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Another Christmas lockdown?

105 replies

MercyBooth · 16/06/2021 23:42

Details in link to tweet. (i cant do screenshots) They can sit and swivel on a rusty spike if they think im doing another Christmas lockdown. Are they trying to sabotage the autumn booster uptake? Because i can see some not bothering if they go ahead with this.

Welcome to Narnia. Where we get winter but no Christmas!!!

twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405056295766528001?s=20

OP posts:
CeCePlus · 17/06/2021 12:01

I just heard infections are 'spreading rapidly' 🤷‍♀️

Hamilbamil · 17/06/2021 12:08

At the height of the pandemic last year a 70yo female with diabetes, COPD, and epilepsy, had a risk of death from Covid of 0.3298%.

I know death rates can be overplayed, and the risk of death is tiny for most, but given that the death rate is 0.2-0.3% in many countries for the entire population, and that's with suppression measures in place meaning that many didn't contract it, and the rate would be a lot higher still if no measures were taken, such a low risk doesn't seem credible for such a cocktail of age and conditions.

Are you sure the rate doesn't factor in the chance of actually contracting Covid. For instance, if the chance of getting Covid last December was 10% (that's just a bit of a guess) then the chances of death if caught would
be 3%. 3% x 10% = 0.3%

PinkSparklyPussyCat · 17/06/2021 12:14

@traumatisednoodle

I absolutely won't be following any restrictions regarding household mixing at Christmas. They can say what they want

An awful lot of people who mixed last christmas ended up with corona virus, some of them were admitted to hospital and some of those died. If rates are as high this december as they were then. Then not mixing is the sensible action (particularly with older family members blah, blah, blah). Why would you endanger your loved ones ? Yes vaccines exist, they are not 100% also
a) Oxford works less well than pfzeir
b) The older and sicker you are the less well the vaccine "takes"
LFTs are only about 50%

What it the 'loved ones' think it's worth the risk? Perhaps some people don't want to carry on living like this and would rather take the risk of seeing family. Maybe some older people don't want to spend their later years cut off from everyone, I know DM wouldn't have coped and I would have let her make her own choices.
RedToothBrush · 17/06/2021 12:15

Honestly I think we are likely to see some restrictions over winter.

However I would put money on them not being put in place until 2nd January.

RedToothBrush · 17/06/2021 12:20

@CeCePlus

I just heard infections are 'spreading rapidly' 🤷‍♀️
New data apparently is more encouraging.

Bolton has peaked and Blackburn which was following Bolton seems to be doing better. And it sounds like other hotspots also are looking less concerning.

Basically they think that the level of vaccinations is starting to kick in and give sufficient community immunity.

winched · 17/06/2021 13:03

@Hamilbamil yes sorry I included it in the rest of my post but not that initial figure. They would indeed have to catch it to die from it.

She's the sort of person who follows the rules and only the actual rules, though. Back at the bingo with her pals before my kids were allowed back in School. Holidaying in a 'covid hotspot' last year the moment she was able to. Happy to get vaccinated but sees it as doing her part for society.

My point is basically to illustrate that 'the elderly' are not one monolith who think the same. They do not all think catching covid = instant death and some are just as capable of assessing risk as those delivery drivers, childcare / shop workers / police officers etc who had no choice but to expose themselves every day. Two of those professions no SD and no masks.

We've discussed it at length (particularly at the start when I was freaked by Italy footage / stories of 'a billion' phone numbers going dark in China and confiscated her car to stop her just popping out for milk when she could open a dairy farm).

She maintains if she's going to die then in her bed with the 'old man's best friend' pneumonia is the way to do it and when you read about how peaceful it is, I agree with her. It's how I'd want to go.

Not everyone will agree and I believe they should have every right to miss Christmas. But people should have the right to have it now we have vaccines and it's unlikely to get any better until the entire world is vaccinated (which many might not even see).

LostThings · 17/06/2021 13:14

Ahh, but we'll all need a booster by then ...

LostThings · 17/06/2021 13:15

There was supposed to be a quote above my comment but I messed it up. Oh never mind ...

Carameljack · 17/06/2021 13:18

We’re already used to hearing how full the hospitals are every winter prior to covid. Add in covid and we obviously have a problem. We either have restrictions in winter (more to suppress flu as happened this year) or we all pay more tax and fund the hospitals properly. The second option is clearly the more reasonable option but will they do it??

BeachSunsets · 17/06/2021 13:25

Don’t try to second guess. It’ll just stress you out.

