The next 4 weeks are about preparing us for ‘living with covid’

[solarlights]

There’s been so much scaremongering and manipulation so far during this pandemic - rightly or wrongly. But now I get the distinct impression that the tide is about to turn and over the next 4 weeks we are going to be braced for living with coronavirus and everything that entails including the fact there will still be significant numbers of deaths and some people will get long covid. I think we’ll be told having the vaccination is our only protection and after that we need to get on with it and accept the risk. Social distancing is not a viable option long term and neither is 10 days of isolation. Be interesting to see what unravels in the media over the next month.

I hope the 10day isolation for contacts can stop. It would make a huge difference.

I think the next 4 weeks are about kicking the can down the road a bit. The government don’t really want to admit that increasing some more restrictions over the summer is more likely than not. I doesn’t look good if they announce that on ‘freedom day’ though.

I did hope wonder whether this was more about deprogramming those who were too successfully controlled by project fear in order to ensure a susscceful reopening and prevent unrest. Certainly it's been clear that this will be necessary in countries which cannot accept even one case, let alone one death (e.g. NZ, OZ) - an enormous narrative and psychological shift will be required there in order to open for business again.

I do hope this is it, rather than "they don't really need that freedom, why give it back".

I hope you’re right op, I really do. I’ve been the most optimistic person ever throughout this, but I’m really starting to think that the doom merchants might be right about restrictions lasting for ever.

we have to live with it. we have to be prepared for people to die?

Next four weeks also gets us to the school hols.

Rates among late primary to secondary are relatively high and it avoids unleashing more into the population through anywhere where there's some limited access currently.

Also allows more over 40s to get second jab thus protecting nhs more. Eg best immunity reached with AZ two weeks after the second. Possibly less chance of long Covid? 🤷🏻‍♀️ women around that age most likely to have issues with that.

After school hols starts children aren't both going out and about and also going to school.

what are they doing in the rest of europe?

They don’t need to deprogrammed people who live in countries where there are no cases. What rubbish. Those simple have been living a much more normal life than we have for a year. There’s no masks, no distancing, mass events are taking place, theatres and nightclubs are open at full capacity, education hasn’t been massively disrupted. Travel and tourism tends to be an issue, but they can offer travel abroad to similarly low covid countries with much more freedom than we can here. And with vaccination picking up pace rapidly in those countries and many others the list of countries that are available for travel will be increasing.

They are very much a long way from ‘living in fear’ however much it might suit the narrative of some.

I think certain restrictions might last for a long time, and I agree that also those who are bellowing about zero covid and never going out again and even double vaccination does not work are going to be forced to realise that life is going to have to resume whether they like it or not.

we either are amazing at testing, but we have more cases than the rest of europe

Someone on the news this morning (expert, not commentator or person in streets) said that they needed to use these 4 weeks to put in place a system whereby people with 2 vaccines and a negative test did not have to isolate. That would make a huge difference to the economy (and education for older students 16+ until they vaccinate younger).

I agree. You can't go from quite draconian measures to 'freedom' in one day. And the government are pretty much alone in not vaccinating over 12s at the moment, and not recognising that fully vaccinated people need to be treated differently unless the science is to totally ignored (plus anyone medically exempt, for the sake of equality and ethics). It makes no scientific sense to treat an unvaccinated person and a fully vaccinated person the same.

And saying a young person experiences the Delta variant like a cold, but are a huge problem in terms of transmission, but then refusing to start vaccinating them, leaving them doing university courses at home online, making them sit at home for 10 days with no evidence of infection (just in case), also makes no sense. Follow the US and EU and vaccinate those young people and over 12s that want to be vaccinated. The shortage is due to the availability of an appointment for a vaccine ,not the availability of a vaccine.

They don’t need to deprogrammed people who live in countries where there are no cases.

They will have to get those people to accept cases, hospitalisations and deaths. From a starting point of "zero covid", that'll be a bit of a slog.

woke up in tears at it all this morning, it is just all too much now, our old way of life is gone and this is it now , so worried about my children's future

@AbsolutelyPatsy

we have to live with it. we have to be prepared for people to die?

As sad as is it , people die every day from all sorts of things. Cancer, car accidents , suicide etc etc death is a part of life.

yes, car accident death is now more likely in certain age groups.

Another one here who cannot see how we will need an enormous narrative shift because of a Project Fear. There is no Project Fear. We react swiftly to any cases detected and that's kept our numbers incredibly low.

Life's pretty normal where I live, the roll out of the vaccine program is disgracefully delayed but I get my second vaccine tomorrow. Once the majority of the country is vaccinated, borders will be opened, probably case by case and everybody I know is looking forward to that. Project Fear my arse.

I think this depends on what you’ve been paying attention to tbh. The opportunity for zero covid/eradication passed by last year and it’s been accepted for a long time this is with us for good.

