Is it actually going to be all over on the 19th?!

[Rainydays55]

The press seemed to have really changed its tone the last few days and the message seems to be clear that after the 19th we will just live with it even if cases are 30/40k a day by then.
I get it, especially if hospitalisations and deaths remain low, it just seems different to what other counties are doing with bringing in more restrictions if they are seeing an increase. I know our vaccine programme has been more successful but do you think this will really be the end of it from next month?! No going backwards in the autumn? Would be great to think it is but I can’t quite believe it!

Of course it’s not. The government lie if you hadn’t realised that already

It’s bad, because more people than ever are testing positive around me. Schools my DC are at, people at work and friends isolating after coming in contact with positive cases. It just seems to be rampant but then according to the news, it’s all but over

So, which is it?

I’m double jabbed, but still don’t want it.

@DinosaurDiana

A school near me was shut for deep cleaning two weeks ago. Yesterday the whole of year 9 and half of year 8 were off again. How can we go from isolating one day to doing nothing the next. It seems crazy.

Because it makes no sense for the whole of year 9 to be off because of one case, especially when the kids are SO unlikely to be badly affected and the teachers are all vaccinated.

Welp, someone else at work is now isolating as they went to a family wedding at the weekend and both their sisters are now positive. One had only just had their first jab but the other was fully dosed.

I could have counted the number of people I knew or heard of who had it on one hand before this, suddenly cases everywhere! I've got another two weeks till my second jab, so a month off being fully vaccinated. Wonder what the case levels will be like by then...

@ChocOrange1not all teachers will be fully vaccinated

No and yes!

No its not over. But this phase is.

We are about to exit the crisis management stage and move into the medium and long term phase of this.

Far too many people do not remotely understand this and there are too many posters on MN who are detached from this reality.

Things have to move on.

When all this started it was stressed that there were health outcomes related to covid and health outcomes related indirectly to the covid situation.

We are now at the tipping point where more harm is going to be done by retaining restrictions than relaxing them. Plus there does need to be enough public goodwill retain in case of another possible crisis point this winter.

The reality is once we have got to the point where everyone has been offered a jab and is at least in the system for their second there is increasingly little that government intervention can achieve and indeed is probably counterproductive.

The vaccines are actually outperforming expectations - even with Delta - after two shots. The data coming in now is actually better than was anticipated just a couple of weeks ago.

I do think that the impact of the euros has been factored in here to a degree and whilst i dont think anything will be brought forward even if England make the final there will be a certain expectation thats going to screw compliance levels. We know that just before restrictions ease people tend to start ignoring them in the days running up to a lifting anyway - and the behavioural scientists will be on the case with that.

So no covid carries on. Yes we are coming out of the crisis stage. But we still have medium and long term management to contend with and that may involve some minor restrictions being intermittently reintroduced particularly over winter. Hopefully that wont be the case, but it has to always remain a possibility in the event of something unexpected happening.

Mediun to long term management includes stuff like working out booster jabs and how to deal with more vulnerable individuals who may remain at risk of covid or for whom the vaccine doesn't work as well (just identifying these individuals is a task). And how to deal with this internationally in practical terms and diplomatic terms (understanding that other places may remain in crisis for sometime yet).

So the crisis is nearly over in the uk, but covid isnt. Important distinction to understand.

@givemushypeasachance

Welp, someone else at work is now isolating as they went to a family wedding at the weekend and both their sisters are now positive. One had only just had their first jab but the other was fully dosed.

I could have counted the number of people I knew or heard of who had it on one hand before this, suddenly cases everywhere! I've got another two weeks till my second jab, so a month off being fully vaccinated. Wonder what the case levels will be like by then...

Higher than in early June.

Sage always expected them to be.

They never said they wouldn't. Whitty made a point of saying they would be higher.

The number of cases isnt the important thing here anymore.

Few people are grasping this properly.

I fear the 19th July will be not a victory but a surrender.

@safariboot

I fear the 19th July will be not a victory but a surrender.

This is the type of post that is particularly annoying.

It makes it sound like its a binary thing rather than the reality that this is all a process with no end but ongoing management which yes, is probably going to fail at times, because of the complex nature of this.

Its not a 'victory' if restrictions are putting jn physical and psychological barriers to people seeking healthcare for other matters.

No one is going to win or lose as such. Normal life where people live and sadly die of shitty things is resuming. As it has to because we have no choice.

Its not about 'anti-lockdowners' v 'people who support more restrictions'. Its about a pragmatic point where you look at what can be done to intervene and whether it is practical and sustainable to carry on and what benefits / disadvantages does this produce.

No easy answers but the reality that we can't stop covid. A zero covid policy is impossible. And even those thought of as most successful at this - eg Australia are finding that this really isnt viable in practice.

Is it actually going to be all over on the 19th?

No. Of course it isn't.

I expect the open up to happen because of this government's long track record of doing stuff that makes things worse for us and better for the virus.

The fact remains that the higher the cases, the higher the hospital admissions, and the higher the death toll.

