Surely opening up now is the least worst option?

[Warhertisuff]

What's the point of continuing to suppress Covid at the moment. All it does it kick the can on the road..

Either we never, ever open up, or we have to accept that, when we do, cases will rise until we've acquired enough immunity through a combination of infection and vaccination.

At the moment, vaccines work pretty well against the current variants.... The more we suppress Covid now, the less immune as a society we'll be when a vaccine evasive variant (and it probably will whatever we do here), and if we can't relax restrictions now, we surely won't be able to over the autumn and winter.

Where we are is admittedly pretty shit, but continuing to suppress Covid now would just be counterproductive. "Letting it rip" sounds callous, but the alternatives seem worse or unworkable.

Yet many people seem determined to persist with the reflex to suppress Covid and continue with restrictions and measures to curtail spread. What's the point?

So the only answer for me is to go into virtual lockdown again.

I'm lucky I don't have young kids and am retired. Food shopping on line (as I have been since March 2020).

I'm mainly scared of getting long covid.

@Indigopearl

The economy will suffer just as much damage if not more from looser restrictions. Just look at the data on the economic damage to Sweden compared to Norway. We are already seeing the impact of high cases leading to more people in quarantine and supply-side disruptions. NHS Waiting lists are continuing to grow and we don't even know when this wave will peak. Some models suggest it could be October so that is another terms education messed up.

Case numbers see rising with the current restrictions in place. If we want to reduce cases we will have to increase restrictions and I don't think that is a realistic option now.

Keeping the current level of restrictions will just extend the peak even further towards Winter. Again, no good options.

I think we just have to get on with things eventually? If most adults have been vaccinated now... then when exactly would things be any better to open up? The virus isn't going anywhere, people will always run the risk of catching it, and sadly some people will die from it (as with many other illnesses).

I don't quite understand what those who think we should wait are waiting for exactly??

My children's lives and education have already been affected for nearly 18 months. If I was confident the virus would be "beaten" if we kept restrictions for another year then maybe I'd be in favour, but as things stand there will always be claims it's too soon, so maybe now is as good a time as any?

I don't know what the future holds, but I do know that there eventually has to be a limit to how much of a negative affect is imposed on those for whom the virus is not a significant threat. I don't know when that time is, but as a family we've definitely reached that stage.

if the vaccines are working then we should open up now

If the vaccines are not working then I don't see the point is dragging it out any longer so we may we well open up now

there is no perfect time to open - so now seems as good as any

It's not all nothing. We can open up and be careful, which is what we need to do.

Agree here comes the sun.

It’s interesting how many have hung on Whitty’s every word, but now he’s saying we need to do this now and try to ride the exit wave, they don’t want to know

Isnt it just!! Very telling.

@MercyBooth

It’s interesting how many have hung on Whitty’s every word, but now he’s saying we need to do this now and try to ride the exit wave, they don’t want to know

Isnt it just!! Very telling.

Yes and he is also saying we may need restrictions again in 5 weeks. Some exit.... www.google.com/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chris-whitty-warns-england-could-24546061.amp

Sage and the government also proposed herd immunity in early March 2020. But had swiftly changed their mind by the 21st. Remember?

This to me looks very much like a rerun of March. It's an experiment ... which may or may not work out.

However I do have a feeling of impending doom .
I get that there's no right or wrong answer and all approaches are wrong to a certain extent. But a moderately cautious approach seems to me to be the best one. Not the all guns blaring approach of Boris, only to come to. Sudden halt when the shit hits the fan.

Oh dear.

twitter.com/bsmithgreens/status/1415791564899635202?s=20

Benjamin Smith !SAVE THE ARTS!
@bsmithgreens
At no point in this article does Whitty reference the UK returning to lockdown. Considering the man has been accosted multiple times by members of the public, I'd say it's more than irresponsible to post a sensationalist, clickbait headline at this time. twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1415780455111172096
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Pleased to see that
@MirrorPolitics
have taken this down.

I much prefer whitty over valance but when I listen to whitty I hear repressed rage, phrases like " hard winter" etc and fear.
He said he doesn't think covid has done with us yet.
These things and others tell me... He's absolutely shit scared for winter.
And he's doing everything to lesson that impact now but.. He has also stressed that we should go carefully.. And that Boris as pm has "other" considerations.
I imagine were whitty in total control he would be doing things very differently.

@neveradullmoment99

Most of the worlds scientists are saying this is absolutely not the way to go about it.

Have you done a survery of 'the worlds scientists'?

We're are a huge experiment and I don't blame anyone for for that, it's what it is no one has the right answer

What I do feel confident about is that by next spring, once winter has done its worse, we absolutely will be in a stronger position scientifically to fight this.
The comms we have been all the world's scientists, the data we get from Israel etc, the best minds on the planet will be endlessly thinking how to crack covid... And we will crack it but its buying that time.

Wouldn't Whitty resign if he thought he could no longer support a certain shitshow? He's plenty talented enough to do many other things to earn his crust. Just because he has reservations does not mean he's sitting there with repressed rage.

These threads on MN are quite heaving with impending doomsters.

