How to avoid another lockdown - video

[SonnetForSpring]

Please watch this if you would like to better understand the situation regarding 21st June and the delta variant.

Whilst I appreciate the broad sentiment of this video, it’s based on anecdotal evidence as far as children are concerned. And is complicit in spreading fear rather than perhaps the greater understanding it sets out to present. ‘Countries that acted hard and fast’ - is that what you really want, hard and fast? I’m not anti lockdown at all, I’m vaccinated, I have followed all the rules. But this video is not as helpful as it purports to be and I think by posting it on mumsnet you are just spreading fear and encouraging people to switch off.

I can't help it if people switch off. It was out together by SAGE not me.

I approve of this message.

It was clear and factual. (And short)

@SonnetForSpring

I can't help it if people switch off. It was out together by SAGE not me.

It's actually NOT by SAGE

It's by Independant SAGE. Different Group entirely.

I think they're right though.

Why is factual often dismissed as "spreading fear" on these forums?

Some people like to be in possession of the facts. Those who don't, can continue sticking their fingers in their ears and singing "Lalala" or not watch/listen to the factual information given.

And yes, Independent Sage. Though I think educationally they are as qualified as Sage, just not the official Government advisors? Please correct me if that's wrong, that was just what I thought.

Sorry yes independent sage although there is nothing on there that doesn't agree with what sage are saying too.

I was particularly taking issue with the bit near the beginning about ‘anecdotal evidence’ of delta variant disproportionally effecting children. It is simply not the case, as far as I’m aware, that there is any scientific evidence it affects children more. So the video is spreading fear amongst parents, on a forum for mothers. I really do support the sentiment of the video but I think their messaging is really off.

@Sandyjag

I was particularly taking issue with the bit near the beginning about ‘anecdotal evidence’ of delta variant disproportionally effecting children. It is simply not the case, as far as I’m aware, that there is any scientific evidence it affects children more. So the video is spreading fear amongst parents, on a forum for mothers. I really do support the sentiment of the video but I think their messaging is really off.

Absolutely this ^

Sandy, as far as I know, both Singapore and India have highlighted that they are concerned children are being impacted more. So there is anecdotal evidence. That's why Singapore closed schools in latest lockdown. I have a few friends who live there. So yes we don't have scientific evidence but sometimes you have to take the possibility of things into account before you have full data.

The spread amongst schoolchildren is an issue though...which obviously isn't great with the recommendation to lose masks in schools.

Latest data from the Office for National Statistics for the week to 29 May show that numbers of cases of covid-19 have been rising fastest in schoolchildren in years 7 to 11.3 Data from Public Health England show that the number of outbreaks involving variants managed by health protection teams in educational settings have been rising for some weeks and trebled in the last two weeks of May.4 In the week to 1 June health protection teams managed more outbreaks in educational settings than in any other defined setting, and the vast majority of outbreaks involved the delta variant.

I think it's a pretty good video.

I didn't start this thread to argue about scaremongering. I started it because I keep seeing people asking why restrictions would not be lifted on 21st.

@SonnetForSpring
There will be many people who will come on this thread that will say worse things than 'scaremongering'....but petsonally I think it's a good explanation of where we are at, so thankyou for posting.

Fauci and many other scientists are concerned about covid health impacts on children. Yes its horrible to think about by sticking heads in sand is not going to help. We have to investigate things and consider their existence even if it scares us.

We have to investigate things and consider their existence even if it scares us.

We have a lot of fairly good data on covid in children now, 18 months into this. We have plenty of evidence about the risk to them (low, although not zero).

I’m sure if there really is evidence of delta being more of a threat to children than all the previous variants, then we will have some scientific evidence to say so and won’t need to rely on anecdotes.

@Sandyjag

I was particularly taking issue with the bit near the beginning about ‘anecdotal evidence’ of delta variant disproportionally effecting children. It is simply not the case, as far as I’m aware, that there is any scientific evidence it affects children more. So the video is spreading fear amongst parents, on a forum for mothers. I really do support the sentiment of the video but I think their messaging is really off.

I'm not sure of the figures but I'm assuming the 'disproportionate' applies to...

(Figures plucked from nowhere for example)

... with the alpha variant, 5% of positive cases are in people under the age of 18
... with the delta variant, 15% of positive cases are in people under the age of 18

Therefore disproportionate in comparison to what was reported with previous variants.

If anyone knows the actual figures, I'd assume it is disproportionate, though would be happy to be shown to be wrong.

And I’d people aren’t listening to Independent SAGE at this point, that’s at least partly because Independent SAGE have done a weird mixture of sensible advice with wrong/odd/disproportionately-overstating-risk ‘advice’, and having some of their more prominent figures come across as either naive or weird.

Bit of a shame, really, but I suppose that’s the course they wanted to go, so oh well.

@GoldenOmber

We have to investigate things and consider their existence even if it scares us.

We have a lot of fairly good data on covid in children now, 18 months into this. We have plenty of evidence about the risk to them (low, although not zero).

I’m sure if there really is evidence of delta being more of a threat to children than all the previous variants, then we will have some scientific evidence to say so and won’t need to rely on anecdotes.

The delta wave is only just starting so no, we don't have scientific evidence on its impact on children yet.

@GoldenOmber

And I’d people aren’t listening to Independent SAGE at this point, that’s at least partly because Independent SAGE have done a weird mixture of sensible advice with wrong/odd/disproportionately-overstating-risk ‘advice’, and having some of their more prominent figures come across as either naive or weird.

Bit of a shame, really, but I suppose that’s the course they wanted to go, so oh well.

People can listen to who ever they want. It won't stop what is happening with regards to the third wave. It may cause another lockdown but that's the risk they take. Why is there so much misdirected anger. Yes it's a shit situation but let's work together not argue all the time about everything.

The delta wave is only just starting so no, we don't have scientific evidence on its impact on children yet.

RCPCH put out a statement saying they aren’t seeing a worrying rise in paediatric admissions with delta, and I presume they are indeed looking at this with child health being their actual job and all, so I’m happy to go with that for now. If further evidence comes to light that children are indeed more at risk, I’m sure they’ll say so.

Take a breath goldenomber.

@SonnetForSpring

Take a breath goldenomber.

Just because I mention fear, it doesn’t mean that I necessarily don’t have a point. I precisely do.

Thanks Goldenomber, that’s interesting that’s its true to form for independent sage. A shame they can’t improve their message.

Dumplingsandstew I guess that’s right they’re probably talking about the spread of cases across age groups. And not about it affecting children more severely. And perhaps they’re not being clear enough about that when they should be.

My main concern is that covid is now left to run riot amongst school children and that it does mutate into something that affects them more seriously (but I don’t believe it’s the case that Delta does) Which is why I was hoping for more from this video!

It's just explaining the basics, sorry.

I was distracted by the choice of music tbh - think it was borderline a bit iffy - would they have put Jerusalem behind a discussion of the Alpha variant...?