Theres articles in the news today suggesting that Whitty supports the government plan to lift restrictions on the 19th. From what I read this includes the end of school bubble and the end of isolation (instead replaced by testing) for those who are fully vaccinating.
In other words in the medium term the policy shift is from isolating to testing because we have the capacity and ability to now do this (we didn't even a few months ago) and because the risk of both transmission and serious cases for those double vaccinated is much much lower (we are currently at 62% of adults double vaccinated and 85% who have had a single dose). We've still got 3 weeks to run on that before the 19th (incidently although protection isn't immediate and has been cited as 2 to 3 weeks before its at full strength, I think it tends to be shorter in younger patients).
Last night I was hearing that the stream of people booking in for jabs is now beginning to slow - however we are already at 85% so you would actually expect that at this point. We are above the target we had at the stage of the vaccination programme so anything higher is a bonus really. This is cracking - and I expect us to be at least 10 to 15 percentage points higher than a lot of other western countries and will end up with a vaccination rate which is the envy of the world.
Thats the context to where vaccinations are at. This is all good.
Whitty has stressed on previously that cases will be higher on the 19th than they were on the day of the delay announcement. So cases rising is not unexpected nor outside what was anticipated. Infact its the opposite.
What was expected a few weeks ago was for cases to rise more than they actually have - together with hospitalisations. Instead, it turns out the places they were most concerned about had just peaked and many of the places that were just behind them have now peaked too. Today there is talk that Scotland has now peaked for cases.
The latest today is that covid deaths for the last week appear to have dropped more than expected, whilst cases have continued to rise - suggesting that the vaccines push has had effect.
Whitty did however temper all this by saying that the winter will be still challenging.
Other SAGE scientists have said we have a window of opportunity to relax restrictions to reduce other problems going into winter (basically they are worried about childhood illnesses and covid cases peaking mid winter at the worst possible moment and overwhelming services). If we don't go now, we'd potentially need restrictions throughout autumn into winter, is the argument some are making.
I do think this is what SAGE are now really afraid of - no covid - but health issues as a knock on effect of restrictions now creating an alternative crisis.
There's been reports in the last fortnight about how GPs, the ambulance service and A&E are ALL struggling to meet demand at a time of year this is unheard of and its unprecidented for all to be in such trouble (normally its only one service at a time).
I think its a compelling argument.
The positive stuff on covid is coming from all the right places and is encouraging though does come with a note of caution. Its all incredibly reasonable (unsurprisingly).
However the people who were listening very closely to these voices have suddenly decided they are no longer reliable because they want to continue with the status quo because they aren't able to process the change because emotion and anxiety has taken over.
Honestly, we have to move forward. The unintended indirect side effects are the things that are becoming concerning and this is what numerous voices in SAGE itself is now saying. This isn't coming from anti-lockdown campaigners.
We would do well to heed these concerns and recognise if they are saying that, then we HAVE to go ahead with the 19th.
I am yet to hear an alternative suggest which is realistic on all fronts and acknowledges the indirect knock on effects of covid as well as the direct ones. Instead there is a shed ton of emotive language flying about all round and frankly any time I see a point put across which uses this crap rather than putting forward a compelling argument based on reasoning and evidence alone I'm now switching off. Cos its utter bollocks.
The number of people who are DETERMINED to say that its too soon to end restrictions even though its coming from some very sane and very rational scientists who throughout have been rather more cautious than the government itself really alarms me.
There does need to be a concerted effort to wake people up and inform them that we are leaving crisis mode and going into management mood.