When is this wave expected to peak?

[Thelm]

I can’t find much info on this online (and it may be that we don’t know) but does any have any information/links they can share with me please?

Thanks in advance.

It will shoot up about 3 weeks after restrictions end knowing Boris's maths, summer with pubs fully open back to normal, no masks, people travelling on holiday taking it round the country, then steadily rise to levels needing restrictions just in time for schools going back. Knowing Boris he will announce eat out to help out again to keep everyone mixing.

[quote RosesAndHellebores]@RafaIsTheKingOfClay - I’m not sure one does need double the acute hospital provision. We perhaps need to look at the provision and think about specialist units for communicable diseases.[/quote]
This is definitely something that needs considering, or at least proper separation/isolation within hospitals, i.e. wings or floors or blocks capable of operating entirely in isolation.

Isolation is fine, but if you still need the extra beds de somewhere.

I’m not saying you need to double the total number of beds. But if you have the normal number of flu people in beds and then you have the same number of Covid people in beds on top of that then you’ve got much fewer beds for emergency cases.

In reality it’ll be much more nuanced than that the number of MV beds is flexible and admission isn’t based on diagnosis, it’ll be based on clinical need and whether there are any beds left in the country if you need one. Doesn’t really matter too much whether it’s flu, covid, heart attack, stroke or a traumatic brain injury.

@Nat6999

It will shoot up about 3 weeks after restrictions end knowing Boris's maths, summer with pubs fully open back to normal, no masks, people travelling on holiday taking it round the country, then steadily rise to levels needing restrictions just in time for schools going back. Knowing Boris he will announce eat out to help out again to keep everyone mixing.

Yep, exactly this.

The 'wave' will peak about 3 weeks into the next chaotic lockdown.

Hard to know.
It’s most prevalent at schools at the moment as there’s no distancing or masks there.
Schools break up just after 19th July so that will help… but then we ditch masks and distancing everywhere else. I don’t know.
Ask me again the second week of august and it’ll be easier to follow the exponential curve then but previous peaks only happened because of mitigations. There will be none.
I can’t see it peaking any time soon unless they fix the figures.

Rate of infection won't matter if hospitalisations/deaths stay within manageable/acceptable levels as they are now. We've had infection rates rising for many weeks now, but hospitalisations/deaths are rising at much smaller rates (allowing for the 3 week delays).

Infection rates were starting to show signs of falling back at the start of the year before the Jan lockdown. Likewise the Mar 20 lockdown.

The growth in infections is mostly within younger age groups who've not yet had both vaccines and whom are less likely to be badly affected by covid. The vaccines have done the hard work in terms of protecting the vulnerable.