Covid rates rising again - anecdotal evidence

[Tulipomania]

Rates seem to be clearly on the increase among the young and unvaccinated.
Having not heard of anyone I know having it for several months, last week I heard of two cases in my network, one in the Northwest and one in London (both fine, but positive).
Other experiences?

South East. Don't know anyone who's had it since Christmas

@WaterBottle123

There's no such thing as anecdotal evidence, that's an oxymoron,

HTH

Actually there is, but don't let accepted usage get in the way of a derailment.

Anecdotal evidence means that it is set of real life accounts, which have not been assessed to show the extent to which they are representative. Even solely for the sake of brevity it's a useful term.

If personal experience is not ‘evidence’ then every court room in the world is fucked.

Our school (primary) is on the cusp of closure- with 6 classes isolating. Only a few weeks left of term as we are in Scotland. So I think it may well close early to stop the spread. 😔

@HelloMissus

If personal experience is not ‘evidence’ then every court room in the world is fucked.

But what works on an individual level is not relevant across a population.

Using a handful of posts on an internet forum where there has been no control for accuracy or representative sampling to extrapolate into data for an entire country is unlikely to paint a true picture.

Using your court example, that would be like saying, well that person carried out a robbery, therefore robbery is rising exponentially. You have no idea whether that robbery was the only one of the year, or that it was one of dozens that happen every day.

‘Anecdata’ is my favourite portmanteau

I don't know anyone whose had it this year, but I guess it won't be long. We've had low case numbers throughout, a month ago had the second lowest level in the UK, but numbers have shot up since and we're very close to maximum case numbers again.

@Wherediditgo

‘Anecdata’ is my favourite portmanteau

Thank you for today's 'every day is a school day' moment. Having googled, I now know what a portmanteau is and offer automagically as mine.

@Tulipomania A lot of "it's over" threads around March/April time with people declaring the pandemic done because they didn't know any cases personally.

Of course these exact same threads were around last summer too and look how that turned out.

I think you'll find that many people here who know about recent cases work in schools. I work in a secondary school in London and there has been cases just before half term and some kids are still off either with Covid, or self isolating.

It really depends on how many people you actually 'know'.

Sw London and my 20 month daughter currently has covid. She quite poorly, it's has been a scary few days with breathing difficulties.
We've been keeping ourselves as covid safe as possible, don't attend parks / inside venues / crowded areas. We think she must have picked it up at nursery. That's the only place she's in contact with others.
Stay safe people. It's real and can take anyone at any age down quite badly. I just hope we don't get it badly whilst trying to care for her.

dd aged 21 tested positive despite having half the vaccine

Using a handful of posts on an internet forum where there has been no control for accuracy or representative sampling to extrapolate into data for an entire country is unlikely to paint a true picture.

That's not what this thread is about though.

We already know from the media that the data suggests that rates are rising in certain parts of the country, particularly among the unvaccinated. I kicked off with two examples I had very recently heard about. And plenty of other people have posted on here with examples from their own experience which corroborates those reports.

I am not drawing any scientific conclusions, but I find it interesting. Others may not, so no need to post. But please don't patronise those of us who do.

Today I was told by the app to isolate until the end of Sunday.

The contact was last Thursday through a fence panel between tables in a pub garden as we knew the people at that table and all four of them have since tested positive.

The app alerted everyone on my side of the table, but didn't alert the people sat opposite me presumably because they were more than two metres from the infectious table, and through the fence panel which was at my back. There was some visiting between the tables, but not for longer than 15 minutes which is the contact tracing time period that the app recognises as "long enough" to potentially be infected, and two metres is the app distance limit estimated by bluetooth (broadly).

All the people at my table took tests today, all were negative.
We'll be taking another test on day eight (Friday). Two of those at my table take very regular tests as it is mandated for their work and they have always been negative.

My friends range in age from 20s to 60s and all four of the infected were in their 20s and unvaccinated.
Four of the eight people at my table were vaccinated, all but one twice.

I live in the South East and surge testing started here yesterday. Our cases are 89 per 100,000.

Prior to this, I know only three people locally who have had a positive test, all from a school setting, and that was April-ish last year.

