Articles explaining how and why the U.K. govt's current covid plan is going to work?

[PrincessNutNuts]

Morning,

Please can you post any links you come across explaining how the U.K. government's current covid strategy is supposed to work, and why it's a good idea?

Cheers.

This'll be the shortest thread ever!

Pretty sure I haven't seen a single article on how the government's plans will work. Surely with rising cases it shows it won't work

I think it's just a picture of BoJo and co wearing blindfolds with their fingers in their ears going "lalalalala, can't see any problem, FREEDOM, what numbers, lalalala not listening".

Here are the Sage minutes; www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021. There is a lot of caution, but this seems to be the key element:
"Delaying step 4 by four weeks from 21st June has allowed many more vaccinations to be administered and moved the end of restrictions to a time point close to the school
holidays, when transmission is expected to be lower. Although a further delay to step 4 could have some additional positive impact by allowing more people to be
vaccinated, the effect of this would be much smaller than the effect of the current delay and it would push the wave further towards the autumn and winter."

At the heart of it is a belief that there will be a restrictions exit wave regardless of any other action, so therefore they would prefer for it to be in summer rather than winter. They acknowledge risks and want lots of nudge messaging to ensure the majority ease their way slowly out of restrictions, and I think we're seeing that.

This is the briefing where it was presented, again lots of emphasis on risks: .

The FT analysis isn't blindly supportive: amp.ft.com/content/fa4f248a-a476-491d-a5ce-f128360e9f24?__twitter_impression=true. This is an important statistic though in understanding why vaccination makes this possible: "the deaths-to-cases ratio has fallen from about one in 50 during the winter wave to one in 750".

@PrincessNutNuts most people are happy about today. You know, normal people who are keen to get on with life.
Most of your posts are anti-Tory rants, do you actually want the economy to implode?

Obviously I know you're not actually asking, you're just looking for an excuse to trot out your latest line again - is it still currently 'living with Covid will involve a lot less living than you might expect'? It's among your better ones, to be fair.

But for anyone who is actually interested and not just looking for an excuse to explain again why the UK should simply go back in time and become New Zealand I think this is quite a balanced article: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57751056

@HalzTangz

Pretty sure I haven't seen a single article on how the government's plans will work. Surely with rising cases it shows it won't work

Surely what rising numbers before lifting of restrictions shows is that the restrictions weren't working. I can see an argument for returning to tighter restrictions - shutting pubs etc - but I can't understand why so many people are devoted to a level of restrictions that clearly isn't controlling case numbers but which is keeping some businesses closed or not viable.

Well, I do understand it really. The restrictions we had in place yesterday are in a sweet spot for most MNers where they don't actually stop them doing things they personally want to do so they can vocally and self-righteously endorse them. It's always very easy to support sacrifices where it isn't you making any of the sacrifice.

[quote MyGardenSanctuary]**@PrincessNutNuts most people are happy about today. You know, normal people who are keen to get on with life.
Most of your posts are anti-Tory rants, do you actually want the economy to implode?[/quote]
I don’t know a single person who thinks that unlocking in this way and particularly ditching the compulsory masks right now is a good idea.

I’m an owner of a business severely affected by covid but I’d much rather less people die. And I don’t just mean from covid, am fairly sure in the longer term it will be clearer that more people died because of delays to treatment because of covid than actually covid.

Anyway @PrincessNutNuts
I can believe that now is a better time to do it than November but I have seen no scientific evidence whatsoever that it’s a good idea to do it.
From what I can gather Boris doesn’t think he can get support from his own MPs to push through any extension to restrictions. The only way he’s get it though would be with Labour votes. Which would be the beginning of the end of him (if it hasn’t happened already). So he’s put his party ahead of public health. He is knowingly putting millions at risk. Absolutely shameful behaviour.

[quote MyGardenSanctuary]@PrincessNutNuts most people are happy about today. You know, normal people who are keen to get on with life.
Most of your posts are anti-Tory rants, do you actually want the economy to implode?[/quote]
Actually most people want some restrictions to remain
www.reuters.com/world/uk/most-britons-want-covid-restrictions-remain-poll-2021-07-14/

I think the OPs question was perfectly valid and was not a rant. Whereas your post....

The economy and health are closely interrelated. The best way to support the economy is to get covid under control.

Interesting post.

I asked this myself on a thread the other day after watching an hour of ‘1200 scientists objecting to lifting of restrictions’ video.

The reason being that I like to try and see both sides of an argument before trying to form an opinion.

All I could find were those SAGE minutes and the modelling from Imperial College London which I could barely understand as I don’t speak that level of scientific/academic language.

The economy and health are closely interrelated. The best way to support the economy is to get covid under control.

And how would you do that? Because 'some restrictions', ie what was in place yesterday, isn't doing it

Here is the modelling for the easing of restrictions

www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-further-modelling-of-easing-restrictions-roadmap-step-4-on-19-july-2021-7-july-2021

It is very muddled. On one hand it argues that if pre pandemic behaviours take longer to return to pre pandemic levels then the wave could be shifted to autumn.

On the other hand it says that if behaviours change too quickly hospitals will be overwhelmed and we will have to reintroduce restrictions.

So it appears that neither is a good idea.

What it hasn't modelled however it the third option of delaying hosting big events etc until after everyone has had their 2nd vaccination.

@Hardbackwriter

The economy and health are closely interrelated. The best way to support the economy is to get covid under control.

And how would you do that? Because 'some restrictions', ie what was in place yesterday, isn't doing it

Just becuase things are bad doesn't mean they can't get worse.

