Another Christmas lockdown?

[MercyBooth]

Details in link to tweet. (i cant do screenshots) They can sit and swivel on a rusty spike if they think im doing another Christmas lockdown. Are they trying to sabotage the autumn booster uptake? Because i can see some not bothering if they go ahead with this.

Welcome to Narnia. Where we get winter but no Christmas!!!

twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1405056295766528001?s=20

Bit melodramatic assuming there will be a lockdown over Christmas.

*We definitely were in Essex. Tier 4 was essentially lockdown.

Kent too.*

Yep, and London. No household mixing allowed on Christmas Day.

We went from planning to spend it with family, then deciding not to due to the increasing rates. Then we were all able to isolate for 2 weeks before Christmas (DS's class were sent home due to a positive case and DH and I wfh) so decided to go ahead with the Xmas plans as long as no symptoms appeared in the 2 weeks before. But then it was banned completely so we couldn't go ahead.

@Jennyfromtheculdesac we were in a local lockdown in North East England, from mid September right up to Christmas day when we were allowed to mix for the day, but we only saw our parents for a very short while in their own homes, then into the national lockdown straight from being in a local one.

@HelloMissus

Well the great and the good of MN will be pleased. They treat driving up the M1 to eat a roast dinner with family akin to the Greek Odyssey.

@newnortherner111
What Christmas lockdown was there last year? A polite or not so polite request nothing else

Christmas Timetable for Somerset.

Tier 2: 2nd - 25th December 2020.
Tier 3: 26th - 30th December 2020
Tier 4: 31st December - 5th January
3rd Lockdown: 6th January.

Ramping up anxiety over the entire period with rising tiers every few days.

From Johnson saying "cancelling Christmas would be inhuman" to then cancelling Christmas on the 19th December, when the government "plan" for families to be able to mix for 5 days, was cancelled for all tier 4 areas and allowed for Christmas Day only for tier 1-3 with no tier 4 people allowed.

Even last week Johnson was saying he could see no reason, from the data, to cancel 21st June "Freedom Day", to (after drip, drip, drip via the press) cancelling 21st June ending of restrictions.

Now we are awaiting so-called "Terminus" date on the 19th July.
And already, drip, drip to the press has started - hints that mask wearing might continue, people will be encouraged to work from home (nice for those with big homes and gardens, until they decide to offshore those jobs to low cost countries), etc etc.

Yes, @MercyBooth, you are right. They will probably start in September.

Also, I see that now "The Science" has decided all these perspex screens that businesses have spent £££££s installing may a bad idea. You really couldn't make it up.

I've though all along that it would be a good idea to continue to require masks on public transport and in healthcare settings

I expect the 'data not dates' to continue to be the over-riding principle.

And we really don't know what the epsilon and zeta variants will be like or where they will crop up

You lost me at the Alex Breitbart Wickham link tbh.

But, while the anti-vaxxers continue spreading their misinformation (you only have to look on here to see the batsignal goes out if the V word is mentioned) where once the anti-maskers held sway, then yes, there probably are going to have to be further restrictions later in the year.

It's interesting to note that where only about a month ago the UK was being held up as a shining example, other countries are yet again shaking their heads at the ineptitude of the govt, and the stubborn stupidity of the masses.

It's a joke and an utter disgrace.

On average around 30,000 have died each year to the flu. These deaths would have been prevented if we locked up the country but we've never batted an eye lid. The thought of restricting 68 million people for a small percentage would have been laughed at.
Now it's a possibility.

When the time comes this winter, we must not comply.

@newnortherner111

What Christmas lockdown was there last year? A polite or not so polite request nothing else.

I expect face coverings on public transport and in shops may return, and perhaps table service in pubs or some restrictions on very large gatherings, but no more.

Return? They haven't gone.

The xmas lockdown was put in law on 19Th Dec?

@SonnetForSpring

Bit melodramatic assuming there will be a lockdown over Christmas.

I'd call it evidence based analysis.

You don't see much of that these days.

Six months is a long time in terms of covid, a lot can change, so I'm not going to worry about it for now. I'll just do whatever is required and make the most of it.

@MrsHastingslikethebattle

It's a joke and an utter disgrace.

On average around 30,000 have died each year to the flu. These deaths would have been prevented if we locked up the country but we've never batted an eye lid. The thought of restricting 68 million people for a small percentage would have been laughed at.
Now it's a possibility.

When the time comes this winter, we must not comply.

You know that 130,000 is a lot more than 30,000 right? And that the figure is only that ‘low’ because of the lockdowns and restrictions?

‘Some restrictions’ from an unknown source somehow = Christmas lockdown….

There’s a lack of critical thinking here sometimes.

It doesn't even mention lockdown.........

It will be mask wearing, testing, isolation etc

It doesn't really matter what restrictions are brought in or not. I am sure the vast majority of us wouldn't want to put our parents or grandparents at risk. We will know a lot more about the protection from vaccines by December and hopefully it will allow us to mix without issue.

If you know a vulnerable person who has chosen to not be vaccinated- well I think it may be a whe before you can freely mix again without worrying about their risk.

