When is this wave expected to peak?

[Thelm]

I can’t find much info on this online (and it may be that we don’t know) but does any have any information/links they can share with me please?

Thanks in advance.

We don't know as we aren't introducing any measures to control it. This is a new approach and so a bit of an experiment to see what happens between vaccines and delta.

It will peak soon after schools break up. But will depend on if the relaxations exceed the r from schools.

@HSHorror

It will peak soon after schools break up. But will depend on if the relaxations exceed the r from schools.

How do you know that?

I just read something suggesting late August for Wales according to modelling.

Well because everything adds into the r. It's mostly school age kids at the moment. If schools are 0.5 of r then say bristol 1.5 will go down to about 1.

@HSHorror

Well because everything adds into the r. It's mostly school age kids at the moment. If schools are 0.5 of r then say bristol 1.5 will go down to about 1.

But if theres no restrictions outside of schools then surely the transmission will just occur between children somewhere else? They aren't going to stay at home all summer.

We also have a few mass events coming up in UK...

I think it might be nearer September...but then schools go back, then universities. So to be honest, there doesn't seem to be much that will control it at the moment. I think Wimbledon, euros all other large events will make up for schools not being open.

I would imagine it will go down a bit in summer (kids not mixing in close contact with so many every day) but I thinn Winter will be... interesting.

Here's the link for the wales suggestion - www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/covid-deaths-peak-august-third-20901921

Children not being at school could mean children being outdoors (low transmission), hanging out with say a handful of friends regularly indoors (so a sort of bubble) or in the case of older kids sat in front of a games console for hours per day. I think cases in children will fall over the summer but travelling (and not quarantining ) poses a bigger potential threat like last summer. I know that there's many double jabbed people but unless they check that people are quarantining, I think there's a massive potential problem there. How easy is it to show fake vaccine info? I've seen blank NHS vaccination cards selling on eBay.

Once we reach vaccination-induced herd immunity maybe? Only 49.5% of people have had both doses so maybe when that gets to 70% or so?

@TotorosCatBus

Children not being at school could mean children being outdoors (low transmission), hanging out with say a handful of friends regularly indoors (so a sort of bubble) or in the case of older kids sat in front of a games console for hours per day. I think cases in children will fall over the summer but travelling (and not quarantining ) poses a bigger potential threat like last summer. I know that there's many double jabbed people but unless they check that people are quarantining, I think there's a massive potential problem there. How easy is it to show fake vaccine info? I've seen blank NHS vaccination cards selling on eBay.

True. Many people still seem determined to go on holiday.

The original hotspots of Blackburn and Bedford are around their peak or even declining already. Many areas will reach their peak naturally in the next few weeks.
Then schools will break up anyway which are now the main body of unvaccinated people, so that will reduce transmission. Activities such as holiday clubs tend to be smaller numbers and use outdoor fields or large spaces such as sports halls so are less of a contact risk than classrooms.

Well-vaccinated areas seem to have resisted the increase better and that will lead to quicker, smaller peaks as there are fewer suceptible people for easy routes of transmission.

Universities will be less of a driver in September as 18+ are already eligible for vaccination and many students will be approaching time for their second dose. They are also easy institutions for organising pop-up clinics to cover the gaps.

It’s a suck it and see kind of situation.

India’s recent peak seemed to decline without much intervention. I say seemed because their testing provision was questionable, there’s a lot of rural villages etc. that don’t receive much attention and there were self-initiated restrictions like private companies implementing wfh certainly in the larger cities.

Personally I think the school holidays and the completion of the football should contribute to a noticeable decline.

Looking at England around 72% of all those double jabbed so far are in the over 50s. Over 50s make up around 38% of the total population in England. But just 10% of cases in the last week.

20-29s 13% of the population, 33% of cases, around 5% of the total double jabbed population.

5-19s so largely school age although the older end obviously not, 30% of cases from just under 18% of the population. Bulk of them not eligible for a jab.

30-49s fairly consistent across the piece 24% cases, 26% population, 22% of those double jabbed.

Uni areas really showing up too. So once they go home to hopefully jabbed parents without hopefully infecting younger siblings

When schools break up, families will be going on holiday to other parts and around that time is the aim to open everything up. Not fact based, but I'm thinking mid/end Sept. All 18+ will have been double jabbed by then, hopefully we'll have learnt if any of the restrictions needs tightening up a bit.

Mid August I think. Once the schools finish kids won't be in such close contact. Mine will play out all summer.

Never. It's going to go on and on and on and on, until everyone has had it three times.

HAVEN'T YOU HEARD OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH????

Just thought I'd preempt the usual suspects and their comments. In reality, nobody knows. And this wave is far less serious as although cases are high, deaths and hospitalisations are low.

Once we reach vaccination-induced herd immunity maybe? Only 49.5% of people have had both doses so maybe when that gets to 70% or so?

Looking like August we'll have 70% of entrie population double jabbed though NI is looking like it will be September.

covidvax.live/location/gbr

So I would imagine by August with schools out a few weeks and vaccination rates high the virus will start to struggle to spread - then we'll have to see what winter and school being back brings.

Are you're asking about England specifically? Or UK? School holidays vary massively between the UK countries, Scottish kids broke up last week and will be back in August however given the number of tourists about I doubt the schools being shut will make much difference.

@ifonly4

When schools break up, families will be going on holiday to other parts and around that time is the aim to open everything up. Not fact based, but I'm thinking mid/end Sept. All 18+ will have been double jabbed by then, hopefully we'll have learnt if any of the restrictions needs tightening up a bit.

Why do you think that that all 18+ will be double jabbed?

That's never going to happen and I don't think anyone is expecting that are they, it would be impossible to get a whole population vaccinated against anything

Scotland isn't on track to hit 70% of population double jabbed till August 10 - which is a bit late for their school term..

England and Wales should be done in 22 and 2 of August repectively so before schools go back September.

Wales is a tourist hotspot so that might count against decreases in those areas. Though this bit of Wales isn't a big trousit place and we've had high levels most of pandemic but not this last wave - though we do have high vaccination levels.

Expected to peak in August is what I’ve heard (NHS worker - England)