Stats on Risks of AZ Vaccine

[Luckingfovely]

Just to put it in perspective (source: NHS Salford).

Risk of cerebral venous thrombosis:
With Covid infection: 39 per million - and one third were under 30 years old.
With Astra Zeneca vaccine: 5 per million
With Pfizer or Moderna: 4 per million.
It seems pretty clear that any vaccine is safer than getting Covid at any age, and there is not a huge difference between AZ and the others.

@TruelyStruttingHotpants

Johnson and Johnson that also causes blood clots has just been approved in the UK

Going to be interesting to see who on earth they plan to give this too🤓

Younger men? Could actually be safer for them as a group with reports about that myocarditis link to Pfizer

These graphics make me less likely to get the vaccine to be honest. How can you even compare a clot from the pill? Which I choose not to have anyway.

And the clot risks from covid seem like horseshit.

There is something VERY strange going on

@Babdoc

Risk of cerebral venous thrombosis: With Covid infection: 39 per million - and one third were under 30 years old. With Astra Zeneca vaccine: 5 per million With Pfizer or Moderna: 4 per million. It seems pretty clear that any vaccine is safer than getting Covid at any age, and there is not a huge difference between AZ and the others.

Where did you get your figures from? The AZ one is out of date and I’d like to check the others.

@bumbleymummy

Indeed. I don't believe those stats are for CVSTs with low platelets, which is the definitive feature of the AZ related clotting disorder. Pfizer and Moderna have not caused fatal blood clots on the brain.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but working on the basis that 13 per million get a clot, risk 0.0013% and of those, 18% die, isn't that a 0.00023% risk of dying? Maths isn't my strongest subject so my workings out could be wrong. If I'm not, then the risk is minute.

The BBC were referencing the 39 per million stat yesterday. The underlying study identified 500k "cases" from a US healthcare database of 81m covering a time span of Jan '20 to March '21. The UK has an adult population of around 55m and in the same timeframe has recorded around 4.5m "cases". UK antibody studies estimate the actual case level for the UK population to be much much higher.

This suggests that the "case" denominator for the study is more than 10x higher than that used to calculate the incidence (implying risk at far below 4 per million). All the CVT cases identified had underlying co-morbidities.

It may well be a useful study to look at risk factors for Covid complications. It looks to be problematic to use it to compare vaccination risk to background Covid risk in the general population.

This is the Oxford study for anyone interested.

osf.io/a9jdq/

Thanks for that @SempreSuiGeneris

Interesting that all of the cases with covid had co-morbidities.

Just to clarify - all of the CVT cases had co-morbidities. Prompted to check the underlying data because 30% of total CVT count was in under 30s age group which looked odd and concerning for something being reported as a general population study.

@Rainbowsandstorms

The stats are completely out of date. The risk is now 13 in a million and for under 50s it’s much higher than that, at least 20 in a million. The risks of covid are low in the age groups most at risk from the vaccination. The MHRA are still refusing to give the number of people vaccinated in each of the age groups making it impossible to work out the actual risk. I’m confident they’d publish this information if it would encourage people to take AZ. There’s also a huge lack of transparency re the risk of second doses. I’m so fed up of people being belittled for being concerned about the risks particularly a risk where the incidence rates increase week on week. Especially given that most of the people who are scathing about anyone having concerns about AZ haven’t usually bothered to ensure that they have the most up to date statistics. This is an ever changing situation and otherwise healthy people who were at low risk from covid are dying as a result of the vaccination in larger numbers than I feel comfortable with. The clots associated with AZ have an 18 percent fatality rate and clots on the brain are serious just because the other 82 percent have survived it doesn’t mean that serious harm hasn’t occurred.

People keep posting this nonsense.

The risk of a blood clot from the AZ vaccine DOES NOT RISE WITH

@Cherrycee

Thanks for that *@SempreSuiGeneris*

Interesting that all of the cases with covid had co-morbidities.

Interesting that all of the cases with covid had co-morbidities.

I fail to see how you can make this claim based on that paper?

@strangeshapedpotato

That is simply not true. The clotting risk does increase as you move down the age groups, independent of the covid risk. Look at the Winton Centre data which the MHRA is using in its decision making.

I fail to see how you can make this claim based on that paper?

Badly phrased. I was responding to Sempre's post about the CVT cases (who are all CVTs following covid diagnosis).