Will cases go back down

[RosieLemonade]

I apologise. I am not very smart about these things. Obviously cases are rising. Will they keep rising but we won't be affected as much because of the vaccines. Or will they get to a certain point and stay at that point? Or will the government do something so they go down again?

I think the expectation is that for the time being they will continue to rise, but as more people are vaccinated it should plateau and then decrease.

At this point it is hospital data which is more important though - again the more people fully vaccinated the less people we should see ending in hospital

If you believe that vaccines are doing the job they’re meant to do then they might go down and will almost certainly level off. If they don’t then the government may have no choice but to intervene.

We have reason to be optimistic looking at places like Israel and New York but it’s important to remember we’ve used a lot of Az which they haven’t so we’re very much in new territory I think. Happy to be corrected on that but I don’t think there’s much data yet on a comparable population for Az.

I agree we need to be optimistic. My neighbour is a consultant at a large hospital and he said they only have 4 patients in critical care. Unfortunately they have a large number of younger people in hospital needing covid treatment (oxygen) but nothing like it was. Hopefully when the younger people are vaccinated we will be in a much better place.

I thought they had just said that 2 doses of Pfizer is 96% effective against Delta and 2 of AZ is 92%?

I remember being pleasantly surprised about AZ as had previously read a much lower efficacy for it.

Cases are predicted to peak in 10-14 days, so yes, they will go back down.

Bolton and Blackburn & Darwen where the delta spread started have already started dropping, it looks like they’re over their ‘peak’ hopefully this will be replicated in the areas where it’s creeping up in Yorkshire at the moment.

@Marguerite2000

Cases are predicted to peak in 10-14 days, so yes, they will go back down.

Who has predicted this?

I heard the peak was predicted for August.

Previously the government has always stopped cases climbing and created a much lower peak than we would otherwise have had with a lockdown.

This time they're hoping vaccines do that job.

But with only 45.9% of the population fully vaccinated, plus another 17.3% who've had a first dose - it's probably an over optimistic hope.

Cases will slow a bit in a month or so when the schools break up, but I can't imagine what would cause us to be past the peak in two weeks.