What is the latest from Sage/ Independent Sage?

[SpringRainbow]

The news that social distancing/ masks will (may) be scrapped from the 19th July.

The news that double vaccinated adults will (may) be exempt from isolating when returning from Amber countries (also possibly after close contact with a confirmed positive case).

Plus the news that school children may not need to isolate next school year.

I would have thought we would have had some kind of comment from Sage/ Independent Sage.

I know the WHO appear to be advising masks and social distancing to become the norm.

However, I know that in the weeks before the announcement about the 21st June delay, there were countless experts advising caution.

I kind of expected something from them but I cannot see anything. Admittedly I haven’t looked really hard. I just skimmed the front pages of news websites.

Come on do you really think that numbers are going to be higher than "they've ever been"??
Are you living in a different world to the rest of us, seriously you do realise that almost 2/3 of the adult population have had both jabs now don't you? And yes I know, doesn't fully prevent infection and there may be rare cases where the double jabbed may pass it on, but still the overall pool that the virus can infect (and cause serious illness) is reducing by the day.
@Whatever9999

It will probably take a week or two after July 19th for cases to reach last Christmas and New Year levels., but I expect that case numbers the week of July 19 will be among some of the highest w've seen.

You've been saying stuff like this for weeks and it hasn't happened

@Waxonwaxoff0

There's a lag.

~16000 daily cases and a doubling time of ~12 days.

Do the maths.

A lot of people posting on this very forum were forecasting weeks ago that the numbers now would be way, way higher than they are now (in terms of cases, hospitalisations and deaths). Just like the Sage stooges and their 'projections' they were not just wrong - they were spectacularly wrong.

@Whatever9999

Just to add we're currently on a 16day doubling time, yep still 16 days if you look back for when we first hit 7500 compared to today's 15000 for cases.

Doubling time for hospital admissions is currently 35 days (which kind.of shows vaccine is working at vastly reducing the number of admissions)

Doubling time for number of people actually in hospital ... Well tbh the number hasn't actually doubled at all (yet and fingers crossed may not)

Ventilation..ok, this has doubled but from a very low number, the lowest its been this year was 121 and its now

Ok so go back 32 days from July 19th to the 17th of June and double the case numbers that day twice.

Then try it with that day's 7 day average.

If the doubling rate doesn't speed up between now and then the detected daily new cases on July 19th will be in that range.

But it's jiggering about a bit, and has always previously sped up.

I had a bold fail on my last two posts where I couldn't quote. Apologies.

The posts I'm quoting are the top bit and my comments are at the bottom if that's not clear.

I have to say yes there would be a lag but how long would you expect that to be?

Looking at the previous waves hospitialisations peak was 10 days after the cases peak - even allowing for a longer lag you would have thought it would start to be seen more dramatically now if it was going to

@Quartz2208

I have to say yes there would be a lag but how long would you expect that to be?

Looking at the previous waves hospitialisations peak was 10 days after the cases peak - even allowing for a longer lag you would have thought it would start to be seen more dramatically now if it was going to

New variant new ball game, plus our current level of restrictions and a partly vaccinated population?

Who knows?

After April 17th there was about a five or six week period before the cases began doubling. If that pattern were to hold for hospitalisations we would start to see it in the next couple of weeks. Hospital admissions are already trending upwards on any graph I've seen

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

*Yeah. A functional Test Trace and isolate system what I recommend every time somebody asks me what I would do differently. (And coherent non-farcical border policy and quarantine.)

In some countries that's all they've got.

And they're doing better than us.

Problem is our cases are too high to create a functional T&T system. The only way it’s possible at this point is to get cases falling so we can get one in place. But it won’t happen, because the government won’t point that out and even if they did they’d have to try again and answer why we are doing it now and not a year ago.

Yeah.

The failure of our government to get the absolute basics of infection control right is how I know this will go on and on.

What’s frustrating is I don’t see any evidence that they are learning lessons.

There seems to be some sort of task force for dealing with the next pandemic. Might be a good idea if we tasked it with learning the lessons and applying it to this one.

The one thing I hope - and I appreciate its difficult- but if there are still some things that have to stay in place they are advisory and clear .

So for example - advisory - wear masks on public transport
Advisory - sanitise hands and wear masks when going to hospitals ( a high percentage of cases were caught in hospital)
Advisory - keep hospital visitor numbers low ( not banned but not a free for all )

So we all know the rules but can chose to protect ourselves and others if we want to .

@NannyAndJohn

~16000 daily cases and a doubling time of ~12 days.

Do the maths.

