The Johnson variant - England's gift to the world

[Indigopearl]

Is anyone else worried about the degree of circulation of covid amongst the fully and partially vaccinated?

According to the zoe app cases in the unvaccinated have peaked.
covid.joinzoe.com/post/new-cases-plateau-aead-of-freedom-day
Although that sounds like a good thing it means that growth is now concentrated in the vaccinated population increasing the chance of producing a vaccine resistant variant.

The combination of high cases and spread in a partially vaccinated population is the perfect scenario for breeding vaccine resistance.
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01938-4

Will this be the ultimate legacy of the Johnson government?

The reason it's called the Johnson Variant is nothing to do with the restrictions and whether prople are following the rules or not, it's because he delayed putting India on the Red list for weeks after Bangladesh and Pakistan were put there, when cases in India were much higher.

All because he wanted to do a showboaty visit to Modi to get one of his new marvellous trade deals. The trip was only cancelled at the very last minute and then only at the instigation of India.

The delay in bringing in restrictions allowed tens of thousands of potentially infected people into the country bring a variant which is much more dangerous than what was here previously.

Criminally irresponsible.

Waiting until vaccine coverage is higher

It's pretty high, one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, we aren't going to get much higher. Look at the vaccine data, second doses are still coming in, but we've pretty much reached the peak for first vaccinations.

If we were starting from a position of near perfect vaccine protection like we are with measles then yes, locking everybody up for a few weeks until we’d vaccinated 100% of the current population and closing the borders Australia-style could work. But you’d have to keep those borders shut forever because there are billions of people in partially vaccinated populations around the world acting as target practice for the virus.

But the delta variant is already pretty good at transmitting in vaccinated people. So it’s far too late for that - and in fact it was probably always not going to work. If Sajid Javid could snap his fingers now and make everyone entirely vaccinated the delta variant would still keep transmitting through the population, albeit at a reduced level to what it would be in an unvaccinated population. And there will be enough cases going around for mutations to take place, and a huge selection advantage to mutations which get past vaccine protection and can still transmit. However there is no obvious selection pressure for the virus to become more harmful or to overcome the key function of the vaccine in preventing serious illness - except insofar as the vaccine performs both functions in the same way. So I’m not panicking.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

England’s pandemic restrictions on Monday is a threat to the world and provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants, international experts say.

At an emergency summit on Friday government advisers in New Zealand, Israel and Italy sounded alarm bells about Downing Street’s policy, while more than 1,200 scientists backed a letter to the Lancet journal warning that the strategy could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop.

The letter said: “We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021.”

“The world is watching the current avoidable crisis unfold in the UK,” said Dr Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, who is taking part in Friday’s summit.

She added on Twitter: “Let’s be under no illusions – we are in a country where our government is taking steps to maximally expose our young to a virus that causes chronic illness in many. Our govt is ending all protections for our children including isolation of contacts of cases in schools & bubbles.”

The summit, All the Citizens, was broadcast live on YouTube at noon UK time.

@beguilingeyes

The reason it's called the Johnson Variant is nothing to do with the restrictions and whether prople are following the rules or not, it's because he delayed putting India on the Red list for weeks after Bangladesh and Pakistan were put there, when cases in India were much higher.

All because he wanted to do a showboaty visit to Modi to get one of his new marvellous trade deals. The trip was only cancelled at the very last minute and then only at the instigation of India.

The delay in bringing in restrictions allowed tens of thousands of potentially infected people into the country bring a variant which is much more dangerous than what was here previously.

Criminally irresponsible.

🤣 ‘Criminal responsibility’ Behave 😂

You could say those that went to India are to blame to by your reasoning in that case. No one forced them to go….

@Indigopearl

I look at what the scientists are saying and it is pretty unanimous that it is totally reckless. For the sake of a couple of months of caution this strategy risks throwing the UK and the rest of the world into more lockdowns.

It's always another 'couple of months' though, isn't it?

