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Original poster

Surely opening up now is the least worst option?

184 replies

Warhertisuff · 16/07/2021 13:52

What's the point of continuing to suppress Covid at the moment. All it does it kick the can on the road..

Either we never, ever open up, or we have to accept that, when we do, cases will rise until we've acquired enough immunity through a combination of infection and vaccination.

At the moment, vaccines work pretty well against the current variants.... The more we suppress Covid now, the less immune as a society we'll be when a vaccine evasive variant (and it probably will whatever we do here), and if we can't relax restrictions now, we surely won't be able to over the autumn and winter.

Where we are is admittedly pretty shit, but continuing to suppress Covid now would just be counterproductive. "Letting it rip" sounds callous, but the alternatives seem worse or unworkable.

Yet many people seem determined to persist with the reflex to suppress Covid and continue with restrictions and measures to curtail spread. What's the point?

OP posts:
Sunshinegirl82 · 16/07/2021 21:59

@MrsRLynde

That "modelling" (and I use the term loosely) just seems to anticipate that cases will just keep on doubling at the current rate indefinitely which seems spectacularly unlikely.

Biscuit

The Worldometer predictions are nonsense. Biscuit away, doesn't stop it being true!
MarshaBradyo · 16/07/2021 22:05

@lljkk

This is my counter-factual...

18 June : all adults can get jab
18 July: all adults who want 1st jab have got it
18 September: all adults who want 2nd jab have got it
2 weeks into schools back in England: usual spike in respiratory viruses already underway
2 October: 2 weeks after 2nd jab, maximum immunity in population

2 October 2021: booster programme starts, and that is done... say mid January.

mid January = peak respiratory virus season. Lasts until end March.

"let's wait until Easter 2022 before opening up" -- if we want to think when is finally "safe"

-- fine, but...

who pays to keep millions of people on furlough that long? Can govt keep borrowing £50 mln/day until then & simply never worry again about national debt?

Yes it would be Easter

So another half a year with slowed economic growth and furlough on top

Plus still keeping isolation for schools..

Againstmachine · 16/07/2021 22:23

Dr Chris Witty and other supporters of this should be ashamed of themselves for backing a decision that supports the mass infection of the people of the UK

It's amazing how the worm turns against the people who were weeks ago god's to them.

puppeteer · 16/07/2021 23:10

@Againstmachine

Dr Chris Witty and other supporters of this should be ashamed of themselves for backing a decision that supports the mass infection of the people of the UK

It's amazing how the worm turns against the people who were weeks ago god's to them.

But “the science” says what?!…
MercyBooth · 16/07/2021 23:30

@Againstmachine Is it possible that the lockdowns caused mutations. After all we are all being told its the fault of the unvaccinated because the virus will mutate to get into the few that are around. And there were fewer people around during the lockdowns.
In the November lockdown they didnt close the schools and there were loads of threads on here saying that was a mistake as the virus would mutate to get into the small amount of people that were around.

Hardbackwriter · 16/07/2021 23:48

I understand the argument for having strict restrictions to keep case numbers really low until all over 12s have been offered two vaccines.

I understand the argument for releasing all restrictions now.

I don't know which of these I think is right, but the one argument I don't understand - but which seems to be the most popular - is for leaving things as they stand, seemingly indefinitely. The current level of restriction very demonstrably isn't controlling case numbers but it is causing economic damage. It seems fairly clearly to be the worst of both worlds and I can't see any argument for leaving it standing and just waiting, presumably for cases to burn themselves out.

Sunshinegirl82 · 17/07/2021 00:10

@Hardbackwriter

I understand the argument for having strict restrictions to keep case numbers really low until all over 12s have been offered two vaccines.

I understand the argument for releasing all restrictions now.

I don't know which of these I think is right, but the one argument I don't understand - but which seems to be the most popular - is for leaving things as they stand, seemingly indefinitely. The current level of restriction very demonstrably isn't controlling case numbers but it is causing economic damage. It seems fairly clearly to be the worst of both worlds and I can't see any argument for leaving it standing and just waiting, presumably for cases to burn themselves out.

I completely agree. Faffing about in the middle ground is the worst of all worlds.
PickAChew · 17/07/2021 00:22

I'm in the northeast. I'm pissed off with the whole situation but the plan for Monday seems nuts, right now.

PickAChew · 17/07/2021 00:24

To illustrate, I went for an optician's appointment in Durham City centre 2 weeks ago and it was hopping in a way it hadn't since early 2020. Picked up my glasses on Thursday and it was dead.

Namenic · 17/07/2021 00:45

Economically and health wise I think the least worst would be to have a steady rate of cases so that the nhs can cope. This is not happening currently and the govt want to open up more while cases are going up.

If we were more measured - releasing or adding back restrictions to keep the case rate steady, there would be less disruption to nhs (catching up with backlog) and industry (currently lots of people isolating which is affecting companies; also higher spike may lead to longer, harsher lockdown like 2nd wave).

High case numbers, especially with partially vaccinated population might be a breeding ground for the variants we so fear?

Ickle37 · 17/07/2021 01:00

I think everyone needs to accept they are going to get it, and it will either be easy or a bit crappy, hopefully only the 0.001 of death- if you are not vulnerable ( clinically vulnerable were clinically vulnerable before this) . Harsh but true.
I think we have years of this and some one who isn't genetically greedy needs to run our country. Sacrificing childrens education so the FA/ night club owners/ big event organisers AND massive property owners can still make a buck is down right criminal.
We need to shape society now- or just be ill every year and hope we wont die. Frankly the third world live this life , terminally. Maybe its our turn?

