Stats on Risks of AZ Vaccine

[Luckingfovely]

Just to put it in perspective (source: NHS Salford).

This is a very good visual. Though likely wasted on here.

Are the clots caused by the vaccine somehow more deadly Than the other causes does anyone know?

Not an anti vaxxer by the way, had my 2nd AZ dose last week though am feeling anxiety every time my head hurts now!

1. the AZ incidence is out of date - you can at least triple it
2. the type of clot you get from the pill has a much lower mortality rate
3. you can choose not to smoke without penalty and you can choose a different birth control method - most people get no choice of vaccine and are worse off for not being vaccinated
4. it's missing a panel to the left with the incidence of clots that can be attributed to Pfizer and Moderna (that would be zero so far to the best of my knowledge).

That seems a bit dubious to me. 16.5% of ANY covid infection, including the asymptomatic or mild cases? Or do they mean hospitalised cases of Covid infection.

I find it rather hard to believe that one in 6 people who catch covid have a dangerous blood clot tbh.

165000 clots in what particular age group though? I doubt that’s for people in their 30s.

The blood clots are very, very different.

Birth control and smoking are a choice.

You may not ever get coronavirus.

These things are not really comparable.

Stats can be presented in different ways.

That visual is irrelevant to me. I don't smoke, I don't take the birth control pill and I haven't caught Covid even though people in my household did. Young, healthy people are less likely to be adversely affected by Covid.

I'm not anti vax, have had 2 doses of AZ myself.

But people are entitled to understand the personal risk/benefit of a medication without being shouted down, ridiculed and manipulated.

@SandyCane

Exactly. At 32 I accept the blood clot risk my implant might give me. Huge benefit to my life though not getting pregnant.

That visual means absolutely nothing. It takes into account all age groups. I think the vaccine is a good idea for elderly people.

Not having my second AZ.

@Sirranon

That seems a bit dubious to me. 16.5% of ANY covid infection, including the asymptomatic or mild cases? Or do they mean hospitalised cases of Covid infection.

I find it rather hard to believe that one in 6 people who catch covid have a dangerous blood clot tbh.

You're right to be dubious. If we want to compare apples with apples we want to look at the rate of CVT after covid which has been estimated to be 39 in a million - only 3x the current estimate of VITT after AZ which is almost certainly a large underestimate due to lag.

www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1005

The chances of getting a blood clot from the vaccine for younger people is much higher than that.

Also, the blood clots caused by the pill are not as likely to be fatal as ones caused by the vaccine.

It's not a very good visual, tbh, and if people want to wait for a vaccine they feel more comfortable with, they should be able to do that without people getting at them.

That’s excellent.

Unfortunately, the anti vaxxers are not interested in rational evidence about relative risk which challenges their disinformation.

The thing is you can present stats in any way you want to say whatever you want.

For instance in Scotland there were no corona deaths for weeks recently (I know there have been some again) but in that time of no corona deaths there was a report that 3 people in Scotland died as a result of the vaccine.

So you were far more likely to die of the vaccine than corona in Scotland. Yet you can bet you would never see that as a headline.

Stats like the visual above are totally meaningless unless they are comparing absolute like for like (age groups etc)

@AgeLikeWine

Anti vaxxers my arse!! I happily had the first AZ vaccine before all this came out. I had the swine flu jab in 2010 when I was pregnant and that hadn’t even been tested on pregnant women.

Now because people are daring to question it they get called out for being an “anti vaxxer”

Yawn.

@AgeLikeWine

That’s excellent.

Unfortunately, the anti vaxxers are not interested in rational evidence about relative risk which challenges their disinformation.

It's no antivaxx to want everyone to get a choice of vaccine! That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

@MareofBeasttown

This is a very good visual. Though likely wasted on here.

Agreed, many people on here just want to whip others into the same frenzy of anxiety about AZ as they have.

@SandyCane

The thing is you can present stats in any way you want to say whatever you want.

For instance in Scotland there were no corona deaths for weeks recently (I know there have been some again) but in that time of no corona deaths there was a report that 3 people in Scotland died as a result of the vaccine.