It actually doesn’t matter if each and every single one of us get covid, it’s about the rate of illness and consequently hospital resources and if infection/admissions continue to rise at the same rate there’s an issue on the horizon. This has remained true throughout the pandemic.

Four extra weeks of vaccinations are to help slow this growth to a level we can manage not to eradicate. Any gains we made with an early vaccination programme have been severely impacted by the delta variant and the speed at which it transmits.

It'll be things such as hotels with buffet type arrangements for food that will be gone. Certain activities will be more awkward to arrange.
Numbers will be limited to go to events.
More rules.
I went to a beer garden on Sunday, a four year old got up to run about and was told off even though it was a big garden , outside etc and he wasn't near anyone at all! Ridiculous.
It'll be a feast of rules and restrictions because of covid. Or the new variants that will arrive in the summer ( once the big sport events have finished)
This is all here to stay.

There is no Project Fear.

Project fear is the nickname, "Behavioural Science" is the formal term, involving behavioural scientists working closely with the government (similarly to the CMO and CSO) throughout the pandemic.

Here's Susan Mitchie, govt behavioural science advisor, in the BMJ in March 2020.

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/11/slowing-down-the-covid-19-outbreak-changing-behaviour-by-understanding-it/

You are over complicating things. Have you actually looked at the graphs showing the steep rise in cases in the UK compared to nearly every other country in the world? UK has a "world-beating" steep curve up. If only they would have shown that in the press conference graphics . Early data looks promising for not creating severe disease and therefore not overwhelming the healthcare system but they need a few more weeks to get more vaccines in and observe effects. There's really no more complex "deprogramming" going on than that.

This Delta variant is more catching and more severe than previous ones and we have no data yet on what sort of longer term problems it might entail.

Once again some people need reminding that Long Covid is a real thing in younger people and it's not just a bit of a fatigue, it can have very nasty long term consequences. e.g this is from the British Medical Journal review covering people presenting with problems over 6 months of last year. "In individuals at low risk of COVID-19 mortality with ongoing symptoms, 70% have impairment in one or more organs 4 months after initial COVID-19 symptoms, with implications for healthcare and public health, which have assumed low risk in young people with no comorbidities" bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/3/e048391 Even if you live in a world where you shrug your shoulders and say bad luck to those people, you need to understand how this on a large scale will still overwhelm the healthcare system and welfare system in years to come.

@PicsInRed

I did hope wonder whether this was more about deprogramming those who were too successfully controlled by project fear in order to ensure a susscceful reopening and prevent unrest. Certainly it's been clear that this will be necessary in countries which cannot accept even one case, let alone one death (e.g. NZ, OZ) - an enormous narrative and psychological shift will be required there in order to open for business again.

I do hope this is it, rather than "they don't really need that freedom, why give it back".

why would people need to be "deprogrammed" before a successful reopening? (not even going to comment on your choice of words )

BJ is absolutely on the edge of his seat wanting to do his final "unlocking" and the be one to announce freedom day. If all restrictions were lifted the vast majority of people would be happy to take advantage of being able to gather in large groups etc. I'm sure there would be a minority of people who would struggle with this, but it's not like the government particularly prioritises mental health.

Its a good point. Imagine the guidance needed just for e.g. schools alone. I agree that these next 4 weeks will be to increase vaccines and put in place what the country will be like after this date. I think there will be a degree of personal choice and consideration for what we need to do to keep as safe as possible. For some people, that will include wearing masks/sanitising etc - for others, maybe they'll do nothing at all. But as long as those cases stay as low as a bad flu year, lets hope we can move forward. I agree that the main thing I would like to see changed is the isolating of "contacts" in schools - i.e. if a child tests positive asymptomatically on a lateral flow, shouldnt their contacts be able to stay in school if e.g. they test each morning and its negative? I would love testing to get back to those with symptoms only once all teachers etc are fully vaccinated.

The next 4 weeks is to get us to a 'swap' of mixing between social stuff and school stuff. It's also to allow us to get more jabs (first and second) into arms. Maybe then they'll start looking at vacc requirements for some large scale events - can't do it at the moment because not everyone has had the chance to be vaccinated. Unlike in most European countries and the US.

I also think we'll need to accept as a society that up to 50,000 deaths a winter from COVID is 'OK'. It's been OK for some years with flu. Vacc options every winter, take it or leave it, same as flu.

I genuinely don't think we'll be ditching masks or social distancing (through numbers in venues etc) for another year or so. I HATE wearing a mask, and I'm not pro-lockdown.

if a child tests positive asymptomatically on a lateral flow, shouldnt their contacts be able to stay in school if e.g. they test each morning and its negative?

They need a quick test - spit test or something - for younger children, and you don't come to school without a negative. Bit hard to do with LFTs as they are so horrible to do, especially to children.