The next 4 weeks are about preparing us for ‘living with covid’

[solarlights]

There’s been so much scaremongering and manipulation so far during this pandemic - rightly or wrongly. But now I get the distinct impression that the tide is about to turn and over the next 4 weeks we are going to be braced for living with coronavirus and everything that entails including the fact there will still be significant numbers of deaths and some people will get long covid. I think we’ll be told having the vaccination is our only protection and after that we need to get on with it and accept the risk. Social distancing is not a viable option long term and neither is 10 days of isolation. Be interesting to see what unravels in the media over the next month.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

They don’t need to deprogrammed people who live in countries where there are no cases. What rubbish. Those simple have been living a much more normal life than we have for a year. There’s no masks, no distancing, mass events are taking place, theatres and nightclubs are open at full capacity, education hasn’t been massively disrupted. Travel and tourism tends to be an issue, but they can offer travel abroad to similarly low covid countries with much more freedom than we can here. And with vaccination picking up pace rapidly in those countries and many others the list of countries that are available for travel will be increasing.

They are very much a long way from ‘living in fear’ however much it might suit the narrative of some.

Agree

@RedToothBrush do you believe we can live with Covid without some level of restrictions though? You’re always pragmatic so I’d be keen to know what you think.

I just look at the NHS and think there’s no way in its current form, it needs a radical overhaul in order to cope as it is now never mind with the additional burden of Covid and Covid related illness. So far there seems to be barely any discussion around this and it feels like we are sleepwalking into a precarious situation.

@IGotFat

Can anyone help me with this query please?

Yesterday afternoon Sky were reporting that the AZ vaccine was 60% effective after 2 doses against the Delta variant, but at the news briefing later on, Patrick Vallance was going on and on emphasising it was 92% effective, so which is it? I feel that we are being played here

Different figures - different meanings.

The 60% is effectiveness at preventing symptomatic disease (and there's quite a large margin of error with that figure that I can't recall and can't be arsed to look up right now).

The 92% has a huge margin of error associated with it, and it's protection against hospitalisation. The actual results are 75-97%. So it could be as low as 75% effective! Given that the Delta strain is over twice as bad at causing hospitalisations, that would equate with just a 50% reduction in hospitalisations vs unvaccinated with the Kent strain. Hopefully you can now see the problem!

or 2) a complete overhaul of our healthcare and essential services infrastructure. It’s all well and good saying we can learn to live with Covid but if that means a continual stream of patients in already overburdened hospitals the risk of health system collapse becomes very real and would be a mess.
We must double our hospital capacity, build specific Covid only centres around the country and double our NHS workforce somehow. Without a robust health system that is able to deal with Covid spikes that do not affect our way of life we simply can not live with it
I suspect that ultimately this is the only way through, but the government will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to accept this because it runs directly counter to their long-term ambition for the NHS.
They want our health system to be run for the benefits of cronies and corporations
we NEED a health system which is run for the benefit of the people

Thanks @RedToothBrush, helpful stuff.

@Thewiseoneincognito

@RedToothBrush do you believe we can live with Covid without some level of restrictions though? You’re always pragmatic so I’d be keen to know what you think

Yes, RedToothBrush is an example of someone being pragmatic and realistic without a gleeful tone.

The tone and content of what is being said by both government and Whitty has changed though. Yes its about living with it now - but the feeling is we have 4 crucial weeks to get on top of things and get to the point where we have the best chance to just deal with things
My response to this is that it may not be possible to get covid to the point where we can deal with it with our existing health care infrastructure... unless we keep our borders closed

Our government came to power with the expectation that they can placate the population with bread and circuses and at the same time serve the needs and wants of their wealthy backers and cronies.
But because of Covid bread and circuses are no longer viable, bread and circuses rely on 'pile em high and sell em cheap'

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@RedToothBrush do you believe we can live with Covid without some level of restrictions though? You’re always pragmatic so I’d be keen to know what you think.