And evidently, the government intend to let cases get really really high.

They'll be higher than they've ever been in a few weeks.
^
And with nothing to stop them they'll keep^ rising.

(I've no idea for how long. But given that 50% of the population isn't double jabbed yet - there's scope for quite a while.)

@safariboot

I fear the 19th July will be not a victory but a surrender.

Exactly. We're back to February 2020's "Let them all get it."

Not really, as this time most people have been vaccinated. It’s not the same as last year

The 19 July will happen as Boris needs people to keep voting for him. Winter will probably see some harsh measures (introduced too late so having to be harsher and longer, as per) as we are going to have a bit of a clash of potential Covid immunity waning, mega flu season and social distancing/masks being ditched all at the same time.

Teachers are NOT all vaccinated.

I categorically do not want whole ‘bubbles’ (for what they’re worth) closing, and am desperately hoping that mitigations will be put into place for September in order to prevent this. I want us all to be in school, pupils and staff alike.

But, it’s incorrect to say that all teachers are vaccinated. Only a handful of TAs and office staff are double jabbed at my school. I can’t get my second jab until mid August. Am 35 weeks pregnant with gestational diabetes, so it’s not like I’m young and risk free.

@Timeturnerplease, but you WILL be fully vaccinated by September. AFAIK, the rules around schools aren't due to change until then, when all over 18s will have had the chance to get two vaccines + two weeks.

Not quite true.

Several teachers at my school aged 25-29 only have their second vaccine booked for second week of September, so plus two weeks takes them until October to be fully vaccinated.

I think we'll all be fobbed off in July that it's the end only to have more restrictions over winter when it all goes wrong again.
Trying not to be so cynical though!

@Devondonkey

It’s one thing I don’t understand about people not getting the jab because of health anxiety. It means they will almost certainly get Covid at some point. It’s going to be in circulation forever now…

And the vast majority won't get ill from covid. I'm double jabbed but support people's right to choose. It's clear, even those overv80 have a good chance of recovery. People unvaxxed and under 60 are still at very very low risk of getting ill. Let's not forget that.

I think we need a largely restriction free summer (maybe some limits on larger gatherings indoors)

Because we don't know what's round the corner and whether it will be safe to mix in a winter virus season. I hope it will be, but no one can know. And we really need a summer respite.

I hope someone tells the weather gods!

@RosaMoline

Chris Whitty has spoken today to support the 19th. It’s over.

In all the noise he’s one to listen to

It's interesting that death data (prior to mass vaccination) was differentiated so that we were informed of age and whether that person had underling conditions. Ie of 50, in 45 cases the age range was 78 to 101 and the other 5 had pre-existing conditions.

Now it's just 112 were over 50 of which 38 were unvaccinated and 50 were double vaccinated and the rest had single vaccination. But the vaccine is not perfect.

Has patient confidentiality changed, has data collection changed? Why wouldn't we be informed that the double vaccinated were over 80 and/or were vulnerable but the unvaccinated were aged between 50 and 70 and not deemed vulnerable if this were the case? Surely this would boost vaccine uptake?

@DinosaurDiana

A school near me was shut for deep cleaning two weeks ago. Yesterday the whole of year 9 and half of year 8 were off again. How can we go from isolating one day to doing nothing the next. It seems crazy.

Kids don't really need to isolate There should be guidelines for school kids who have been exposed - come to school, test daily for ten days and advised not to go out unnecessarily. In fact that should be guidance for adults too except they should be encouraged to wfh if exposed. Isolation needs to stop.

@KOKOagainandagain

It's interesting that death data (prior to mass vaccination) was differentiated so that we were informed of age and whether that person had underling conditions. Ie of 50, in 45 cases the age range was 78 to 101 and the other 5 had pre-existing conditions.

Now it's just 112 were over 50 of which 38 were unvaccinated and 50 were double vaccinated and the rest had single vaccination. But the vaccine is not perfect.

Has patient confidentiality changed, has data collection changed? Why wouldn't we be informed that the double vaccinated were over 80 and/or were vulnerable but the unvaccinated were aged between 50 and 70 and not deemed vulnerable if this were the case? Surely this would boost vaccine uptake?

Perhaps the data is saying something different that may sway public opinion in the opposite direction? Right now the narrative can be easily controlled over deaths because they’re so low, should they rise and rumours begin about who is being affected they may need to readdress how they categorise deaths.

Yes I think it will be. These are emergancy temporary measures. This is no longer an emergancy by any means. We have to now live with covid as if it were any other illness. There is no other option, restrictions and lockdowns have reached the end of the road, compliance is almost over in real life (mumsnet is a whole other world so it seems!) this is now the recovery phase it’s just going to take some people a very long time to understand that we have to move on. I think we need to stop the case counts, death counts on the news after the 19th and start to live alongside it.

If you are scared at this point after you have had 1 or 2 jabs then you will be scared forever as it isn’t going away!

The time will soon come where people just won’t bother testing.

That’s one way to bring the cases down.