Articles explaining how and why the U.K. govt's current covid plan is going to work?

[PrincessNutNuts]

Morning,

Please can you post any links you come across explaining how the U.K. government's current covid strategy is supposed to work, and why it's a good idea?

Cheers.

What I don't understand is how lifting restrictions now will mean we are in a better situation in autumn/winter. Surely we won't have herd immunity by autumn? Is the logic that things we will be even worse come autumn/winter but at least we have had a period of economic activity before we go into a further lockdown?

@Indigopearl is that right, that AZ offers only 10% protection against Beta variant?

[quote ARudeTerriblePerson]@Indigopearl is that right, that AZ offers only 10% protection against Beta variant?[/quote]
10% against symptomatic disease

It could possibly be higher for protection against hospitalisation/death but the study they conducted included participants with an average age of 31… who are less likely to require medical intervention anyway so they couldn’t really conclude anything concrete from the study.

Sorry @Indigopearl I answered on your behalf oops!

No more than you can actually find articles that have a realistic way of dealing with this (taking into account the Delta variant, people's behaviour, economic factors and the inability to go back in time and improve things such as test track and trace or create a better app).

It is what it is. I guess we wait to see if Scotland is repeated in the rest of the UK

The problems with the plan are political and self serving (mask mandates, wanting it to be called freedom day, not wanting to use COVID passes like a lot of Europe) and would require a fundamental shift in conservative policies and beliefs. Just aint going to happen.

I found James Ward's models pretty meaningless as he did not provide details of any of the underlying assumptions.

He says initially if we delay reopening we will have no cases through the winter but then have a larger wave in the spring. This is the premise of his arguement throughout and from what I understand that of sage.

However two charts down he goes on to say that 'I am very nervous about using the model to predict what is happens in the winter or next spring there are so many factors here that are unmodelled or uncertain'.

So basically he is willing to risk more deaths in the short term for an unknown outcome in the long term.

He the notes he is not qualified to comment on the risk of new variants which to me is one of the most fundamental reasons to keep numbers down as much as possible. There is also no consideration of the impact of the arrival of the beta variant for which AZ has only 10% immunity and is likely to increase as antibodies to delta increase and delta declines.

I have done some modelling as part of my work (in a completely different field) and you can develop a really sophicated model but its accuacy basically comes down to the underlying assumptions and data, if these are incorrect the model will be completely wrong. In relation to covid James is entirely correct in that there are way too many variables that are highly uncertain so it is impossible to know how things will turn out in the long term.

On this basis I would come to the opposite conclusion to him - that we should do what we can to reduce deaths in the short term and reduce infections to mitigate the risks of new vaccine resistant variants. We also need to reduce the spread of existing vaccine resistant variants like beta.

We have no idea what the impact of a wave now will be on cases in the winter or spring so why risk deaths now for an unknown?

We need to give people who've had Astrazeneca a Pfizer or Moderna booster. As soon as possible.

In America, where people are mostly getting mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna), the CDC data shows that fully vaccinated rarely need hospital. And 99.5% of the deaths in America are in the unvaccinated.

We need to give mRNA boosters particularly to the vulnerable who had astrazeneca.

Even more so because of the threat of the Beta strain. As pp have said, It's thought that astrazeneca is fairly ineffective against Beta.

@VanGoSunflowers

Sorry *@Indigopearl* I answered on your behalf oops!

No problem. Thanks for doing my work for me

I did find this on beta which might be of interest.
www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/covid-variant#SAoxford
There do seem to be quite a lot of unknowns but it is interesting there is a az booster being developed at the moment to specifically address this.

'A small study of 2,000 people in South Africa has shown that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine offers minimal protection against mild cases of the Beta variant, but the vaccine is still likely to reduce severe cases and deaths from the strain.

The study, which was based people of an average age of 31, shows that protection may be as low as 10%. The research wasn’t able to determine whether it protects against serious illness or hospitalisation, because this group of people were at low risk of serious illness. Other research suggests thatthe vaccine is still likely to reduce severe cases and deaths from the B.1.351 strain. More research is needed in this area.

Oxford University is working on adapting the vaccine to ensure that it protects against this variant, as well as other strains. They have said a ‘booster’ jab could be available by autumn 2021'.

Silly question but the argument for it seems to be we want to get the peak over before the winter…what are they assuming will bring the peak back down in this plan? IImmunisation programme completing? Herd immunity (which they hope to create by opening up)? Another lockdown?

Thanks for the answers, both.

It's not a silly question.

The answer is it's all based on the toddler approach to life. Thinking of the here and now, rather than longer term - and if you wish hard enough, it will all go away. Toddlers have an excuse of being toddlers.

It is a great question. I think it must be herd immunity. Waves do eventually come down on their own e.g the indian wave did drop. They do seem to have shifted from saying it would peak in august to september. I think they are getting worried that this wave could be very drawn out and spread into autumn which kind of defeats the reasoning for getting all the cases over in the summer.

I do wish there was more information about the plans for autumn boosters. I guess it's encouraging that the flu vaccine program for schools is going to be broader this year, implying someone has given it some thought, but it would be encouraging to hear about whether the AZ vaccinated population will be getting Pfizer boosters this autumn (yes there's the AZ trial but I haven't heard that manufacture has proactively moved to this version in advance of the trail reading out, and I'm assuming that scale up takes longer than for mRNA vaccine).

