What is the latest from Sage/ Independent Sage?

[SpringRainbow]

The news that social distancing/ masks will (may) be scrapped from the 19th July.

The news that double vaccinated adults will (may) be exempt from isolating when returning from Amber countries (also possibly after close contact with a confirmed positive case).

Plus the news that school children may not need to isolate next school year.

I would have thought we would have had some kind of comment from Sage/ Independent Sage.

I know the WHO appear to be advising masks and social distancing to become the norm.

However, I know that in the weeks before the announcement about the 21st June delay, there were countless experts advising caution.

I kind of expected something from them but I cannot see anything. Admittedly I haven’t looked really hard. I just skimmed the front pages of news websites.

Maybe they're just tired of the same old bullshlt?

I know I am.

By Freedom Day Mark 2: This Time it's Terminal covid case numbers will probably be the highest they've ever been.

Hospitalisations will likely have risen significantly, and thousands of British people will be admitted to hospital with covid every week.

Case numbers and hospitalisations will be rising up through the age groups.

Deaths will be rising.

The government could open up and scrap all NPIs against this backdrop. I wouldn't put it past them.

Or they could say "nobody could have foreseen" - again - and extend restrictions - again.

Who knows what the government will do - but we know what the virus does.

Cases lead to hospitalisations and then deaths.

Cases in the younger age groups spread upwards to the older age groups.

There's nothing new to add.

Are the WHO advising social distancing to become the norm? That would have a devastating impact on many business (including mine).

Very interesting this week.
Zubaida had the floor for the first half looking predominantly at women bearing the inequalities.
They also looked at other inequalities, particularly our treatment of children in relation to covid.
I was actually shocked at the evidence they provided and horrified at the global lack of response!

Prof Semple of SAGE has said:

“I suspect we’ll have a pretty miserable winter because the other respiratory viruses are going to come back and bite us quite hard. But after that, I think we’ll be seeing business as normal next year."

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/children-sage-government-scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-public-health-england-b941583.html

@PrincessNutNuts

Maybe they're just tired of the same old bullshlt?

I know I am.

By Freedom Day Mark 2: This Time it's Terminal covid case numbers will probably be the highest they've ever been.

Hospitalisations will likely have risen significantly, and thousands of British people will be admitted to hospital with covid every week.

Case numbers and hospitalisations will be rising up through the age groups.

Deaths will be rising.

The government could open up and scrap all NPIs against this backdrop. I wouldn't put it past them.

Or they could say "nobody could have foreseen" - again - and extend restrictions - again.

Who knows what the government will do - but we know what the virus does.

Cases lead to hospitalisations and then deaths.

Cases in the younger age groups spread upwards to the older age groups.

There's nothing new to add.

Come on do you really think that numbers are going to be higher than "they've ever been"?? Are you living in a different world to the rest of us, seriously you do realise that almost 2/3 of the adult population have had both jabs now don't you? And yes I know, doesn't fully prevent infection and there may be rare cases where the double jabbed may pass it on, but still the overall pool that the virus can infect (and cause serious illness) is reducing by the day.

@PrincessNutNuts

Maybe they're just tired of the same old bullshlt?

I know I am.

By Freedom Day Mark 2: This Time it's Terminal covid case numbers will probably be the highest they've ever been.

Hospitalisations will likely have risen significantly, and thousands of British people will be admitted to hospital with covid every week.

Case numbers and hospitalisations will be rising up through the age groups.

Deaths will be rising.

The government could open up and scrap all NPIs against this backdrop. I wouldn't put it past them.

Or they could say "nobody could have foreseen" - again - and extend restrictions - again.

Who knows what the government will do - but we know what the virus does.

Cases lead to hospitalisations and then deaths.

Cases in the younger age groups spread upwards to the older age groups.

There's nothing new to add.

You've been saying stuff like this for weeks and it hasn't happened.

Just to add we're currently on a 16day doubling time, yep still 16 days if you look back for when we first hit 7500 compared to today's 15000 for cases.

Doubling time for hospital admissions is currently 35 days (which kind.of shows vaccine is working at vastly reducing the number of admissions)

Doubling time for number of people actually in hospital ... Well tbh the number hasn't actually doubled at all (yet and fingers crossed may not)

Ventilation..ok, this has doubled but from a very low number, the lowest its been this year was 121 and its now

Yeah I heard about the winter predictions.

I was just wondering about all the lifting of restrictions that the Government have been talking about over the last few days and whether they feels that it would cause an explosion in cases/ hospitalisations/ deaths.

I can only assume they must be at least content with them or else they would be quite vocal about how much of a bad idea they think it is. They were incredibly vocal about the 21st June.

Do you think vaccinations are working, @PrincessNutNuts ?

If enough people are vaccinated, would that help matters in your view?

Cases lead to hospitalisations and then deaths.

When would you be expecting this to happen though - because at the moment it simply isnt.

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1408429444163899400

Actually it is all very sensible with the recommendation of

better contact tracing etc.

Can we get an agreed date (from the naysayers) as to when you’ll finally accept that the vaccinations have broken the chain between cases and death?