I just look at the NHS and think there’s no way in its current form, it needs a radical overhaul in order to cope as it is now never mind with the additional burden of Covid and Covid related illness. So far there seems to be barely any discussion around this and it feels like we are sleepwalking into a precarious situation.[/quote]
In the medium term covid will have to be monitored for a number of years. Long term we should be aiming for better public health survelliance, preparation and planning for new potential pandemics but this also needs, in part, better global cooperation.

I think that covid survelliance is likely to be in place for a few years as part of our every day life as a minimum. What this entails is probably open to debate and depends on how the vaccination programme world wide pans out too.

Vaccine passports for foreign travel is going to say for some time. I expect it to become possible that if you have certain symptoms you will be preventing from flying for example regardless of testing.

I do think that the cultural acceptance of turning up for work or school with a hacking cough is past for at least some time too. It just won't be tolerated socially.

So yes I think there will be long term change compared to where we were.

I think overall we are moving from a 'restrictions era' into a 'monitoring era' if that makes sense.

@RedToothBrush

I think overall we are moving from a 'restrictions era' into a 'monitoring era' if that makes sense.

Yes I think that’s the ideal goal too. Our borders will need to be managed very carefully if vaccination rates in some countries remain low and I hope that if certain places are experiencing issues we are quicker to react and make sound decisions.

My worry is I just can’t see how we can cope with ongoing infections with our current health system. It’s our Achilles heel and it needs addressing immediately if we are to transition from restrictions to monitoring anytime soon.

I don't disagree. Hence my concern about January.

@RedToothBrush another thank you from me for your clear, measured posts. Not good news, but not the end is nigh either.

Incidentally, did anyone else see about the “covid monitors” which have been developed? They are a bit like smoke alarms crossed with sniffer dogs and can detect quite accurately if anyone has covid in a classroom or plane. How wonderful if the person sitting next to you on a plane could be hauled off before they gave you some terrible disease (which is what happened to me some while ago ).

@RedToothBrush

It's an interesting point you make about "turning up with a hacking cough" and what's tolerated socially.

It'll end up like handwashing after toilet, where despite it serving almost no useful purpose after urination, there's a deep-seated fear amongst most people that this is some kind of huge no-no - powerful enough to make a water board drain a whole reservoir because someone was seen urinating in it!

The science always takes second place to fear, so we need to look at the future through this light.

What will it mean for rhinitis sufferers (e.g. hayfever) esp among school children? I foresee any sniffly kids suffering extreme bullying. To what extent will it change our choices regarding leisure time and even where to live? Will city house prices plummet and "country" prices soar as the former becomes associated with more covid outbreaks? Yes, I know this has already occurred to some extent, but that's more to do with people seeking bigger gardens than escaping the virus.

[quote IrmaFayLear]@RedToothBrush another thank you from me for your clear, measured posts. Not good news, but not the end is nigh either.

Incidentally, did anyone else see about the “covid monitors” which have been developed? They are a bit like smoke alarms crossed with sniffer dogs and can detect quite accurately if anyone has covid in a classroom or plane. How wonderful if the person sitting next to you on a plane could be hauled off before they gave you some terrible disease (which is what happened to me some while ago ).[/quote]
They are a bit like smoke alarms crossed with sniffer dogs and can detect quite accurately if anyone has covid in a classroom or plane

Lol - they sound like those explosive detectors that our government invested millions in, that turned out to be black boxes with a small random number generator and a couple of LEDs.

I wish I was as confident as you are OP about what the next four weeks are about.

Parliament after mid-July will be in recess, and Mr Johnson is even more contemptuous of it than Mr Blair was. He hates scrutiny or even normal questions, and so I would not put it past him to do something or keep some restrictions post 19 July. Or change a country from green to yellow or red for travel advice.

@newnortherner111

I wish I was as confident as you are OP about what the next four weeks are about.

Parliament after mid-July will be in recess, and Mr Johnson is even more contemptuous of it than Mr Blair was. He hates scrutiny or even normal questions, and so I would not put it past him to do something or keep some restrictions post 19 July. Or change a country from green to yellow or red for travel advice.

Even in a months' time once the relaxations happen, there'll still be travel restrictions to certain countries. They're with us for the long term whilst other countries have different levels of infections/vaccination rates.

