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The Johnson variant - England's gift to the world

68 replies

Indigopearl · 15/07/2021 20:38

Is anyone else worried about the degree of circulation of covid amongst the fully and partially vaccinated?

According to the zoe app cases in the unvaccinated have peaked.
covid.joinzoe.com/post/new-cases-plateau-aead-of-freedom-day
Although that sounds like a good thing it means that growth is now concentrated in the vaccinated population increasing the chance of producing a vaccine resistant variant.

The combination of high cases and spread in a partially vaccinated population is the perfect scenario for breeding vaccine resistance.
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01938-4

Will this be the ultimate legacy of the Johnson government?

OP posts:
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Indigopearl · 15/07/2021 22:09

@PurpleOkapi

Of course it is becuase he is opening up too soon when conditions are optimal for breeding vaccine resistance. Waiting until vaccine coverage is higher will reduce the chance of breeding vaccine resistance. He has been warned of the risks by sage but has ignored them.

That's only true if enough people would have followed the rules during that extension. From what I've seen so far, and especially from what I've read on here, most people stopped following them months ago. That's what matters, not whether something is technically allowed or not.

I agree in part but clear messaging does mean that more people would follow the rules even if some do not.

The models reported on by sage state that very small changes in behaviour lead to very different trajectories of infections, hospitalisations and deaths due to exponential growth. If you look at the attached the difference between keeping r at 1.1 and 2.1 is difference between 100 hospitalisation a day and 4000 hospitalisations a day. This means that simple behaviours like wearing a mask can make a huge impact.

The Johnson variant - England's gift to the world
OP posts:
Canigooutyet · 15/07/2021 22:12

Was on another thread about the same thing. I said on there I knew about antibiotic resistant strains but not vax resistant.

Went onto Google and searched because I was wondering why this is only an issue now? As a pp pointed out, why not other vaccines?

Found this could be a load of bollock though

doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717159115

Northernsoullover · 15/07/2021 22:16

I really don't know what the answer is at this stage. I don't understand those who will be in a rush to eliminate social distancing and masks but yes, if we don't do it now when will we?

Indigopearl · 15/07/2021 22:21

@roses2

I for one agree with what Boris is doing. Look at Israel. They vaccinated everyone and fast. But now covid is back.

There is no perfect way of doing this. Whatever any country does they appear to get screwed.

Isreal is only at the same level of vaccination as the UK which is unfortunately not high enough. Infections and deaths are substantially lower than in the UK though - 2 deaths a day at the moment.
The Johnson variant - England's gift to the world
OP posts:
PurpleOkapi · 15/07/2021 22:23

I don't think messaging has much to do with it at this point. People aren't ignoring the rules because they don't understand that those rules might prevent transmission. And if there are some who don't understand that now, they're never going to understand it no matter what anyone says or does, because we've had nearly non-stop messaging about all of it for over a year now. People are ignoring them because they're tired of them and no longer believe the risk posed by covid justifies the continued restrictions, at least as far as it affects them personally. That's ultimately a matter of opinion.

For the past year, there's been this underlying assumption that reducing cases is more important than any other possible consideration. People are starting to push back on that, and rightly so, in my opinion. We're long overdue for real conversations about how best to balance the needs and wants of competing groups.

Pixxie7 · 15/07/2021 22:23

It was called Johnson’s variant on PMs questions yesterday.

PurpleOkapi · 15/07/2021 22:24

Was on another thread about the same thing. I said on there I knew about antibiotic resistant strains but not vax resistant.

Covid is a virus. Antibiotics aren't effective against viruses.

forfucksakenett · 15/07/2021 22:24

@MaxNormal

Hardly Johnson's fault if the vaccines have proved a bit shit at stopping infection. And I'm no fan of the man.
Jesus Christ.
Indigopearl · 15/07/2021 22:32

**
'For the past year, there's been this underlying assumption that reducing cases is more important than any other possible consideration. People are starting to push back on that, and rightly so, in my opinion. We're long overdue for real conversations about how best to balance the needs and wants of competing groups'

I see your point and yes we should have this conversation however I would argue that it isn't the restrictions that are controlling peoples lives it is the virus.