Two more weeks? I think we have the evidence now (as do many scientists).

The numbers may be very high. Vaccines will mean lots of people have a cold!
We can’t carry on like this and it’s time to start living again.
Wait until 2 weeks after second vaccine has been offered to all adults- fair enough.
Travel is a different ball game due to other countries being rubbish at rolling out the vaccines compared to us- fair enough.
Condemn ourselves and our children to a half life past 2021- NOT FAIR ENOUGH!

@PrincessNutNuts "Nothing new to add" sums up your inaccurate posts and predictions for months.

@TreaslakeandBack yeah, pretty much everyone I know who have had Covid recently, so most likely the Delta variant, regardless of vaccination status have reported cold symptoms.

Whereas over the winter, so safe to assume the Kent or whatever it’s called now variant, there was a wide range of symptoms and severity.

I know the delta variant has caused a lot of issues in India, so I don’t doubt that it can be serious. So I can only assume that the vaccine has done what the scientists have said it will, reduce the severity.

[quote Rosehip10]@PrincessNutNuts "Nothing new to add" sums up your inaccurate posts and predictions for months.[/quote]
You're absolutely free to pull me up on any factual errors, or to stick your own neck out and give your opinion of what the situation will be on July 19th.

@Delatron

Can we get an agreed date (from the naysayers) as to when you’ll finally accept that the vaccinations have broken the chain between cases and death?

Two more weeks? I think we have the evidence now (as do many scientists).

Data not dates.

The ratio of cases to hospital admissions and deaths has changed,

The proportion of cases that result in a hospital admission and/or death has changed.

The lag between cases rising, hospital admissions rising, and deaths rising might have changed.

The time it takes for cases to spread from the younger age groups into the older age groups might have changed.

Changed.

The link is certainly not "broken".

No covid cases = no covid hospital admissions or deaths.

The more cases, the more hospital admissions and deaths.

@IrmaFayLear

Do you think vaccinations are working, *@PrincessNutNuts* ?

If enough people are vaccinated, would that help matters in your view?

Of course.

I was reading on another thread that hospital admissions are falling again.

It’s always ‘give it a couple of weeks and deaths will be sky high again’ only you’ve been saying that for over a month now.

@Quartz2208

Cases lead to hospitalisations and then deaths.

When would you be expecting this to happen though - because at the moment it simply isnt.

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1408429444163899400

Actually it is all very sensible with the recommendation of

You remember before when cases would go up for a while and everyone would say "but hospitalisations aren't going up though."

And then after a while hospitalisations would start to go up and everyone would say "but deaths aren't going up though."

And then after a while deaths would start to go up.

It's that. Again.

Only on a slightly longer timescale because of restrictions and vaccines.

@YNK

Very interesting this week. Zubaida had the floor for the first half looking predominantly at women bearing the inequalities. They also looked at other inequalities, particularly our treatment of children in relation to covid. I was actually shocked at the evidence they provided and horrified at the global lack of response!

I shall listen on my run tomorrow. Fury makes me run faster.

Hospitals won’t be overwhelmed and the death rate won’t be high. Because a huge percentage of the population are double vaccinated. I’m not vulnerable, I’m in my 40s and I’m double vaccinated.

Who are all these thousands of people that are going to die?

All adults over 18 will be vaccinated very soon. Currently 89% of the population have antibodies. It’s not just a ‘lag’ it won’t happen. Not in any great numbers anyway.

@Quartz2208

better contact tracing etc.

Yeah. A functional Test Trace and isolate system what I recommend every time somebody asks me what I would do differently. (And coherent non-farcical border policy and quarantine.)

In some countries that's all they've got.

And they're doing better than us.

@SpringRainbow

Yeah I heard about the winter predictions.

I was just wondering about all the lifting of restrictions that the Government have been talking about over the last few days and whether they feels that it would cause an explosion in cases/ hospitalisations/ deaths.

I can only assume they must be at least content with them or else they would be quite vocal about how much of a bad idea they think it is. They were incredibly vocal about the 21st June.

It’s not going to happen unless it’s followed by a reversal of the irreversible road map plan.

Freedom day 2 was so not going to happen even when they announced it that I’m not sure they can be bothered to start warning people yet. It took them a few weeks with freedom day 1 even though it was clear from the start of May that it was never going to happen.

It’s got shades of the great December reopening when it was really obvious that they were going to have to reverse some of the proposed relaxations for Christmas but were telling everyone it was fine.

If admissions are still doubling, even if it’s 35 days, you are going to reach a point where that’s a problem. The question is how long it takes to get there. Have you pushed back your problem point into winter or is it still doubling enough that it’s August.

*Yeah. A functional Test Trace and isolate system what I recommend every time somebody asks me what I would do differently. (And coherent non-farcical border policy and quarantine.)

In some countries that's all they've got.

And they're doing better than us.

Problem is our cases are too high to create a functional T&T system. The only way it’s possible at this point is to get cases falling so we can get one in place. But it won’t happen, because the government won’t point that out and even if they did they’d have to try again and answer why we are doing it now and not a year ago.