So you were far more likely to die of the vaccine than corona in Scotland. Yet you can bet you would never see that as a headline.

Stats like the visual above are totally meaningless unless they are comparing absolute like for like (age groups etc)

Right - but why do you think there have there been 0 deaths and fewer cases in general?

It's a very misleading graphic, for all the reasons already mentioned. I am sick of the comparisons to the pill, when the type of clot from AZ is very different (and far more dangerous).

It is not antivax to have concerns about AZ specifically, in fact it's common sense given the data available. Are the medical regulators around the world, who placed restrictions on AZ, antivax too?

Unfortunately, the anti vaxxers are not interested in rational evidence about relative risk which challenges their disinformation.

That would be a fair comment about actual anti-vaxxers.

The people who have concerns about AZ and would prefer an alternative are clearly not anti-vaxxers.

The pill apparently does increase cvst rise as well as dvt though.

I agree with pps that this graphic is incredibly wrong as it's the 40s bwing forced to take it but no breakdown here by age or sex...
Which is something like 1/50-80k.
Plus you then have to take second dose.
I really do think under 50 min should have been offered an alternative. But i do see that maybe that would have meant no vax left for kids.
So really it's
Vax For kids
and decreased circulating covid
Fewer covid deaths
Fewer isolations for teens
No lockdowns

vs deaths of 40-60yo.

The manipulation though is such that im not even sure if the data on people with 1 vax getting the indian variant is true? As that could just be to force people to complete the AZ course?

The risks from the second dose is even tinier. However the risks from covid in younger age groups is less than the risks from blood clots, hence they now vaccinate with Pfizer. Yes it's tiny, but if you are unlikely to get especially sick with covid, it's a reasonable choice for you personally. Not so good for the population as a whole though.

The stats are completely out of date. The risk is now 13 in a million and for under 50s it’s much higher than that, at least 20 in a million. The risks of covid are low in the age groups most at risk from the vaccination. The MHRA are still refusing to give the number of people vaccinated in each of the age groups making it impossible to work out the actual risk. I’m confident they’d publish this information if it would encourage people to take AZ. There’s also a huge lack of transparency re the risk of second doses. I’m so fed up of people being belittled for being concerned about the risks particularly a risk where the incidence rates increase week on week. Especially given that most of the people who are scathing about anyone having concerns about AZ haven’t usually bothered to ensure that they have the most up to date statistics. This is an ever changing situation and otherwise healthy people who were at low risk from covid are dying as a result of the vaccination in larger numbers than I feel comfortable with. The clots associated with AZ have an 18 percent fatality rate and clots on the brain are serious just because the other 82 percent have survived it doesn’t mean that serious harm hasn’t occurred.

@AgeLikeWine

That’s excellent.

Unfortunately, the anti vaxxers are not interested in rational evidence about relative risk which challenges their disinformation.

Kind of already been picked apart by previous posters before you chimed in, but sure, ‘rational evidence’ 🙄😂

@AgeLikeWine

That’s excellent.

Unfortunately, the anti vaxxers are not interested in rational evidence about relative risk which challenges their disinformation.

People who are concerned about the side effects of AZ are not anti vaxers. This is such a dismissive and insulting statement. How dare anyone be concerned about a potential risk of death when the risk of covid is potentially even less in some age groups. How dare anyone take some personal responsibility for their individual risk from the vaccination or have any opinion on what’s put into their body! There are safer vaccinations around for some cohorts many people concerned about AZ would happily take Pfizer. I’ve had my first dose of AZ so how am I anti vax? Does the fact I’m concerned that healthy women in their 30s just like me have died after AZ make me anti vax or should I just be a good girl and do what I’m told with my body?! I know this is a rant but this attitude needs to change!

So you were far more likely to die of the vaccine than corona in Scotland. Yet you can bet you would never see that as a headline
The vaccine protects people longer term than the short period there were no deaths and people travel to different areas anyway

The blood clots caused by AZ have a fatality rate of just under 20%. The pill is no where near that, what woman would take it if it was?!