Yes we can bin all restrictions and open up fully to meet a different groups needs but I would argue that this opening up will be fleeting because:
a) too many people will be off sick and essential services will not be able to cope
b) people who are sick with things other than covid will not get the treatment they need becuase health staff are off sick or dealing with covid cases
c) high infection levels and partial vaccination may lead to vaccine escape and put us back at square one
d) children's education will continue to suffer
I could go on.

OP posts:
Delatron · 15/07/2021 22:37

‘For the sake of a few months’
But then we’re going in to autumn, schools go back other illnesss around. Is that really when we want to push the third wave to?

Canigooutyet · 15/07/2021 22:40

@PurpleOkapi

Was on another thread about the same thing. I said on there I knew about antibiotic resistant strains but not vax resistant.

Covid is a virus. Antibiotics aren't effective against viruses.

Shame you also missed off the rest of what I said

Went onto Google and searched because I was wondering why this is only an issue now? As a pp pointed out, why not other vaccines?

I am more than aware that antibiotics aren't used to treat this and I didn't suggest it was.

TableFlowerss · 15/07/2021 22:48

Nature does what it wants.

You could vaccinate everybody in the land, but **guess what? With international travel, if a new vaccine resistant variant does appear, then being vaccinated 100 times over, won’t matter.

So the whole ‘Ohh we need to keep restrictions yada yada’ is pointless.

The sooner people realise this the better.

OuiOuiKitty · 15/07/2021 22:49

I agree OP and the rest of the world won't take too kindly to it if it happens. I don't understand the thinking behind it. It is like no one in government in England has ever heard of herd immunity through vaccination. England is no where near, last I saw London had only vaccinated 40 something percent of their adult population. No one is saying England should lock down but to get rid of very simple non medical mitigations like masks and social distancing as a populist move is reckless.

TableFlowerss · 15/07/2021 22:51

I can’t actually believe that people genuinely think that’s we can prevent a variant resistant to vaccines by keeping restrictions.

If only it were that simple Confused

Sweettea1 · 15/07/2021 22:54

I do not like Johnson.
You can not blame him for other people's actions the majority of people have not listened to a word he said. So I agree with his way of thinking might aswell open up an get businesses back up and running since everyone doing what they want anyway. People do not have to go out or go the football or go pubs or clubs just because they are open. People need to think for themselves and do what they need to keep themselves safes it's not upto Johnson anymore when everyone knows they are taking a risk.

PurpleOkapi · 15/07/2021 23:01

*Shame you also missed off the rest of what I said

Went onto Google and searched because I was wondering why this is only an issue now? As a pp pointed out, why not other vaccines?

I am more than aware that antibiotics aren't used to treat this and I didn't suggest it was.*

So when you posted "I was on another thread about the same thing" and "I knew about antibiotic resistant strains," with no context, on a thread about vaccine-resistant covid variants, everyone was supposed to know you were talking about some unspecified bacteria having nothing to do with covid?

Shelddd · 15/07/2021 23:05

It's nice to be a scientist and look at an issue in a silo. Boris has to actually look at it from politicians viewpoint and consider more than just health of population.

By the way if we only looked at the health of the people.. smoking would be illegal, candy would be illegal, you would have mandated 1 hour of exercise a day, frying food in vegetable oil would be illegal, alcohol would be illegal, we would stop building because of high rate of construction related accidents (i believe highest in any industry), sex with anyone other than a virgin would be banned - only 1 partner for life. No driving can only take trains and planes as they are many factors safer than automobiles.... I can do this all day.. get the point? Probably not unfortunately.

SiobhanSharpe · 15/07/2021 23:06

The Zoe piece from which the OP quoted (but crucially neglected to add the next bit giving the probable reason why cases in unvaccinated people are falling while cases in the vaccinated population are rising) actually goes on to say....
"This is probably because we’re running out of unvaccinated susceptible people to infect as more and more people get the vaccine. Whilst the figures look worrying, it’s important to highlight that vaccines have massively reduced severe infections and post-vaccination COVID is a much milder disease for most people."

Canigooutyet · 15/07/2021 23:07

Keeping things as the status quo is also bringing about those issues you ment due to the constant closures of schools. Once close contacts no longer have to isolate then people can get back to work, assuming they aren't ill.

In normal times if I called my boss and said I might have chicken pox and I might have been near someone contagious so need to have a week off, my sanity would seriously be questioned.

When rotavirus was rampant the only time whole departments and classes closed was if they all got it. To protect the vulnerable we have never had mass periods of isolation involving everyone they may or may not come into contact.

