If Delta variant is just like a cold ...

[Dustyboots]

Why all the fuss?

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/14/delta-variant-covid-symptoms-include-headaches-sore-throat-and-runny-nose

I mean, it's really very simple. 80-90% fully vaccinated (worldwide) means limited opportunity to spread. Any small number of cases would be easily managed and contained. So simple yet seemingly so hard to understand for many (including some governments).

@Tealightsandd

I mean, it's really very simple. 80-90% fully vaccinated (worldwide) means limited opportunity to spread. Any small number of cases would be easily managed and contained. So simple yet seemingly so hard to understand for many (including some governments).

Ah I see you want us in perpetual lockdown?

No.

No. That's the opposite of what I want.

@Zotter

You do know that Covid will always be here now right?

I do but hopefully at low levels.

But that means keeping restrictions in place ..forever. Open, shut, open, shut. when can we ever move forward?

@Tealightsandd

No. That's the opposite of what I want.

But apparently vaccines dont work

Even those with long CoVid who may not have organ damage can still be very debilitated. One long CoVid group’s main symptoms are post-exertional malaise, cognitive dysfunction and fatigue. It’s very difficult going from being an active well person to suddenly having much reduced functioning.

But that means keeping restrictions in place ..forever. Open, shut, open, shut. when can we ever move forward?

Well no. Because suppression, near elimination, kind of gets rid of the need for all those measures. Failing to suppress - allowing it to become endemic, always a risk, is what would prevent us from moving forward.

If it had been down to me, the approach I would've adopted (Australia, New Zealand, East Asia), we would have been largely back to normal one year ago. With a healthier economy (like theirs).

@Zotter

Even those with long CoVid who may not have organ damage can still be very debilitated. One long CoVid group’s main symptoms are post-exertional malaise, cognitive dysfunction and fatigue. It’s very difficult going from being an active well person to suddenly having much reduced functioning.

Yes and I bet that's absolutely shit for them. But so is getting cancer and other shit illnesses people have to live with through no fault of their own.

The restrictions are ruining peoples lives too.

But that means keeping restrictions in place ..forever. Open, shut, open, shut. when can we ever move forward?

No, hopefully not once all are vaccinated and a good test and trace system is in place. Levels then will hopefully remain low and manageable.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/may/31/rich-countries-vaccines-covid-19-manageable-health-issue-pandemic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Because you can be a young, healthy person who can get it and then end up with a suspected blood clot and a week in hospital - as happened to the ds of a friend of mine who is a fit, under 30, martial arts expert

But that means keeping restrictions in place ..forever. Open, shut, open, shut. when can we ever move forward?

Why would we need to do that, if we had the majority fully vaccinated (with boosters if required)? The virus would have only limited opportunity to spread. Which means a very small number of cases only (so easily and quickly treated and contained).

Failing to take action now to properly contain and suppress. That is what will mean us never being able to move on, forever stuck with it. There is the risk of a vaccine resistant strain evolving. The answer is simple. Measures taken now AND get the majority vaccinated - so that we don't keep going on and on and on dealing with this.

Yes and I bet that's absolutely shit for them. But so is getting cancer and other shit illnesses people have to live with through no fault of their own.

@Scrambledcustard

precisely why we don't want to risk another national lockdown by opening up too quickly

right now people are able to access healthcare services and the NHS is working it's way through the huge backlog that built up due to the pandemic and previous restrictions

Agree Tealightsandd.

Finally from Sridhar’s article -

“So when will the pandemic be over? Covid-19 won’t end with a bang or a parade. Throughout history, pandemics have ended when the disease ceases to dominate daily life and retreats into the background like other health challenges. Barring a horrific new variant, rich countries such as Britain and the US may be within months, if not weeks, of what their citizens will see as the end of the pandemic.”

An example. We had a relatively low number of cases at the end of the winter lockdown. We could've have had more domestic freedom. Instead, what did the government do? They decided to import the Delta strain and then let it spread.