For me personally, this has been a useful reminder that this is not over.

At the very start, an elderly couple in my church got it - one died, one lived. An uncle and a few cousins had it in April (big family). A student I know who went to halls got it in September, all the flats around her did - she just had a bad headache!

And that's it. My son's nursery never had a bubble burst, even though we are in Leicester.

GP SW London, I have lots of anecdata - rates are definitely climbing at our practice, we had so many people ringing today with new coughs and fevers. Hardly anyone is testing or some are using lateral flows despite having symptoms.

Yesterday I had a call from a patient who has now rung three times since last week with his symptoms (sore throat, insistent it's tonsillitis despite having no pus on his tonsils), told to isolate and test all three times but only finally got round to doing it yesterday and still sent his kids to school on Monday. Positive test result came into my inbox today. The kids have also developed symptoms today so are getting tested, that's another bubble in a local school likely to get sent home but are currently walking around spreading it. This patient's father also tested positive and has a headache and runny nose despite having had two doses of the vaccine. Luckily so far, no-one in this family are too ill.

Spoke with another chap who tested positive last week, also tested positive last year so it's re-infection. He says it's worse this time but luckily doesn't have any breathing difficulties, mainly headache, muscle pains and fatigue. We've had a couple of reinfections in the past couple of weeks.

One of my patients was hospitalised last week for oxygen support but luckily didn't need any further intervention. He's home now but still feeling very rough.

I think the 21st of June might need to be delayed a few weeks to check that the hospitalisations/deaths don't go up and allow the 40somethings to get their second jabs. On one hand, I agree we'll need to learn to live with it but on the other hand high rates lead to more mutations which are problematic for the vaccines and we don't want to end up with a repeat of 2020 when it feels like we're so close to the end.

I think the 21st of June might need to be delayed a few weeks

Goodness do you really think so ?

SW London and know of several secondaries which have sent groups of pupils home.

Now that England is vaccinating all over 25s, I really don't see whey don't allow all school staff to access the jab (at drop ins, even if they can't set it up online). It'll not make much difference to this term (because of the. 2-3weeks to 'take') but it should mean everyone working in schools who wants to be immunised is double-jabbed and taken effect by autumn

@ExpulsoCorona - when you say “some are using lateral flow tests despite having symptoms” - do you mean that once you’re symptomatic the lateral flows are unhelpful? Because that would explain a thing or two about a recent outbreak I dealt with in my workplace

My next door neighbour has just had to collect their Reception child as their bubble has burst. I've got one in the juniors, I'm hoping it's not spread in the school. We're not in a hotspot area.

Having not had anyone I know test positive for ages (in January/February I knew lots and last year quite a few too), three of my work colleagues tested positive yesterday - all WFH, one in Bristol, two in London. All under 30, one has had one vaccination (last week) and the other two are unvaccinated still. Two of them feeling very unwell, the one who has had her vaccination feels completely fine.

My family had it back in January. Dh works in the hospital and ds3 was first to show symptoms. Since ds3 was under 1yr, we took it to dm house (who we bubbled with) and most people over there tested positive to.

Since then no-one I know has tested positive. But ppe apparently protects dh while he is at work so it don't matter he came into contact with few patients that test positive or the fact their latest newest colleague tested positive few weeks ago.

I think the chances of us getting it again is low. I do know it is not guaranteed and that is why I had tested ds3 after he had what I now think was high temperature caused by teething.

[quote Longtalljosie]@ExpulsoCorona - when you say “some are using lateral flow tests despite having symptoms” - do you mean that once you’re symptomatic the lateral flows are unhelpful? Because that would explain a thing or two about a recent outbreak I dealt with in my workplace[/quote]
LFTs are only for people without symptoms, that's the point of them.

If you have symptoms you need a PCR test. I'm a little surprised that message still hasn't got through to everyone

A few positive cases in my FB friends over the past fortnight, a couple of kids off with it at DC’s school, and at least 4 off with it in my relatively small workplace.
I’m in the NW but not in a Delta hotspot - in fact, there were barely any cases here for a long time until just over a week ago.