How come US have such low Covid cases...

[Mimosafortea]

US aren’t really distancing anymore are they...?
I have a friend who lives there and says her life
is pretty much back to normal.

How come? Why are the cases rising again in the UK?

Are we ever honestly going to go back to living
normally?

If the Kent variant is the dominant variant (and many states like Florida didn’t lock down to suppress this) would that stop the Delta variant taking hold more?

Does anyone with more of a science background understand how different variants become dominant? I know the Delta is more transmissible so will it eventually be the dominant one or not necessarily?

What I’m trying to work out Is if by locking down and driving the Alpha variant numbers right down. The minute we opened up the Delta variant could take off?

It feels like we are the best at sequencing and coincidentally (or not) seem to be the country having the most issues with variants.

You can argue it’s our lax border controls but I know that in Europe for example, Germans were heading off to Majorca etc etc. Are the whole of Europe’s borders closed?

Because they aren’t obsessed with testing and searching desperately for cases! We are doing over a million tests a day it’s beyond a joke!

Delta is taking root in US- they will follow our lead eventually

@loulouljh

They ae probably not testing manically like we are...

This seems the most likely.

Anyone know if the ZOE app still advises to get tests for almost everything?

Stubbed my toe.....

ZOE: Get a test

We only have 64 identified Delta cases in our State, it will get worse again I suspect.

@Delatron

If the Kent variant is the dominant variant (and many states like Florida didn’t lock down to suppress this) would that stop the Delta variant taking hold more?

Does anyone with more of a science background understand how different variants become dominant? I know the Delta is more transmissible so will it eventually be the dominant one or not necessarily?

What I’m trying to work out Is if by locking down and driving the Alpha variant numbers right down. The minute we opened up the Delta variant could take off?

Delta is more transmissable than Alpha - considerably so. A more transmissable virus will always outcompete a lesser one which is why Delta has taken over from Alpha in the UK.

If another variant comes along that is more transmissable than Delta, then IT will become the dominant strain instead.

Vaccines play a part here too because the more a variant is resistant to existing immunity, the more easily it can spread.

In the UK, there's going to be lots of variants springing up that have increased immunity resistance, i.e. can bypass vaccine protection - the BIG question is whether any of these will be more infectious than Delta... if not, then we'll never know about them.

@shouldistop

Well we're testing people regularly with no symptoms (which is a bit bonkers in my opinion)

Why would anyone think having more knowledge about the spread of a disease is bonkers?

I am sick to the back teeth of this, but can't for the life of me work out why it would be a bad thing to test the daylights out of everyone. It's not like it's giving us higher numbers, just more accurate ones.

I am baffled as to who these patients are though! Are they all in their teens and twenties?

Thanks @strangeshapedpotato

So the assumption is that all the other countries where the Delta has seeded are a few weeks behind us unless they’ve done well with vaccinations?

If not though? What would be the reason?

Because everyone who believes COVID is real has been vaccinated thanks to low demand. Everyone else won’t get tested even if they feel unwell. No track or trace systems, so they just spread it. Bloody nightmare.

Grandson saw GP for tonsillitis. GP told the whole family to get tested just incase

@dreamingbohemian

Where my family live (New York) anyone can get vaccinated down the pub, you get a free beer after

I know some parts of the country are anti vaxx but I think the biggest population centers are not, they're mostly ahead of Europe in getting the vaccine out to everyone

Where is your data coming from, according to any stats that I can find the US is behind the UK in %age fully vaccinated

news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-GB&mid=%2Fm%2F09c7w0&state=7&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen

From my experience... and I can't speak for the whole of the US.

Schools went back carefully, with masks, distancing, and extra ventilation. Cases in schools were very low. There wasn't a huge hurry to get schools back because hybrid/online learning went well.

Ditto universities.

Reopening gradually seemed to help. In my state we reopened stage by stage, county by county. We didn't open bars till very last, because pissed people aren't going to socially distance.