@Lemonmelonsun

I much prefer whitty over valance but when I listen to whitty I hear repressed rage, phrases like " hard winter" etc and fear. He said he doesn't think covid has done with us yet. These things and others tell me... He's absolutely shit scared for winter. And he's doing everything to lesson that impact now but.. He has also stressed that we should go carefully.. And that Boris as pm has "other" considerations. I imagine were whitty in total control he would be doing things very differently.

I'm sure he would. Just as if Sunak were in total control he'd be doing things very differently too.

But the government as a whole has to think of a number of competing interests and priorities. Not saying that they have come to the right balance, but a country of nearly 70 million people can't be run on the basis of 'science' alone.

And I didn't get the impression that Whitty is terrified. I think he's being realistic. There's no 'right' time to open, but this is the least worst time and we aren't out of the woods yet. He pretty much said that. I think if he were as full of 'rage' as you suggest, he'd have resigned or otherwise refused to publicly endorse the plan. But he didn't.

@IcedPurple I think the poster was referring to the 1200 scientists referenced here
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-covid-scientists-warning-b1885305.html

I admit to feeling frustration with people who just criticise the decisions made but with no real credible alternative solution.

It's the same frustration I feel with posters who feel we should have attempted zero covid "like NZ" but without any reasoned argument as to how we deal with the thousands of lorries that enter the country everyday or replace the food they bring.

I know this government have made mistakes and I'm no fan of BJ or the current crop of tories but I'm pretty sure if there was some stand out perfect solution to the situation even our government would have managed to spot it.

[quote Indigopearl]@IcedPurple I think the poster was referring to the 1200 scientists referenced here
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-covid-scientists-warning-b1885305.html[/quote]
That's 'most of the worlds scientists' is it?

@Sunshinegirl82

I admit to feeling frustration with people who just criticise the decisions made but with no real credible alternative solution.

It's the same frustration I feel with posters who feel we should have attempted zero covid "like NZ" but without any reasoned argument as to how we deal with the thousands of lorries that enter the country everyday or replace the food they bring.

I know this government have made mistakes and I'm no fan of BJ or the current crop of tories but I'm pretty sure if there was some stand out perfect solution to the situation even our government would have managed to spot it.

I agree with this.

It all seems to be about waiting for another 'couple of months' but I can say with near certainly that in a 'couple of months' they'll be once again posting about the 'madness' of opening up when schools are going back, and a 'couple of months' later the 'world's scientists' will be talking about the how Britain is 'the laughing stock of the world' for opening up in the middle of flu season. And so on.

@nocoolnamesleft

It would make sense to open up now, if levels were low. They aren't. They're already going up exponentially. Hospital numbers are already increasing. Open up all the way, and the likelihood is we'll have to have a proper lockdown again. Keep what restrictions there are, and we might just scrape through without.

But the reality is levels have gone up because we started relaxing things. So if we wait 3 months, they will still grow exponentially when we finally do open up. We can just hope the vaccines stop people from being hospitalised!

This is my counter-factual...

18 June : all adults can get jab
18 July: all adults who want 1st jab have got it
18 September: all adults who want 2nd jab have got it
2 weeks into schools back in England: usual spike in respiratory viruses already underway
2 October: 2 weeks after 2nd jab, maximum immunity in population

2 October 2021: booster programme starts, and that is done... say mid January.

mid January = peak respiratory virus season. Lasts until end March.

"let's wait until Easter 2022 before opening up" -- if we want to think when is finally "safe"

-- fine, but...

who pays to keep millions of people on furlough that long? Can govt keep borrowing £50 mln/day until then & simply never worry again about national debt?

If you don’t think we should open now you need to state when a good time would be otherwise your argument is pointless.

Saying we should open when cases are low? But cases will ALWAYS rise the minute we open up. We have to go through this. When is a good time? I would argue autumn, as per last year is not a good time. Cases can’t keep going up for months and months, that is not the pattern of a virus a wave peaks and falls.

You don’t stop this through lockdown you just change the timings of this and drag the whole process out (whilst ruining people’s lives and the economy in the process. People who have nothing to fear from this virus).

I understand there are no easy options and there may be some logic in easing restrictions when the weather is good and the schools are closing.

However, I really can't see a justification for removing the obligation to wear masks indoors. That is just madness.

@ScrollingLeaves

“Warhertisuff

What's the point of continuing to suppress Covid at the moment. All it does it kick the can on the road..”

Further. On up the road more people will have been vaccinated.

A lot is being cancellled now because so many people are getting it, or isolating due to someone in their bubble getting it, that there are staff shortages. So there might be a lock-down by default anyway.

I'd agree with you had done this earlier, but we're pretty close to the ceiling for 1st jabs, and the most over 40s (who want to be) have been double-jabbed.

@GlassOfPort

I understand there are no easy options and there may be some logic in easing restrictions when the weather is good and the schools are closing.

However, I really can't see a justification for removing the obligation to wear masks indoors. That is just madness.

A lot is being said about masks, but I don't imagine they make more than a marginal difference... You're highly unlikely to catch it brushing past someone in Sainsbury's...