Flaxmeadow · 17/06/2021 13:40

Yes its starting to level out a bit now in very high areas like Blackburn and Bolton. Less dark purple/purple neighbourhoods for them on the Govt interactive map

MercyBooth · 17/06/2021 14:42

uote | See allJennyfromtheculdesac Thu 17-Jun-21 07:40:33
What Christmas lockdown was there last year? A polite or not so polite request nothing else

London and Essex went into tier 4 on 19th December, Hello?????? Do you not remember the way France reacted and the ensuing chaos of the lorries in Kent? Honestly this kind of gaslighting and rewriting of history really fucks me off. Do people really expect compliance if history will be rewritten and these events will be denied with "what lockdown nothing happened"

OP posts:
MercyBooth · 17/06/2021 15:03

do wonder how many in the terrible January numbers had been pressured into Xmas dinner etc by others

This is another big favourite of mine. The tweaking of the incubation period. 3rd Jan when Boris announced the winter lockdown (though tier 4 was lockdown in all but name) is NINE days after Christmas Day. So its nine days from the infection to hospitialisaton to showing up on the figures. I thought it was longer than that. Or is the incubation period to cases showing up only count when ppl commit the cardinal sin of wanting to see their families...............oh but wait WAIT i thought there was always a LAG in the figures when there are bank holidays. So Christmas Day was a Friday Boxing Day was a Saturday and because BD fell on a weekend 28 Dec was a BH Monday. So how come it was NINE days from infection to hospitilisation and figures were available on 3rd Jan yet when its any other BH throught the year and the figures are low on a BH Monday its because of the BH and there is a lag

OP posts:
traumatisednoodle · 17/06/2021 15:25

Is it just the loved ones we can't endanger? Or does this idea of 'sensible' extend to the shop workers stocking the shelves for your dinner, the delivery drivers bringing your presents, the police officers making sure nobody steals them, and the magic money fairies sprinkling magic money they grew on magic trees all over the magic country's magical economy?

You are most likely (by far) to catch Covid from a house hold contact. Shop workers, police etc generally have much shorter contacts, also they wear masks. Very few people will either wear masks or distance at Christmas Dinner.

Covid death is horrible.

MercyBooth · 17/06/2021 15:26

@Geamhradh This is from the same twitter account

twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405412392507305987?s=20
NEW: The govt suppressed access to sick pay for people isolating at the height of the pandemic, emails between senior civil servants reveal

Treasury instructed officials to conceal from the public how the furlough scheme could help those isolating (screenshot in link)

Pointing out how people couldnt access sick pay to isolate. How very far right of him!!

OP posts:
MercyBooth · 17/06/2021 15:28

I KNOW right @traumatisednoodle Meanwhile other deaths are all flowers and rainbows.

OP posts:
PrincessNutNuts · 17/06/2021 15:36

Remember the original plan from 2020?

80% of us would get it, 20% would go to hospital. And 1% would sadly die?

The plan was to let us all catch covid, have a three week lockdown in June 2020, then let it spread again, relying on the increasing numbers of us who are a) immune or b) dead to bend the curve and let the disease die out?

Well I think we're back to that plan.

Only with heavy reliance on vaccines to change the ratio of cases to hospitalisations so the government can allow more cases. ( (Hospitalisations look like around 5% of cases currently)

The government's determination to avoid a lockdown at all costs has so far resulted in 3 lockdowns. So another isn't exactly unlikely.

3cats4poniesandababy · 17/06/2021 15:41

They can f off on another lockdown. Well they can do one but I am going to keep seeing my friends and family. I am at the point where quality over quantity of life please.

If people want to lock themselves up in their houses because of covid crack on. Meanwhile I will be popping round, with a bottle, to my friends.

The cost of lockdowns is too high - the impact on education, mental health, the economy. It is far far too high

TheKeatingFive · 17/06/2021 15:42

Meanwhile other deaths are all flowers and rainbows.

Exactly. I have always found this argument extraordinary and can only conclude that many of the people most terrified of COVID haven’t encountered a lot of deaths. I had relatives die of heart disease and cancer and both were appalling experiences.

Most deaths are awful. If you die peacefully in your sleep you’ve hit the jackpot.

looptheloopinahulahoop · 17/06/2021 15:47

Why on earth would we need a Chirstmas lockdown? Everyone who wants to be will have been vaccinated by then and no doubt the elderly and most vulnerable would have had boosters too.

At worst we'll still need masks indoors.

So much scaremongering on here.

looptheloopinahulahoop · 17/06/2021 15:48

Christmas

MN - we still need an edit button

3cats4poniesandababy · 17/06/2021 15:54

@Carameljack Surely we don't necessarily need full lockdown. But similar rules as covid for flu - have symptoms stay at home. They should goa good way to suppressing spread if flu and covid.

I have no problem with paying more as long as we get more service. I have been treated in the NHS in the past year and it was shoddy and substandard. If I pay more in tax there needs so be a noticeable difference in standards. I can think of multiple times when I have received shocking NHS service dating back to 2006 so not exactly a new problem

Loubellbell · 17/06/2021 15:56

@looptheloopinahulahoop

Why on earth would we need a Chirstmas lockdown? Everyone who wants to be will have been vaccinated by then and no doubt the elderly and most vulnerable would have had boosters too.

At worst we'll still need masks indoors.

So much scaremongering on here.

I know right I am done with all this my anxiety sky high
Backofbeyond50 · 17/06/2021 16:07

So who are these experts and fo they have a say?
Hardly worth worrying about right now.

Suranjeep · 17/06/2021 16:41

@TableFlowerss

*Everyone who wants the vaccine will have had the opportunity to be double-jabbed by mid-September based on the current roll-out*

Exactly - so why would they possibly need to lockdown at Christmas….

The third "variants" vaccine, they'll start saying the same as what they did for the first one. We must have restrictions until all adults have had the third one