were isolating from school cases. Experiencing that backdrop Johnson pushing to stage 4 feels insane!

@Geamhradh Milan

@bumbleymummy yep it would. But they need to turn the taps on a bit but not too much I guess.

@RumblyMumbly I am guessing the trajectory is the same but the ratio is completely different. A lot less.