@Indigopearl

It is a great question. I think it must be herd immunity. Waves do eventually come down on their own e.g the indian wave did drop. They do seem to have shifted from saying it would peak in august to september. I think they are getting worried that this wave could be very drawn out and spread into autumn which kind of defeats the reasoning for getting all the cases over in the summer.

I was looking at India’s chart and was surprised by the drop.

Did they ever impose a lockdown or any restrictions in India?

Do we know when the UK is getting the extra 60m doses of pfizer ordered for the booster programme? We only had 40m doses originally which must be running low given there are 20 million 18 to 40s plus some older people recieved it.

I assume we can't start on the booster programme until these extra stocks arrive.

I wonder to what extent the UKs strategy of opening up now/natural immunity is becuase vaccine stocks are low. Yes we have a lot of AZ but it isn't much use for young people.

@SpringRainbow The honest answer is that we don't really know.
www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/01/962821038/the-mystery-of-indias-plummeting-covid-19-cases?t=1626756391202

Just realised that article is actually talking about the first wave in India.

@HotPenguin

What I don't understand is how lifting restrictions now will mean we are in a better situation in autumn/winter. Surely we won't have herd immunity by autumn? Is the logic that things we will be even worse come autumn/winter but at least we have had a period of economic activity before we go into a further lockdown?

I read that the modelling done is only allowed to be based on parameters set by government - so the modelling didn't include lots of options that would have kept cases lower.

In answer the the op's question, there is nothing anywhere to suggest what the UK government is doing is anything but a massive gamble.

@Indigopearl

The chance of developing a vaccine resistant variant is the highest when 50% of the population is vaccinated which is where we are at the moment. This is exactly the time when you want case numbers to be low.

This is why the government is also so worried about beta and put France on the amber plus list. Beta has not spread much yet however it will soon have an advantage over delta in the UK as more people gain antibodies against delta. If this happens we are straight back into a harsh lockdown as AZ only provides 10% immunity to it.

You ask about my strategy. I wouldn't be in this position in the first place becuase I would have imposed restrictions on Indian travel earlier allowing more vaccination to take place first. Plus I prefer the strategy of introducing restrictions earlier when cases are low to present exponential growth rather than the endless cycle of lockdowns approach we currently use.

However lets say I was in this position I would
A) Be getting pfizer boosters into people asap
B) Wait until everyone 2 weeks post 2nd dose before even thinking about opening up further
C) Not be allowing any large events and restricting indoor socialising and if necessary reintroducibg tougher restrictions (and this is probably necessary as we have let things go too far).
D) Keeping masks and social distancing rules
E) offering voluntary vaccines to over 12s

And yes there would be an economic impact from stricter restrictions but it will be far far less than the impact from dealing with a vaccine resistant variant or having to shut down again because hospitals are overwhelmed.

This

Ok let's explain again for the hard of understanding anything.

Viruses mutate, always have always will. Virus gonna virus. We have been giving flu vaccines every winter for decades to vulnerable people if they want it. The recipe for the vaccine has to be changed as the mutation evades the previous years effort. Despite this tens of thousands in the uk alone die from flu yearly (nobody bats an eyelid or wears masks then), so with that knowledge about viruses why are you now expecting any country in the world to come up with a 100% waterproof plan to evade the virus and achieve something nobody else has ever done before?

I read that the modelling done is only allowed to be based on parameters set by government - so the modelling didn't include lots of options that would have kept cases lower

Ah now this makes sense! When I was attempting to decipher the modelling done by Imperial College London, I was reading the summary and trying to understand why the modelling had only been carried out for a limited number of scenarios…

So basically (in my simple mind) the government say to the scientists “these are the ONLY two options we will consider, please do your science stuff based only on one of these scenarios”
So that they can keep telling people “we are following the science” ??

That’d be like me trying to predict the two different outcomes of my house being on fire based only on either ignoring it or pouring a cup of water on it

@chocolateorangeinhaler

Ok let's explain again for the hard of understanding anything.

Viruses mutate, always have always will. Virus gonna virus. We have been giving flu vaccines every winter for decades to vulnerable people if they want it. The recipe for the vaccine has to be changed as the mutation evades the previous years effort. Despite this tens of thousands in the uk alone die from flu yearly (nobody bats an eyelid or wears masks then), so with that knowledge about viruses why are you now expecting any country in the world to come up with a 100% waterproof plan to evade the virus and achieve something nobody else has ever done before?

Very condescending

"Virus gonna virus"

I understand perfectly now!

@Winwins

Silly question but the argument for it seems to be we want to get the peak over before the winter…what are they assuming will bring the peak back down in this plan? IImmunisation programme completing? Herd immunity (which they hope to create by opening up)? Another lockdown?

I’m no expert but pandemics left unchecked do come in waves and have peaks and troughs.

My understanding is that the only thing we can affect is the shape of the curve - leave unchecked and it climbs high and fast with a steep trajectory, put NPIs/vaccine programs in place and it ‘flattens’ it somewhat.

Actually what brings the curve back down again I have no idea. Natural short term immunity+People who will die have died??

Honestly, witnessing me trying to explain science is like watching Bambi learn how to walk

@PrincessNutNuts

Morning,

Please can you post any links you come across explaining how the U.K. government's current covid strategy is supposed to work, and why it's a good idea?

Cheers.

Because vaccines work.