Another 'couple of months' and we're well into autumn. Schools back and flu season on the horizon. Not sure why it would be better opening up then rather than in high summer. And no doubt you'd be begging for another 'couple of months' delay if it was even suggested.

It is simple. It is far better to gain immunity through vaccination than infection. Opening up now will not put us in a better place in the autumn. Many of the models say cases might not even peak to october if we open now.

The most likely scenario now though is another u turn in a few weeks.

A lot of people would have been visiting family, coming here to see family, or students, or for work. And none of them is running the country. He should have restricted flights and didn't.

I see it this way: “herd immunity” won’t work with or without vaccination given the need for the entire world population of human beings to be vaccinated in incredibly high percentages incredibly quickly for this to happen before vaccine escape happens somewhere in the world. Why would a country get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible and then do fuck all with that, choosing instead to behave as though nobody is vaccinated until the vaccination programme has become useless worldwide due to the partial vaccination of the world population? Are we to just keep giving increasingly unwilling populations vaccination after updated vaccination, all of which carry risks and none of which are allowed to confer any benefits whatsoever, for eternity, as the virus mutates faster than the world can be vaccinated, even if everyone is told they must not take any risks until everyone is vaccinated? Will any country in the world be able to afford to keep producing updated vaccine after updated vaccine that never achieves anything for any country, because not enough can be ever be produced and injected in arms quickly enough to ensure there is no vaccine escape? And do people really think it is possible for countries to isolate from each other for long, given the fact we are totally reliant on regular contact with other countries to survive, as no country in the world is entirely self-sufficient, given the excess of humanity on the planet? Yes, we could retain more restrictions, but any release of restrictions is a risk, so still wearing masks does not guarantee us protection from vaccine escape. Nothing we do or do not do guarantees anything whatsoever, so however clever people pretend to be, nobody actually knows how to get out of this mess.
How many countries need to have a reasonable level of vaccination, and which countries, before vaccinated people can begin to rely on their vaccines to be allowed to live their lives?

It is simple.

It really isn't.

Criminally irresponsible.

Yes. Johnson and his government are taking action they know will kill and disable huge numbers.

That said, with the high risk conditions in the UK, for a vaccine resistant Johnson strain to develop, it's on the rest of the world to shut their borders to plague island. They don't have to be like us in welcoming in and allowing to spread freely dangerous new strains.

@Indigopearl

It is simple. It is far better to gain immunity through vaccination than infection. Opening up now will not put us in a better place in the autumn. Many of the models say cases might not even peak to october if we open now.

The most likely scenario now though is another u turn in a few weeks.

It will be quicker than that.

Wait until higher db jabbed rates, before opening up, that'll mean less people filling up the NHS

So yes simple.

I think the u turn will be quicker than a few weeks. I hope so anyway.

@SonnetForSpring

I think the u turn will be quicker than a few weeks. I hope so anyway.

There won’t be a u-turn. In another 3 weeks there’ll be millions more adults had they’d second vaccine. All the more reason not to u-turn

Just wait 2 more months right? ... Come October.. well it's beginning of flu (and now covid) season just wait till end of flu season.. end of flu season... New variant.. just wait for boosters.. after boosters... Ahh it's flu season again..

You've had a year and a half! Go away. Let us live our lives.

You can not blame him for other people's actions the majority of people have not listened to a word he said.

No wonder that nobody listens to him @Sweettea1 when he lies almost every time he opens his gob.

I'm an optometrist and several of my patients who have AMD have been unable to have their regular injections and are now functionally blind. I don't want anyone else to needlessly suffer

How has covid prevented people having necessary injections? That's the fault of the medical staff concerned for putting covid theatre above medical need. Like the B12 injections. If I can go and give blood without undue risk why on earth can't people have injections (which are much quicker).

more than 1,200 scientists backed a letter to the Lancet journal warning that the strategy could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop

why have they only said this now, when this was signposted a month ago when the original "freedom day" was put back a month? Why not say it then? The legislation has been passed now. Pointless.