Pandemic border control with proper quarantine was (and still is) needed, until the majority are fully vaccinated.

Because another friend, who has effectively shielded since last May but whose dh had occasionally needed to go out to work or to the shops, was confirmed positive the day before her 2nd jag was due and ended up in hospital for a week on oxygen as her Sats levels were so low

This is affecting real people. It's not theoretical. It's an ongoing risk

@Tealightsandd

But that means keeping restrictions in place ..forever. Open, shut, open, shut. when can we ever move forward?

Well no. Because suppression, near elimination, kind of gets rid of the need for all those measures. Failing to suppress - allowing it to become endemic, always a risk, is what would prevent us from moving forward.

If it had been down to me, the approach I would've adopted (Australia, New Zealand, East Asia), we would have been largely back to normal one year ago. With a healthier economy (like theirs).

Australia is rife with the Indian variant despite one of the most draconian border closures. It still got in. New Zealand has around 4 million people - we have 66 million. East Asia were well prepared, this isn't their first rodeo with deals viruses.

Lockdowns do not work, they just suppress then release.

@Zotter

Even those with long CoVid who may not have organ damage can still be very debilitated. One long CoVid group’s main symptoms are post-exertional malaise, cognitive dysfunction and fatigue. It’s very difficult going from being an active well person to suddenly having much reduced functioning.

Yes people are being left unable to work.

@prettybird

Because another friend, who has effectively shielded since last May but whose dh had occasionally needed to go out to work or to the shops, was confirmed positive the day before her 2nd jag was due and ended up in hospital for a week on oxygen as her Sats levels were so low

This is affecting real people. It's not theoretical. It's an ongoing risk

My friends grandad went in to hospital with a stroke, he fell out of bed and broke his neck and died. True story.

I have family in Australia and New Zealand. Australia is not rife with any strain. My family's lives are mostly as normal pre pandemic. Australia is rolling out the vaccines. Not as fast as us but the need is less urgent. One (in their 40s) had their first Pfizer a few weeks ago. Another has just booked their appointment.

@Dustyboots

The answer is in the article - more transmissible and more likely to need hospital treatment.

The article says it’s more transmissible but not that it’s more likely to need hospital treatment.

OP did you actually read the article you posted? Or did you not understand that the variant doubling the risk of hospitalisation means the same things as being more likely to require hospital treatment??

Data suggests that the Delta variant is at least 40% more transmissible than the Alpha variant first detected in Kent, and appears to double the risk of hospitalisation. It also renders vaccines somewhat less effective, particularly after only one dose.

It still got in

A big difference between a few cases leaking through (real) quarantine and then swift action to contain. Versus the UK approach of wide open to any and all new strains - and then let them freely spread.

@ollyollyoxenfree

Yes and I bet that's absolutely shit for them. But so is getting cancer and other shit illnesses people have to live with through no fault of their own.

@Scrambledcustard

precisely why we don't want to risk another national lockdown by opening up too quickly

right now people are able to access healthcare services and the NHS is working it's way through the huge backlog that built up due to the pandemic and previous restrictions

So we need to stay in restrictions 'just in case'...

Well I suppose you would feel like that if you were financially secure, not worried if your business was going to go bust, lose your job, income and home for a virus that was really isn't killing the people it was due to vaccinations.

@Tealightsandd

It still got in

A big difference between a few cases leaking through (real) quarantine and then swift action to contain. Versus the UK approach of wide open to any and all new strains - and then let them freely spread.

But infection cases dont = deaths.

The NHS have said this isn't the case. Thanks to the vaccination program.

Head brick wall.

And just to make it clear: both cases I was referring to were in the last few weeks and involve the Delta variant. I live in the middle of one of the initial Delta variant hotspots - so we were getting PCR and later flow tests delivered to the house

So yes, I take keeping to the guidelines seriously. Even though it meant curtailed big birthday celebrations.