When is this wave expected to peak?

[Thelm]

I can’t find much info on this online (and it may be that we don’t know) but does any have any information/links they can share with me please?

Thanks in advance.

Nobody knows because we don't know what happens if we don't have a lockdown and if the population is vaccinated (last two waves have peaked 3 weeks after lockdown). We do have to live with this virus so a sensible government would have spent the last year increasing capacity and resource in the NHS so we can cope with the peak that occurs in a vaccinated population.

Peak in mid-August.

Next peak, beginning late September.

Look at the school term dates and add three weeks…

It’s not school-aged kids driving it, though, it’s cases in 20-somethings.

Dunno when it’ll peak. Hopefully not long? Looks like the cases in 20-29 year olds might be starting to level off so hopefully it starts going down for the rest rather than shooting up elsewhere.

I think that the UK is following Hollywood disaster movies rather than the science. The ones where the self proclaimed good guys take a mad risk that pays off and saves the day.

There is no precedent. No one knows for sure or can even predict. The UK is a giant Petri dish and the rest of the world is observing from a socially distant and restricted safe distance. The UK is literally doing the opposite of what WHO advise when cases are rising based on a hoped for game changing impact of vaccination. Could be hubris. Could be genius. Place your bets. (Disclaimer: residence in the UK is assumed automatic informed consent to anything/nothing and you hereby rescind all rights in the event of loss of livelihood/heath or life if it all goes belly up).

@GoldenOmber

It’s not school-aged kids driving it, though, it’s cases in 20-somethings.

Dunno when it’ll peak. Hopefully not long? Looks like the cases in 20-29 year olds might be starting to level off so hopefully it starts going down for the rest rather than shooting up elsewhere.

The cases in school age children are pretty much exactly the same as those in their 20s (you need to add the 3 age bands together) which is pretty much as you would expect as those are the age groups that don't have 2 fully effective jabs

More proof that the vaccines are working to reduce cases

Hmm, hard to say, what did we estimate for summer colds back in 2019? Maybe use that as a guide?

If its expected to peak mid/late August. That's an awful lot of cases... I don't see how they can just get rid of restrictions. Something makes me think they are lying again to keep people sane...

I also think when schools break up we will see the decline then.

But I do think that depends on how the relax restrictions in July.

Mini mid august peak. Some sort of virus end of Sept, Big respiritory illness peak in early December including covid

The cases in school age children are pretty much exactly the same as those in their 20s (you need to add the 3 age bands together)

…but also take out a good chunk of the 15-19s, who are not at school.

My point though is that it’s hard to look at that graph breaking down cases by age and conclude that the problem is schools, rather than wherever the 20-29 year olds are spending their time.

Worldometer is projecting a peak at the end of August with 135k cases a day (under the 'worse' opening everything up scenario and a later peak in the Autumn in the 'current projection' low mobility scenario)

@GoldenOmber

The cases in school age children are pretty much exactly the same as those in their 20s (you need to add the 3 age bands together)

…but also take out a good chunk of the 15-19s, who are not at school.

My point though is that it’s hard to look at that graph breaking down cases by age and conclude that the problem is schools, rather than wherever the 20-29 year olds are spending their time.

And add back the number of 20-29s who work in schools or caught it from their school child, there's really not going to be much in it

135k seems low by mid August...

Scotland’s cases today. Our schools broke up at the end of last week, so maybe too early to see any impact on case numbers yet.

I think you have to bend quite far over backwards to assume schools are the driver with a pattern like that. But hopefully schools closing for summer will help at least.

@Bytheloch

Hmm, hard to say, what did we estimate for summer colds back in 2019? Maybe use that as a guide?

Oh I don’t know @Bytheloch. What did we use for summer colds in 2019? I’m assuming you read the part of my OP where I asked for links to helpful information so if you could provide the link to the information to which you’re referring, that would be very useful indeed.

Thanks!

Thanks to everyone who has provided useful information and links.

Those graphs are choosing the age ranges to sell the story they want to spin. Do we have a source that splits it into even sized age cohorts?

It would seem in NI cases have been related to the schools as well as the younger age group 20-39 many of whom will have school aged children.
Schools have just broken up this week in NI so it will be interesting to see if cases will now drop.

Mike Tildesley said today we weren’t at the peak but Spector or someone said we’re past it

Those graphs are choosing the age ranges to sell the story they want to spin.

@KOKOagainandagain

I think that the UK is following Hollywood disaster movies rather than the science. The ones where the self proclaimed good guys take a mad risk that pays off and saves the day.

There is no precedent. No one knows for sure or can even predict. The UK is a giant Petri dish and the rest of the world is observing from a socially distant and restricted safe distance. The UK is literally doing the opposite of what WHO advise when cases are rising based on a hoped for game changing impact of vaccination. Could be hubris. Could be genius. Place your bets. (Disclaimer: residence in the UK is assumed automatic informed consent to anything/nothing and you hereby rescind all rights in the event of loss of livelihood/heath or life if it all goes belly up).

@KOKOagainandagain what approach does the WHO advise?

Goldenomber- dont scotland still have masks in schools in secondary?

@SonnetForSpring

135k seems low by mid August...

Very low on the current trajectory. We’re probably less than 3 weeks away from 100k.

@GoldenOmber

Those graphs are choosing the age ranges to sell the story they want to spin.

Well isn't that an incisive comnent you've made there. Please explain why the person who created the histograms chose to vary the age ranges for each bar and has used different age ranges for each graph. It is essential we critically examine data and how it's presented so we understand the difference between the motivation of the person presenting the data and the actual story the data is telling us. If the way the data is presented makes us have to work to determine what the real story is then it's not trustworthy.

First graph: four bars capturing cohorts of 5 years then 7 bars capturing cohorts of 10 years. Why were the cases in the under 20s not presented in 10 year cohorts? If it was all presented in 10 year cohorts it would be clear that the cases recorded in school children and people in their 20s were pretty similar (and since there's no requirement to regularly test primary age children that probably has an impact on the age 10-19 positive tests, as well as the very low numbers in the under 10s). So what's the motivation for suggesting to the casual observer that the issue is in young adults and not in children?

Second graph: 14 years, 5 years, 5 years, 20 years, 20 years, 10 years, 10 years, 10 years. We can see that cases are highest in the under 25s and they decrease with age but not a lot else because of the way the data is presented, it's deliberately obfuscating. So again, what is the motivation to suggest ages 25 to 44 have the highest number of cases?

Please explain why the person who created the histograms chose to vary the age ranges for each bar and has used different age ranges for each graph.

It is not ‘the person’ and it is not a one-off bar chart for this week. It is how Public Health England and Public Health Scotland count this routinely - the person who does those charts just pulls the numbers from the publicly available data, and has since March last year. (And is if I recall right a man in his early 20s, so hardly has a nefarious motivation to pretend that the issue is with 20-somethings.)

So what you’ve got is data that looks like cases aren’t being ‘driven by’ schools, and two possible explanations for why it looks like that:

A) cases aren’t being driven by schools;
B) cases are being driven by schools, but PHE and PHS have worked together from the start to cover this up and also work with all the amateur data modellers to make sure they’re in on it too.

You want to go with the conspiracy theory angle that’s your right, but I think the simplest explanation is the one most likely to be true.