The sensible strategy would be to increase the level of immunity in the population through vaccination before fully reopening.

And the award for Disingenuous Post Of The Day goes to...

Just becuase things are bad doesn't mean they can't get worse.

The sensible strategy would be to increase the level of immunity in the population through vaccination before fully reopening.

But just because things could be worse also doesn't mean they aren't bad? Would you support reimposing stricter restrictions? I just don't understand the argument that we must control infections until the correct level of vaccination (though that does seem to be a moving target) is met, but only by a very little bit. If that's what you want to do then why would you do it so poorly?

The chance of developing a vaccine resistant variant is the highest when 50% of the population is vaccinated which is where we are at the moment. This is exactly the time when you want case numbers to be low.

This is why the government is also so worried about beta and put France on the amber plus list. Beta has not spread much yet however it will soon have an advantage over delta in the UK as more people gain antibodies against delta. If this happens we are straight back into a harsh lockdown as AZ only provides 10% immunity to it.

You ask about my strategy. I wouldn't be in this position in the first place becuase I would have imposed restrictions on Indian travel earlier allowing more vaccination to take place first. Plus I prefer the strategy of introducing restrictions earlier when cases are low to present exponential growth rather than the endless cycle of lockdowns approach we currently use.

However lets say I was in this position I would
A) Be getting pfizer boosters into people asap
B) Wait until everyone 2 weeks post 2nd dose before even thinking about opening up further
C) Not be allowing any large events and restricting indoor socialising and if necessary reintroducibg tougher restrictions (and this is probably necessary as we have let things go too far).
D) Keeping masks and social distancing rules
E) offering voluntary vaccines to over 12s

And yes there would be an economic impact from stricter restrictions but it will be far far less than the impact from dealing with a vaccine resistant variant or having to shut down again because hospitals are overwhelmed.

Well, a big part of the government’s logic is that their modelling suggests delaying unlocking until later in the year would be worse. You can say they’re totally wrong about that I suppose, I know we’re all experts on here, but it’s at least worth a mention.

If you are convinced the government-commissioned modellers can’t be trusted then it might be worth a look at James Ward’s Twitter thread, as a mathematician not on SPI-M who sets out why his own modelling comes down roughly in favour of July 18th (albeit with some differences to govt plans): twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1413834989209272321

People need to start engaging with reality. The logic for reopening now is clear enough. It’s not a perfect approach, but then nothing is.

Delay until all adults are vaxxed, then the reopening wave collides with autumn/winter pressure on the nhs.

Trying to get numbers down to manageable levels would require months of hard lockdown. That’s assuming you get any compliance. Plus cases tend to skyrocket on reopening after hard lockdowns anyway.

If it’s not done now, there won’t be a better window until quarter 2 of 2022. And that’s assuming no new variant scares in the meantime.

@TheKeatingFive

People need to start engaging with reality. The logic for reopening now is clear enough. It’s not a perfect approach, but then nothing is.

Delay until all adults are vaxxed, then the reopening wave collides with autumn/winter pressure on the nhs.

Trying to get numbers down to manageable levels would require months of hard lockdown. That’s assuming you get any compliance. Plus cases tend to skyrocket on reopening after hard lockdowns anyway.

If it’s not done now, there won’t be a better window until quarter 2 of 2022. And that’s assuming no new variant scares in the meantime.

You know this might even make a bit of sense if it wasn't the case that opening now and having high cases in a partially vaxxed population IS MORE LIKELY TO LEAD TO A NEW VARIANT which is vaccine resistant.

We're positively rolling the red carpet out for a variant that will destroy the benefits of the vaccine programme to date.

having high cases in a partially vaxxed population IS MORE LIKELY TO LEAD TO A NEW VARIANT which is vaccine resistant.

There are pools of billions of people across the world, currently unvaxxed, who will be (hopefully) getting vaxxed, over the next 3-5 years.

Unless you expect the entire world to go into lockdown for that time, the threat of new variants will be a constant presence. You better get used.

When even the likes of the Mail and the Express are concerned, you know we're completely fucked.

We're staying at home from now on.

I think the phrase “if you’re anti-mask you’re pro-lockdown” sums it up. Lifting all mitigations at once will surely lead to enormous stress on the NHS just through sheer volume of breakthrough infection.

This theory that we can get it over now (aka herd immunity) makes no sense as this virus constantly mutates and reinfects. Even the same strain can reinfect. I read all the antibody studies and there is very little suggestion we are getting durable immunity (longer than 12 months) post-infection. There are people that were infected with Alpha and have had two vaccines who are still vulnerable when exposed to Delta.

The mask issue in the bbc article was interesting, it's more than the actual protection of masks, its the symbol they represent, flinging them off, I don't need it, you can't make me.. Freedom day..

As opposed to, freedom day comes with caveats, we are actually in a terrible position but it's best to try and carefully get this over with, we can't avoid it.

Thanks everyone.

Keep them coming.

[quote GoldenOmber]Well, a big part of the government’s logic is that their modelling suggests delaying unlocking until later in the year would be worse. You can say they’re totally wrong about that I suppose, I know we’re all experts on here, but it’s at least worth a mention.

If you are convinced the government-commissioned modellers can’t be trusted then it might be worth a look at James Ward’s Twitter thread, as a mathematician not on SPI-M who sets out why his own modelling comes down roughly in favour of July 18th (albeit with some differences to govt plans): twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1413834989209272321[/quote]
I’ve just finished reading all of his tweets. Very interesting. This is the best I’ve read so far as a case for ‘pro lifting of restrictions now’