I really do think the narrative is starting to shift, I don't personally mind the delay because this time there's a very firm exit.

I say this because once all adults are double jabbed....what else can they realistically do, and how can you expect people to accept further restrictions?

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

I think the next 4 weeks are about kicking the can down the road a bit. The government don’t really want to admit that increasing some more restrictions over the summer is more likely than not. I doesn’t look good if they announce that on ‘freedom day’ though.

Disagree entirely with this. Whether you like it or not the country cannot afford to lockdown continuously and with vaccines being boostered there is no justification. There is absolutely no point in anyone being vaccinated if we still have to live with restrictions. I certainly won’t be having a booster if we are not able to return to normal. America is getting rid of restrictions and they have had this delta variant as long as we have. Life has to go on.

@Racoonworld

I hope you're right OP. We do need to get on with it and live with it. Some people are really going to need help to get over their fear of Covid.

I agree but we can no longer keep the majority locked up just because some people don’t want to deal with their fear. I certainly won’t be and if you think I’m selfish then so be it. I am fully vaccinated and am tested weekly. I am not endangering anyone but I will be putty my family’s needs first.

Whether you like it or not the country cannot afford to lockdown continuously and with vaccines being boostered there is no justification.

I agree. The fact that there is no extension to the furlough scheme would indicate that the government is preparing to let businesses reopen properly (ie at full capacity) soon. Whitty was really clear yesterday that when we do reopen, it will be with a higher number of cases than we have now. If the link between cases and hospitalisation & death has largely been severed Johnson will struggle to convince his own MPs to continue with restrictions. Even if he has enough cross-party support in Parliament to continue with restrictions, I can see a full on revolt within the party which would cost him his premiership.

That said, I think restrictions on international travel may well be around for some time yet.

@User1234123

I really do think the narrative is starting to shift, I don't personally mind the delay because this time there's a very firm exit.

I say this because once all adults are double jabbed....what else can they realistically do, and how can you expect people to accept further restrictions?

You’re right but let us not forget that the virus will do whatever it wants regardless of how we feel about restrictions. We’re in uncharted territory in terms of understanding the true scope of its potential and should it mutate again either here or elsewhere we need to be prepared to change tack if necessary.

I hope it does lead to “snort shaming”.

I have a chronic cough and if I can’t go to the theatre or cinema again then I think that’s fair enough. It’s not my right to scare the wits out of people, even though my cough is not a contagious one.

Coughing, sneezing and spluttering on planes/trains is absolutely unacceptable. I have an axe to grind here because I sat on plane next to a man who was clearly ill, and then contracted his disease myself, which nearly killed me. We can’t do much about asymptomatic people, but boarding public transport or entering enclosed spaces knowing you are ill is something which as a global society we can no longer afford to tolerate.

@ChloeCrocodile

Whether you like it or not the country cannot afford to lockdown continuously and with vaccines being boostered there is no justification.

I agree. The fact that there is no extension to the furlough scheme would indicate that the government is preparing to let businesses reopen properly (ie at full capacity) soon. Whitty was really clear yesterday that when we do reopen, it will be with a higher number of cases than we have now. If the link between cases and hospitalisation & death has largely been severed Johnson will struggle to convince his own MPs to continue with restrictions. Even if he has enough cross-party support in Parliament to continue with restrictions, I can see a full on revolt within the party which would cost him his premiership.

That said, I think restrictions on international travel may well be around for some time yet.

Whilst I agree that logically it makes sense. Our govt doesn't do "logic". Look at last October. Furlough "officially" stopped on 31 October. That was the plan, despite infection rates rising dramatically throughout October. There was no change to "the plan" throughout October and lots of employers made staff redundant on Friday 30 October in view of furlough stopping the next day. Then, on 31 October itself, the November lockdown was announced, together with an extension of the furlough scheme.

So, no, I really don't think that the planned reduction in furlough from 1 July means anything at all. I think it more likely means that they've not thought about it at all. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 2/3 week extension announced on 30 June to take it to the new "freedom" day.

I wouldn’t be shocked if furlough was extended until autumn again if the numbers are worse than expected