Right. I don't think this was explained well enough in last night's press conference so here's where we are at.
In terms of the growth of the virus, the point is its exponentially growing at this point. That means that even though its small numbers now it has the potential to explode very quickly. We can't stop this. There are ways we can limit how fast this happens and when it happens. We all (by now) should understand the concept of flattening the curve. This time is slightly different though.
There was a key point Chris Whitty made - on the 19th July - even with this delay - the number of cases will be higher than now. They aren't trying to stop this dead like before. The delay is to get jabs in arms and maintain the current rate of growth rather than allow it to accelerate.
This is something thats crucial to understand.
The government are now saying 'we have accepted a certain number of deaths as inevitable and on balance more restrictions would do more harm'. Johnson made the strong point that the vaccine works for most of us, but there is a small minority for whom its only a minimual benefit. This isn't unusual - we know this is the case with all vaccinations. We just don't know who this is hence why we go for herd immunity using vaccines in the first place.
To sum up - you can't stop a wave, you can only manage it and even if you vaccinated 100% of the population you'd still have some vulnerable to it.
So we have to deal with the wave coming through and we have to do the best we can to protect those who can't be vaccinated or remain unprotected despite vaccination by doing as many other people as possible.
If we delay opening up too much we run into the winter which would cause additional problems (eg immunity may be on decline at the same point the most vulnerable need 3rd doses). We actually need the wave to be over by the autumn so the optimum window of opportunity to manage the situation is limited. If the UK get through it earlier than other countries who are slower on the vaccination drive / have lesser uptake - we actually will be well placed going forward because our infrustructure to manufacture and deliver variant specific top ups quickly (more quickly than the roll out has been) will be up to speed.
Basically its all a race against time.
Whether this will work is another matter but only time will tell. But the theory is good its just the practicalities of it.
I don't think a 4 week delay is a disaster. The tone and content of what is being said by both government and Whitty has changed though. Yes its about living with it now - but the feeling is we have 4 crucial weeks to get on top of things and get to the point where we have the best chance to just deal with things
Do I think another lockdown is possible? Yes. Possibly in January. But the progress of pandemics is that subsequent waves gradually do decrease in potency and impact even without vaccinations. The modelling is signicantly better than it was last autum at the start of the 2nd wave too.
But that will be a last resort if there is a critical situation in hospitals. And its only likely to be short if it does happen.
To be blunt able it, there is a pool of people who are most at risk of this, and that group shrinks in size as the pandemic progresses (either because they respond well to vaccinations or the die). And thats really the limiting factor here.
As for subsequent variants - worldwide vaccination rollout will help, the pool of the vulnerable will decrease and our ability to get new variant specific vaccines out at speed will be there. So new variants as a risk continue but the risk gradually decreases over time.
Time is the key here.