NotMyCat · 17/07/2021 01:03

It's going to be hard for businesses despite the vaccine I think if staff are off sick, I mean one gets it then another.. I've seen a few pubs etc having to close already as they just don't have the staff to open

maggiemuff · 17/07/2021 01:07

Just get on with your life's just like everyone does In flu season. People are just playing up to this now as they don't want to go back to work in an office or whatever. We have had 1.5 years took away already

Ickle37 · 17/07/2021 01:07

There will be some rich person getting 1000's of out of work people on zero hr contracts to " fill in" these positions... probably along the lines of the millionaires who run agencies that fill nhs absences. Probably getting a grant to set them up!

ZoinksRun · 17/07/2021 01:34

I think what we have now is the worst situation. The government is encouraging people to go out, from Monday you will be encouraged to go into an office, to eat out in large numbers, socialise in houses with however many other households. And yet there are so many cases of people isolating. My DP has to open his shop on his own tomorrow as both colleagues are isolating, it's going to be the busiest Saturday in a while because of the weather and he won't be able to keep up with the orders which will mean loss of earnings. My friends hospital is so short staffed they've had to cancel patients appointments as they can't even get any agency staff. 2/3's of my office have been isolating this week. We cannot carry on isolating whilst promoting socialising.
I suggest we scrap isolating in some instances, class bubbles, sitting ten tables away from others in a restaurant, popping in to get a Costa etc.

Sunshinegirl82 · 17/07/2021 01:37

I agree some of the isolating is getting a bit ridiculous. Hopefully this will improve come 16th August when those who are double vaxxed don't have to isolate as a close contact.

Jenasaurus · 17/07/2021 07:01

[quote SonnetForSpring]What international scientists think of freedom day

www.pscp.tv/w/c8Ay6DF4ZUVXWXJ5ek9OS1B8MXJteFB6Z3FlcHlHTuUhKTBsssfl8bRVzCfMboAOdzvi0I1IokhaKsR8hYQV?s=08[/quote]
Thank you for sharing this link, I have just watched it all. It was very interesting and very concerning that all those scientists from around the world are basicaly aghast at the "UK Experment" The bit that stood out to me was the Israel speaker, saying about there being 37 hospitilisations of children every day, our children are not vaccinated and this puts them at risk. The other concerning thing that was mentioned was the effect COVID has on the brain and how they dont know whether it fully recovers. Again a concern for our children. Thank you so much for the link.

ButteringMyArse · 17/07/2021 08:20

@Hardbackwriter

I understand the argument for having strict restrictions to keep case numbers really low until all over 12s have been offered two vaccines.

I understand the argument for releasing all restrictions now.

I don't know which of these I think is right, but the one argument I don't understand - but which seems to be the most popular - is for leaving things as they stand, seemingly indefinitely. The current level of restriction very demonstrably isn't controlling case numbers but it is causing economic damage. It seems fairly clearly to be the worst of both worlds and I can't see any argument for leaving it standing and just waiting, presumably for cases to burn themselves out.

That's a very interesting point.
Indigopearl · 17/07/2021 08:41

Thanks for sharing the video. It was very interesting. I think it comes down to who you trust more, a group of international experts or Boris and the tory party.

I wonder how long it will take the people in the UK to realise that experts are worth listening to and popularist governments don't tend to achieve the best economic, social or health outcomes for the vast majority of the population.

Indigopearl · 17/07/2021 08:42

*Sorry I should have said England not the UK

Madhairday · 17/07/2021 09:23

@Indigopearl

Thanks for sharing the video. It was very interesting. I think it comes down to who you trust more, a group of international experts or Boris and the tory party.

I wonder how long it will take the people in the UK to realise that experts are worth listening to and popularist governments don't tend to achieve the best economic, social or health outcomes for the vast majority of the population.

This. I think the video is very much worth watching. It's not full of hysterical catastrophising, contrary to what many here would have you believe. Just a group of worldwide experts who are very concerned about this strategy, with some robust and credible reasoning.
VanGoSunflowers · 17/07/2021 09:38

The video is worth watching, however…

  1. The questions were largely biased
  2. Many of the answers given were essentially go back in time and go for full elimination so we wouldn’t have had to have so many lockdowns in the first place (fair point but it’s not exactly possible now, is it?)
  3. The world’s scientific community can disagree wildly with one another. It’s one of the reasons we have scientific advancements. So I would like to watch a similar video (or read some articles etc) also delivered by the scientific community but arguing FOR lifting restrictions now before I am completely convinced either way.
VanGoSunflowers · 17/07/2021 09:40

Also, pay attention to their titles when they speak. Some seem credible in that they work in the field of epidemiology or similar. Some not so much. One guy whom they introduced as a professor actually corrected them and said he was a lawyer.

AlecTrevelyan006 · 17/07/2021 10:11

I think a few things are becoming obvious in the data:

  1. Delta is more transmissible and it can spread even amongst the vaccinated
  2. Vaccines are clearly highly effective in reducing severe illness
  3. They cant work miracles and many vulnerable people remain at risk with or without vaccination

The returns from vaccine coercion are now very low. So the argument for vaccine passports seems wholly political. Ideological in fact.

Slowing transmission down or trying to reverse it with more lockdown just moves the current problematic exit wave to the winter.

We cant go back and we cant stand still. We can only go forward.

MrsRLynde · 17/07/2021 10:32

Jeremy Hunt this morning:

The warning light on the NHS dashboard is not flashing amber, it is flashing red. Covid hospital patients are doubling every two weeks. That means we are heading for 10,000 Covid hospital patients by the end of August, which is about 20 times higher than this time last year. It is a very serious situation. I think coming into September we are almost certainly going to see infections reach a new daily peak going above the 68,000 daily level, which was the previous daily record in January. If they are still going up as the schools are coming back I think we are going to have to reconsider some very difficult decisions. How we behave over the next few weeks will have a material difference