Where are you getting the 12 day doubling time? There was a 47.9% increase over the last week (Using the 7 days average thing), this gives a more than 14 day doubling time. (Looking at the actual.numbers gave 16days a couple days ago).

Anyway aren't we supposed to be at 100000 cases/day by your calculations at this point? Oh I forgot "noise".

Do the doom monger sock puppets on the covid board know how obvious they are?

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

What’s frustrating is I don’t see any evidence that they are learning lessons.

There seems to be some sort of task force for dealing with the next pandemic. Might be a good idea if we tasked it with learning the lessons and applying it to this one.

When I read in The Telegraph that the plan for future global pandemics hinges on fast action, suppression, vaccines and eradication my main thought was

"So does this one!"

Ok so go back 32 days from July 19th to the 17th of June and double the case numbers that day twice.

Then try it with that day's 7 day average.

If the doubling rate doesn't speed up between now and then the detected daily new cases on July 19th will be in that range.

But it's jiggering about a bit, and has always previously sped up*

Ok so cases on 17th June were...
10779, so that would give 43116 cases if it were 2 doubling times, still way way below the 81000 at the peak, so no highest numbers ever seen.

Plus as I'm sure you have noticed the doubling time has actual been lengthening rather than shortening. Take a look at the graph, it's a lot flatter than previous peaks.

I’m going to bookmark this thread to come back to on 19th July and see if the figures are ‘the highest we’ve ever seen’

What a load of crap.

@Whatever9999

Current 7 day average = 12930.

7 day average a week ago = 8740.

Doubling time in weeks = 1/log2(12930/8740) = 1.77 = 12.4 days.

It really doesn't matter if the hospitalizations and deaths completely disappear---the Zero Covidians' attention will merely shift to case numbers and Long Covid (real or imaginary). And to be honest, if case numbers were to drop to zero, the next story would be that "new mutations have evolved which are evading the test, and are spreading silently in the population!"

etc. etc.

@Whatever9999

* Ok so go back 32 days from July 19th to the 17th of June and double the case numbers that day twice.

Then try it with that day's 7 day average.

If the doubling rate doesn't speed up between now and then the detected daily new cases on July 19th will be in that range.

But it's jiggering about a bit, and has always previously sped up*

Ok so cases on 17th June were...
10779, so that would give 43116 cases if it were 2 doubling times, still way way below the 81000 at the peak, so no highest numbers ever seen.

Plus as I'm sure you have noticed the doubling time has actual been lengthening rather than shortening. Take a look at the graph, it's a lot flatter than previous peaks.

Like I said, it will probably be a week or two after July 19th that we actually get there - unless the doubling time speeds up.

What happens if you double one more time?

@Rosehip10

Do the doom monger sock puppets on the covid board know how obvious they are?

You should report anyone you think is a sock puppet.

It's against the rules to have more than one account I believe.

@Whatever9999

* Ok so go back 32 days from July 19th to the 17th of June and double the case numbers that day twice.

Then try it with that day's 7 day average.

If the doubling rate doesn't speed up between now and then the detected daily new cases on July 19th will be in that range.

But it's jiggering about a bit, and has always previously sped up*

Ok so cases on 17th June were...
10779, so that would give 43116 cases if it were 2 doubling times, still way way below the 81000 at the peak, so no highest numbers ever seen.

Plus as I'm sure you have noticed the doubling time has actual been lengthening rather than shortening. Take a look at the graph, it's a lot flatter than previous peaks.

Also, when was the 81,000 peak?

@Delatron

I’m going to bookmark this thread to come back to on 19th July and see if the figures are ‘the highest we’ve ever seen’

What a load of crap.

Do.

We've had about three doublings since the last lowest point at the beginning of May.

Another three doublings would take us into unprecedented detected daily case numbers.

And I think the doubling is speeding up.

So the next three doublings will take less time.

So I really am interested to know what the long term answer is.

For a lot of the measures that have been mentioned and are apparently needed to stay on top of the virus, we will be relying on two things, Government competence and public compliance.

Both of these things are in short supply for a huge number of reasons which have been stated many times.

If the Government won’t do what is needed and more and more people refuse to comply with the restrictions that are in place. Realistically where does that actually leave us?

You need both Government action and public compliance. Nothing will get done without BOTH those things.

Whatever9999 cases reached " higher than they've ever been" in Scotland this week.

@Perihelion

Whatever9999 cases reached " higher than they've ever been" in Scotland this week.

And in "covid spread is driven by schools" theory that puts Scotland about two weeks ahead of England because of different term dates. (I think schools in Scotland went back two weeks before schools in England.)