Surely opening up now is the least worst option?

[Warhertisuff]

What's the point of continuing to suppress Covid at the moment. All it does it kick the can on the road..

Either we never, ever open up, or we have to accept that, when we do, cases will rise until we've acquired enough immunity through a combination of infection and vaccination.

At the moment, vaccines work pretty well against the current variants.... The more we suppress Covid now, the less immune as a society we'll be when a vaccine evasive variant (and it probably will whatever we do here), and if we can't relax restrictions now, we surely won't be able to over the autumn and winter.

Where we are is admittedly pretty shit, but continuing to suppress Covid now would just be counterproductive. "Letting it rip" sounds callous, but the alternatives seem worse or unworkable.

Yet many people seem determined to persist with the reflex to suppress Covid and continue with restrictions and measures to curtail spread. What's the point?

The impression I got from Chris Whitty at the briefing on 12 July that this was indeed the least worst option. If we delay opening, we are pushing closer to autumn and winter and the usual winter bugs. I cannot see how delaying is going to help. We need to accept the bumps in the road.

Cases will rise when we start mixing more. Seems best to do this is summer and the weather is better and children are of school.

I think keeping masks would have been useful but anecdotally, most people I know said they will continue wearing them to protect themselves and others, especially in very crowded places. Otherwise, I think we have to ease the final restrictions for the sake of the economy. There are some industries who cannot function if we keep saying we’ll delay by a few more weeks then a few more weeks and then a few more weeks and so on.

They wont be able to function anyway because:
Much of their workforce will have caught it.
Noone will be going anywhere because they are scared of catching it.
Many will remain to unwell to come back to work.

It’s interesting how many have hung on Whitty’s every word, but now he’s saying we need to do this now and try to ride the exit wave, they don’t want to know.

The virus is also not being controlled. Its being let loose so..
A new variant will arise. This means we will have a new variant to contend with just as the Autumn and winter bugs are kicking in.

They have absolutely no control over a virus!

@neveradullmoment99

The virus is also not being controlled. Its being let loose so.. A new variant will arise. This means we will have a new variant to contend with just as the Autumn and winter bugs are kicking in.

When will this not be a risk though? More than 90% of the adult population have antibodies, if not now, when?

Vaccines for children are some way off, all the modelling suggests there will be an exit wave whatever we do. CW has been cautious (and in my view) honest and consistent throughout. If he thinks lifting restrictions now is the least worst time to do so then that seems reasonable to me.

Making it happen now does not mean that it wont happen again fgs!

Sage have modelling data showing opening up now will ensure the surge of Covid cases happens over the holiday & is over by the start of school.

However we all know how accurate modelling is !?!

It's a fair bet that cases overheat just enough to stop normal school in the autumn term.
When we could have avoided it by keeping cases controlled over the summer. Restrictions in summer are not too bad. In winter they're diabolical . Especially with 4 kids, all doing online schooling /uni. Two with depression and Sad ( due to every daylight hour doing online school with no sun or fresh air).

When the virus cases are low and we have max vaccination possible. That is when.

Most of the worlds scientists are saying this is absolutely not the way to go about it.

@neveradullmoment99

The virus is also not being controlled. Its being let loose so.. A new variant will arise. This means we will have a new variant to contend with just as the Autumn and winter bugs are kicking in.

Have you a crystal ball??

International expert opinion describes this an unethical experiment

No, have you?

@MrsRLynde

International expert opinion describes this an unethical experiment

Absolutely!

@neveradullmoment99

When the virus cases are low and we have max vaccination possible. That is when.

Ok, but if 90% of the adult population already have antibodies we are at or close to maximum achievable levels as things stand.

Cases are rising now with the current restrictions so in order to drive cases down we would need to increase restrictions. Staying as we are wouldn't be sufficient. I think it's hard to justify increasing restrictions (especially when it's accepted that restrictions cause harm themselves) with vaccination/antibody levels where they are.

None of the outcomes are perfect but I can see the logic behind the decision to open up now.

@neveradullmoment99 you said a new variant “will” arise. I’m wondering how you know this for certain? Incredible talent!!

@neveradullmoment99

Most of the worlds scientists are saying this is absolutely not the way to go about it.

Lots of people said that about delaying the second dose of the vaccine but it proved to be a good decision.

Very interesting paper on vaccine escape showing that the the highest risk for vaccine escape can occur at intermediate levels of vaccination and by vaccinating the vulnerable first. So pretty much the UK's strategy.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.14.21253544v1.full

It's a fair bet that cases overheat just enough to stop normal school in the autumn term.
When we could have avoided it by keeping cases controlled over the summer. Restrictions in summer are not too bad. In winter they're diabolical

Better the disruption is September/October then, rather than January/February.

Yanbu we have to get on with things at some point!

[quote TerritorialPissings]@neveradullmoment99 you said a new variant “will” arise. I’m wondering how you know this for certain? Incredible talent!![/quote]
You don’t need ‘incredible talent’, just an understanding of how viruses mutate…

Actually a lot of the scientists agreed with the delay of the second dose. It was the vaccine manufactuers who didn't becuase it had not been trialled in this way. There was plenty of evidence from other vaccines that they delay was sensible.

Opening up on the other hand when cases are growing exponentially

I'm okay with opening up, but would bet my house on us being in lockdown by some other name by October

@Indigopearl

Actually a lot of the scientists agreed with the delay of the second dose. It was the vaccine manufactuers who didn't becuase it had not been trialled in this way. There was plenty of evidence from other vaccines that they delay was sensible.

Opening up on the other hand when cases are growing exponentially

I just think it's not black and white, I can see why it looks as though opening up whilst cases are rising = obviously a completely terrible idea but when you take into account that there will be an exit wave regardless of when we do this, that restrictions cause harm, that damaging the economy reduces life expectancy, the school holiday, winter viruses, very high levels of antibodies in the adult population, the difficulty with balancing risk/benefit of vaccinating children etc etc etc it isn't so clear cut.

There is logic behind the decision to open up now, that isn't the same as saying it's definitely a brilliant idea, just an appreciation of the fact that there are no good options available. We are where we are.

The economy will suffer just as much damage if not more from looser restrictions. Just look at the data on the economic damage to Sweden compared to Norway.
We are already seeing the impact of high cases leading to more people in quarantine and supply-side disruptions. NHS Waiting lists are continuing to grow and we don't even know when this wave will peak. Some models suggest it could be October so that is another terms education messed up.