@traumatisednoodle

I absolutely won't be following any restrictions regarding household mixing at Christmas. They can say what they want

An awful lot of people who mixed last christmas ended up with corona virus, some of them were admitted to hospital and some of those died. If rates are as high this december as they were then. Then not mixing is the sensible action (particularly with older family members blah, blah, blah). Why would you endanger your loved ones ? Yes vaccines exist, they are not 100% also
a) Oxford works less well than pfzeir
b) The older and sicker you are the less well the vaccine "takes"
LFTs are only about 50%

Because the continuing effects of enforcing social isolation will be causing far more deaths than Covid will. Nice try with your attempts at emotional manipulation, it doesn’t wash with me. As I have said elsewhere, I am fully vaccinated and tested weekly at least. I am not putting anyone at risk. Plus it is for my relatives to decide if they wish to see me not the Government and certainly not a stranger on the internet. They are perfectly capable of risk assessing for themselves without being patronised. Thankfully I think when people see places like America living normally then most people will stand against any attempt at further lockdowns and the Government will no longer have public support.

An awful lot of people who mixed last christmas ended up with corona virus, some of them were admitted to hospital and some of those died. If rates are as high this december as they were then. Then not mixing is the sensible action (particularly with older family members blah, blah, blah). Why would you endanger your loved ones ?

Exactly, on the 6th of January the daily infection number was over 62,000
On the 20th of January the daily death number was over 1,800

I do wonder how many in the terrible January numbers had been pressured into Xmas dinner etc by others.

What I don’t understand is, if this comes to fruition, will this be the new normal forever more?

I can understand postponing the next few weeks (I don’t like it but…) that is surely the end of it?

Originally it was when the vulnerable were vaccinated, now it’s all adults. The problem is, like the flu, the virus mutates and every year they have to tweak the vaccine.

Only vulnerable are offered the flu vaccine though and that’s how it’s fine. Obviously with covid, they want everyone vaccinated, so what happens each year? Does everyone have to have the vaccine year on year?

How will the cope doing that, clearly it’s taken months so far….

Will we be locked away all winter until everyone has had the jab?

An awful lot of people who mixed last christmas ended up with corona virus, some of them were admitted to hospital and some of those died. If rates are as high this december as they were then. Then not mixing is the sensible action (particularly with older family members blah, blah, blah). Why would you endanger your loved ones ? Yes vaccines exist, they are not 100% also

Based on what you're argument, vaccines are pretty pointless if they make no difference to whether we lock down or not. If rates do happen to be as high in December as they were last year, Covid hospitalisations should be around 5% of last year's level based on Pfizer and AZ efficiency. The NHS should be able to cope with that.

Also, vaccines are effective at reducing transmission despite some of the misinformation from anti-vaxxers (who seem to want to translate "doesn't stop transmission completely" into "doesn't stop transmission at all" so with the 90% or so of adults vaccinated (and probably many teenagers too by then) the potential for levels to rocket up is suppressed.

Of course, we may have a super deadly vaccine evasive strain spreading havoc which changes the game entirely, but there's no point doom-mongering about that.

@TableFlowerss

Will we be locked away all winter until everyone has had the jab?

Everyone who wants the vaccine will have had the opportunity to be double-jabbed by mid-September based on the current roll-out.

Everyone who wants the vaccine will have had the opportunity to be double-jabbed by mid-September based on the current roll-out

Exactly - so why would they possibly need to lockdown at Christmas….

@Jennyfromtheculdesac

Jesus. It’s like half the people on this thread haven’t even heard of the vaccine programme.

Rates are mainly rising in the unvaccinated population.

^ This

The vaccines work. They are very effective.

The over 50s and CEV amounted to 99% of Covid deaths pre-vaccine. Now double-vaccinated (which is largely this group) amount to about 30% of deaths.

That doesn't mean that deaths will reduce by 69%, it means deaths are drastically lower than they otherwise would be. The maths gets complicated, but I estimate deaths would be about 10 times higher without than current levels had the vaccinations not been rolled out.

All just rumour and speculation currently...

Was listening to a podcast yesterday in which they quoted a "senior Whitehall source" re the possibility of having to lockdown due to flu this winter as we all have buggered up immune systems.

If rates are as high this december as they were then. Then not mixing is the sensible action (particularly with older family members blah, blah, blah). Why would you endanger your loved ones ?

Because my loved one couldn't give a hoot about 'endangering themselves' and aren't going to spend another Christmas alone when it could be their last?

At the height of the pandemic last year a 70yo female with diabetes, COPD, and epilepsy, had a risk of death from Covid of 0.3298%.
(Pre-vaccine - UofO risk calculator)

Between the ages of 65 and 74, your risk of death in the next year in the UK is 1.5385%.

Factor in some vaccines and...? There is statistically more chance of her missing Christmas and dying in 2022 after two Christmases in isolation, than seeing family, catching and dying of Covid. Even more so if I added some underlying conditions in the example, which she doesn't actually have.

Am I just to... ignore her wants? Does her wellbeing not matter? Does everything pale in comparison to the 0.3% risk of her catching covid and dying? Does she have any human rights anymore?

Is it just the loved ones we can't endanger? Or does this idea of 'sensible' extend to the shop workers stocking the shelves for your dinner, the delivery drivers bringing your presents, the police officers making sure nobody steals them, and the magic money fairies sprinkling magic money they grew on magic trees all over the magic country's magical economy?

Read today the infections are stalling. I genuinely think things will get back to normal by July.