What is the latest from Sage/ Independent Sage?

[SpringRainbow]

The news that social distancing/ masks will (may) be scrapped from the 19th July.

The news that double vaccinated adults will (may) be exempt from isolating when returning from Amber countries (also possibly after close contact with a confirmed positive case).

Plus the news that school children may not need to isolate next school year.

I would have thought we would have had some kind of comment from Sage/ Independent Sage.

I know the WHO appear to be advising masks and social distancing to become the norm.

However, I know that in the weeks before the announcement about the 21st June delay, there were countless experts advising caution.

I kind of expected something from them but I cannot see anything. Admittedly I haven’t looked really hard. I just skimmed the front pages of news websites.

PrincessNutNut P1 and 2 in primary. Some indoor hospitality opened earlier, no half term and lower natural immunity. But yes, probably a couple of weeks ahead.
However schools finished this week for summer, thank fuck. This last week it was constant alternating emails from the school and work office about new cases.

Nope @PrincessNutNuts school term dates for Scotland mirror ours apart from they dont seem to have a May half term.

The difference is an earlier start and finish to the summer holidays.

Plus given the spread in Scotland seems to be predominantly in 15-44 year old men (www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57580118) this one is very much football based rather than schools. (Not saying schools are a driver by the way just that in this case Scotland is a football one and not ahead in terms of school dates at all).

Also Scotland schools resumed after lockdown slower than ours!

@Perihelion

PrincessNutNut P1 and 2 in primary. Some indoor hospitality opened earlier, no half term and lower natural immunity. But yes, probably a couple of weeks ahead. However schools finished this week for summer, thank fuck. This last week it was constant alternating emails from the school and work office about new cases.

Scotland started going back on March 15th - DS was back in school on March 8th. DD was a week later in High School. Scotland didn't get everyone back until the 12th April. They possibly then were a week earlier but actually given that Delta variant didnt kick off until slightly later that wouldnt make a difference.

Plus Scotland is very much the football!

@Perihelion

PrincessNutNut P1 and 2 in primary. Some indoor hospitality opened earlier, no half term and lower natural immunity. But yes, probably a couple of weeks ahead. However schools finished this week for summer, thank fuck. This last week it was constant alternating emails from the school and work office about new cases.

So England can preview how much schools packing up for the summer reduces cases from what happens in Scotland. (I feel like I should say thank you.)

@PrincessNutNuts but Scotland are also out of the football and as I said 2/3 of cases are 15-44 year old men so any drop would be due to that.

@Quartz2208

Nope *@PrincessNutNuts* school term dates for Scotland mirror ours apart from they dont seem to have a May half term.

The difference is an earlier start and finish to the summer holidays.

Plus given the spread in Scotland seems to be predominantly in 15-44 year old men (www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57580118) this one is very much football based rather than schools. (Not saying schools are a driver by the way just that in this case Scotland is a football one and not ahead in terms of school dates at all).

Also Scotland schools resumed after lockdown slower than ours!

Good thing Scotland are out then.

Hopefully England follow suit.

@NannyAndJohn England going out what actually make as much difference - the Italy Austria game for example is currently as Wembley as is the final.

Though it may impact Italy and Austria

Just released. On page 3
"There is significant risk in allowing prevalence to rise, even if hospitalisations & deaths are kept low by vaccination. If it were necessary to reduce prevalence to low levels again (e.g., VoC become more pathogenic) then restrictive measures would be required for much longer”

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/992738/S12166ConsiderationsinnimplementinglongertermmbaselineNPIs.pdf

There's also a lot about the need for the "baseline measures" the Prime Minister scrapped most of yesterday.

Can we get an agreed date (from the naysayers) as to when you’ll finally accept that the vaccinations have broken the chain between cases and death?

I couldn't possibly give you a date because I'm doubtful (with all the variants) that vaccinations will ever be able to do this completely. They certainly haven't done that yet - have they? It's a bit broken - but not completely and new variants will rebuild that chain.

@Dustyboots

Can we get an agreed date (from the naysayers) as to when you’ll finally accept that the vaccinations have broken the chain between cases and death?

I couldn't possibly give you a date because I'm doubtful (with all the variants) that vaccinations will ever be able to do this completely. They certainly haven't done that yet - have they? It's a bit broken - but not completely and new variants will rebuild that chain.

Maybe the gov are not fussed about new variants. It will certainly keep big pharma happy.

A selection of graphs from the Warwick for SAGE modelling.

Hospitalisations in some areas are projected to match or exceed the first wave even in the "optimistic" scenario.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/993358/s12888WarwickRoadMappStep_4.pdf

Chris Whitty says rates of long Covid likely to increase significantly

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has told the Local Government Association that rates of long Covid will increase significantly, and that this won’t be a trivial problem. He told the LGA:

"Since there’s a lot of Covid at the moment and the rates are going up I regret to say I think we will get a significant amount more long Covid, particularly in the younger ages where the vaccination rates are currently much lower.
Fundamentally the two ways to prevent long Covid in my view are to keep Covid rates right down and make sure everyone is vaccinated so they get very mild disease and I think we really just need to push hell for leather for those two.
The deaths from Covid I think are mercifully going to be much lower in this wave compared to the previous ones as a proportion of cases but long Covid remains, I think, a worry.
We don’t know how big an issue it’s going to be but I think we should assume it’s not going to be trivial."

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jul/06/uk-covid-latest-updates-sajid-javid-new-cases-100000-per-day-summer-boris-johnson?page=with:block-60e480c98f08d660ba38bd00#block-60e480c98f08d660ba38bd00

We're back to square fucking one, except this time our government are just going to let it rip.