Everyone over 12 who wants a vaccine has had the chance to get both shots. Today I drove past a brewery that had a vaccination clinic in it, the supermarket was offering walk-in vaccinations, you can call up your GP and get a vaccination on the spot.

The UK is seeing a surge, but that's partly due to having recently reopened. Most of the US has only had limited restrictions for the last year, so we've already gone through those post-lockdown surges.

We've had very easy access to testing - no strict rules about only being allowed to test if you have 3 particular symptoms. If you're at school and you have symptoms you just go to the school nurse and get a test. We do things like mass testing after school vacations.

We've been offering no-symptom tests for ages. Mostly we use the Abbot BinaxNow tests which seem to be fairly reliable and give a result in 15 minutes. I've tested hundreds of people using them.

We had a track and trace system in place but no longer require it. It's there if we need it again.

I really do think the UK will be there soon. Just need to get as many people as possible double vaxxed. Life will be back to normal.

I don’t understand Florida though. They didn’t open up gradually did they? Just ditched most restrictions last summer? And with an older population.

@Delatron

I don’t understand Florida though. They didn’t open up gradually did they? Just ditched most restrictions last summer? And with an older population.

They had a lot of cases! DH had to start going there again recently for work, and he insisted on not travelling there until he'd had his first Moderna.

The older population there were generally very very careful. Some of my neighbours winter there, and they made sure to get vaccinated ASAP, and didn't really go anywhere.

Where is your data coming from, according to any stats that I can find the US is behind the UK in %age fully vaccinated

It's more localised in the US. Some states have 80% of adults vaccinated, some have 40%.

Ah ok @ZZTopGuitarSolo yes I heard they had a lot of cases initially when they opened up last summer. But then avoided subsequent peaks?

It would make sense if the older population protected themselves and were very careful. It does sit with the strategy of allowing people to make their own choices though I guess.

We will start to see how the US are doing with the delta variant in the next week or two. Cases are around 21% down on the past 14-day average, but news outlets are reporting 16% up on the past 7-day average. So check in again in a couple of weeks.

@ZZTopGuitarSolo While you may have had track and trace locally, there isn’t a federal effort. I had the misfortune to visit Texas on several occasions during this pandemic, and it was like a brush with death. The general response in the US has been ludicrously poor!

@Delatron

Are the whole of Europe’s borders closed?

No, but it varies and is fast changing...

www.politico.eu/article/faq-how-to-travel-in-europe-this-summer-coronavirus-restrictions-digital-covid-certificate/

Any travel will let in variants so they will be there

But maybe slower spread

USA wore masks outside.

They're vaccinating children (over 12).

Schools have been closed since last year and/or hybrid learning in many states.

America has pandemic border control. Entry is restricted from high risk countries like the UK.

@Delatron

Thanks *@strangeshapedpotato*

So the assumption is that all the other countries where the Delta has seeded are a few weeks behind us unless they’ve done well with vaccinations?

If not though? What would be the reason?

Well the picture is yet incomplete.

We seeded the Delta variant directly into numerous low income communities across the UK - I'm not sure any other Western nation has done that. So that will have given it a huge head start here.

The spread in the UK is mainly in the 5-12 and 18-24 age groups iirc, so schools are playing a big part (not sure where in particular the young adult spread is occurring). but if a country's schools are shut and they have a good level of vaccination, Delta may not be able to spread very efficiently.

I've just looked up Florida which is in a similar spot re infection numbers as we were in May, AND they have some Delta cases, but their schools have finished for the year!

It's easy to stand on the outside and say, look they are open for business and we're not - why? But if you look more closely, almost everywhere in the world has some level of restrictions and/or sociological settings that affect covid infection rates.

We have more people vaccinated (first and second doses) that the US but in older age groups. This means that our deaths are lower but cases higher because it’s spreading in younger people at the moment. This won’t be the case forever though as we are now moving on to everyone over 18. However, I think we should reduce this to 16+ ASAP.