And how is being locked at home any good for those vulnerable children who look forward to school to escape home? It's the only thing that is seriously keeping some of them going.

How is it doing the vulnerable any good when nhs staff have to take time off? Not because they are ill but because their child may have come into close contact?

How is it helping the vulnerable to isolate thus having their minimum wage cut down to ssp.

With the guidelines lifted from schools how will it really disrupt education? A majority of the teachers will have been double vaxed for starters. Schools should already have plans in place to support pupils absent due to illness. Schools will also be able to use substitutes again to deliver lessons, which ideally the teacher should have a couple of lessons planned out in advance and copies given to hoy.

Yea I know this isn't the same as x,y and z. But we have to look at this logically. We know it's here to stay. So we either carry on with the restrictions and extend this to include all those other illnesses that can be critical to the vulnerable, or we accept we have to get used to having to live with it.

If we don't do it now, when? In a year's time, when we have gotten over the winter bugs seasons?

OuiOuiKitty · 15/07/2021 23:26

If we don't do it now, when? In a year's time, when we have gotten over the winter bugs seasons?
When you have reached herd immunity through vaccination.

Funny you mention the effect on the vulnerable and those on minimum wage. Who do you think the 65% of adults of adults who are not fully vaccinated are? You can guarantee it isn't the rich. You are kidding yourself if you think there isn't a socioeconomic divide when it comes to the vaxed vs the unvaxed population.

You talk about schools are schools not closing for the holidays anyway? Why not wait until after schools return for 'freedom day' and give more of the population a chance to be fully vaccinated?

OuiOuiKitty · 15/07/2021 23:27

That should say the 65% of adults in London that are not fully vaccinated.

TableFlowerss · 16/07/2021 09:14

@Shelddd

It's nice to be a scientist and look at an issue in a silo. Boris has to actually look at it from politicians viewpoint and consider more than just health of population.

By the way if we only looked at the health of the people.. smoking would be illegal, candy would be illegal, you would have mandated 1 hour of exercise a day, frying food in vegetable oil would be illegal, alcohol would be illegal, we would stop building because of high rate of construction related accidents (i believe highest in any industry), sex with anyone other than a virgin would be banned - only 1 partner for life. No driving can only take trains and planes as they are many factors safer than automobiles.... I can do this all day.. get the point? Probably not unfortunately.

Exactly!
MrsSkylerWhite · 16/07/2021 09:17

Yesterday 21:18 BoomChicka

If vaccination doesn't stop transmission (which it doesn't, I know lot's of people with covid now, including me, all vaccinated) then how does more vaccinated people help matters? Genuine question.

Because vaccination significantly reduces both likelihood of transmission and symptoms in most cases. Doesn’t everyone know this by now?

DottyHarmer · 16/07/2021 10:07

Those arguing for more vaccination… you can only really hope for high adult and possibly later 12+ rates. Full population vaccination including every single child from birth is an impossible ask.

Also I think some defeat their own arguments with all the talk of vaccines being ineffective. People will just not bother if the general sentiment is that they are of little use.

Also the “protect the NHS” message needs a rethink. The NHS does not exist in order to exist.

QueenStromba · 16/07/2021 10:26

@Bitofachinwag

So how did this work when people started being vaccinated against measles and smallpox (for example)? Did vaccinating against them cause the virus to mutate and change?
Measles is also an RNA virus with a high mutation rate but it's antigenically stable which means it has so far been unable to mutate in such a way that it evades immunity while still being able to infect human cells. It might be capable of overcoming this but as there's never much of it about due to high levels of immunity, it doesn't get much of a chance to. If it did start to evade immunity then we would have time to spot this happening, adjust the vaccine and revaccinate everyone at a leisurely pace.

Smallpox is a DNA virus so has a much lower mutation rate. It isn't infectious before symptoms start and has a long incubation period, it is therefore easy to identify cases and track their contacts before they become infectious. The high mortality rate provides sufficient motivation to do this that cases were never allowed to get to high rates. Vaccine escape mutants were therefore never going to be a problem.

SARS-CoV-2 is antigenically unstable, has a high mutation rate and has been allowed to circulate practically unchecked in a population with partial immunity. Immune escape is basically a certainty in this case. It's more a case of when it will happen than if it will happen.