The Johnson variant - England's gift to the world

[Indigopearl]

Is anyone else worried about the degree of circulation of covid amongst the fully and partially vaccinated?

According to the zoe app cases in the unvaccinated have peaked.
covid.joinzoe.com/post/new-cases-plateau-aead-of-freedom-day
Although that sounds like a good thing it means that growth is now concentrated in the vaccinated population increasing the chance of producing a vaccine resistant variant.

The combination of high cases and spread in a partially vaccinated population is the perfect scenario for breeding vaccine resistance.
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01938-4

Will this be the ultimate legacy of the Johnson government?

More likely to be the football variant

The Modi variant if anything, surely?

oh wait, you’re talking about a yet-to-be-evolved variant? In which case, seems unlikely that we’ll have a fully vaccine-resistant one or that it’ll be anyone’s ‘fault’ if one does manage to appear.

Many scientists disagree with you
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/nz-lockdown-easing-uk-covid-b1883324.html?amp

Jemma Geoghegan, an evolutionary virologist at the University of Otago, expressed concern that just over half of the UK adult population has been vaccinated and that this could encourage new vaccine resistant variants to be produced.

She toldNewsroom: “If you are going to train a virus to escape vaccine-induced immunity, you would do exactly what they’re doing.

You’re basically providing a training ground for the virus to overcome those selection pressures. You’re allowing the virus to continue to spread.

“With this moderately immune population and with the Delta variant that has an R0 that’s estimated to be probably five or six, you need a threshold to be much, much, much higher than they currently have.”

This has been obvious from the start. I have no idea why the government are risking our global vaccine strategy.

Hardly Johnson's fault if the vaccines have proved a bit shit at stopping infection. And I'm no fan of the man.

Is there another by-election coming up?

Lockdown forever is not an option. I think it is the best time to do it.

Have a vaccine - it improves your chances of catching it, not being ill and if you're under 70 practically eliminates your chance of dying.

If you're not vaccinated, or vulnerable, yes, you probably do need to not do risky things, but you cannot expect the entire population to risk their own health for yours, which is what has been happening at the moment. There has to be a balance and that has been reached.

I'm an optometrist and several of my patients who have AMD have been unable to have their regular injections and are now functionally blind. I don't want anyone else to needlessly suffer.

@MaxNormal

Hardly Johnson's fault if the vaccines have proved a bit shit at stopping infection. And I'm no fan of the man.

Of course it is becuase he is opening up too soon when conditions are optimal for breeding vaccine resistance. Waiting until vaccine coverage is higher will reduce the chance of breeding vaccine resistance. He has been warned of the risks by sage but has ignored them.

If this happens it will be all on him.

Remind me what the point is of waiting if the vaccines don't stop you catching it?

Plus do we really want the exit wave to dovetail with flu season?

"Of course it is becuase he is opening up too soon when conditions are optimal for breeding vaccine resistance. Waiting until vaccine coverage is higher will reduce the chance of breeding vaccine resistance. He has been warned of the risks by sage but has ignored them.

If this happens it will be all on him."

Of course it won't be on him. It's the fault of the anti-vaxers, the denyers and the "wait & see brigade. We cannot lock the country down forever until the last of the last finally drag their arses into the vaccination centres. Look at France - vaccinate or stay home and all of a sudden a million people jam the booking line when threatened with not being able to go out to eat or visit the cinemas. But yeah, we will all wait until the idiots have finished their 'research' on Facebook.

@underneaththeash

Is there another by-election coming up?

Lockdown forever is not an option. I think it is the best time to do it.

Have a vaccine - it improves your chances of catching it, not being ill and if you're under 70 practically eliminates your chance of dying.

If you're not vaccinated, or vulnerable, yes, you probably do need to not do risky things, but you cannot expect the entire population to risk their own health for yours, which is what has been happening at the moment. There has to be a balance and that has been reached.

I'm an optometrist and several of my patients who have AMD have been unable to have their regular injections and are now functionally blind. I don't want anyone else to needlessly suffer.

Your last two sentences makes me shudder.

So how did this work when people started being vaccinated against measles and smallpox (for example)? Did vaccinating against them cause the virus to mutate and change?

I look at what the scientists are saying and it is pretty unanimous that it is totally reckless. For the sake of a couple of months of caution this strategy risks throwing the UK and the rest of the world into more lockdowns.

If vaccination doesn't stop transmission (which it doesn't, I know lot's of people with covid now, including me, all vaccinated) then how does more vaccinated people help matters? Genuine question.

@Bitofachinwag

So how did this work when people started being vaccinated against measles and smallpox (for example)? Did vaccinating against them cause the virus to mutate and change?

Measles is very stable compared to covid which is why we only need to vaccinate for it twice during childhood.

Pox viruses also have very low mutation rates.

I am assuming this is the alleged “I rather see bodies piled high” Alexander Johnson school of popularity politics and follow the date not data nor science gross negligent manslaughter pandemic mismanagement.

@BoomChicka

If vaccination doesn't stop transmission (which it doesn't, I know lot's of people with covid now, including me, all vaccinated) then how does more vaccinated people help matters? Genuine question.

Vaccination does help slow transmission it is just not perfect. The attached is data from sage which shows the impact of vaccination on transmission, symptomatic disease, hospitalisation and death from both vaccines. According to current information vaccination will cut transmission by 35% to 50%.

This means that the delta variant's reproduction rate of 6 (with no restrictions) will be reduced to 3 (with no restrictions).

Interestingly 3 was the r rate of the alpha variant so with vaccination we are pretty much back to the same level of spread that we had with no vaccines in January. This highlights the great importance of ensuring we do not get any worse mutations.

Of course vaccination does a lot more than just reduce spread and protection against hospitalisation and mortality is much higher so it is well worth having the vaccine.

Data attached

It is a concern but the flip side is that delaying opening pushes the inevitable surge that will bring from the summer when people are outdoors more into the autumn/winter when people are indoors and flu, RSV and other viruses will also be surging
The government are damned if they do and damned if they don't

Yeah I don't really get why covid is the only virus were worried about about becoming vaccine resistant. The vaccine doesn't stop you getting covid so even if every single person in the UK was vaccinated wed still be at risk of a vaccine resistant strain. So I don't really understand why people want to keep restrictions. There will never be zero covid. May as well stay in forever then.

Of course it is becuase he is opening up too soon when conditions are optimal for breeding vaccine resistance. Waiting until vaccine coverage is higher will reduce the chance of breeding vaccine resistance. He has been warned of the risks by sage but has ignored them.

That's only true if enough people would have followed the rules during that extension. From what I've seen so far, and especially from what I've read on here, most people stopped following them months ago. That's what matters, not whether something is technically allowed or not.

@IvorHughJarrs

It is a concern but the flip side is that delaying opening pushes the inevitable surge that will bring from the summer when people are outdoors more into the autumn/winter when people are indoors and flu, RSV and other viruses will also be surging The government are damned if they do and damned if they don't

Some models are showing that even with opening up our cases will not peak until the autumn/winter anyway.

Model attached

Is there another by-election coming up?

Actually yes, tomorrow in Tividale!

I for one agree with what Boris is doing. Look at Israel. They vaccinated everyone and fast. But now covid is back.

There is no perfect way of doing this. Whatever any country does they appear to get screwed.