Chances it will go ahead

[CooKooClock]

I have a wedding to go to on the 26th of June so a few days after restrictions are supposed to end. It’s cost a lot of money so far as it’s at a swanky hotel in London. I’ve bought mine and dh’s outfits and I’ve arranged childcare. I’m absolutely praying it goes ahead for the happy couple but also me and my dh are desperate for a night away. What are the chances do you think that it will go ahead?

How big is the wedding in terms of guest numbers?

I think they said total numbers so day and night is around 85/86.

You could get the night away definitely without the wedding. But you might get the wedding as a bonus look at it that way.

Staying in the hotel I can think will happen, but I could see the possibility of restrictions on large gatherings remaining for a bit longer. Close season for football, no large race meetings until August?, most festivals are small scale or cancelled.

Not a chance sorry.

Cases up 15% last week - at the time it was suggested the increase WASN'T because of the Indian variant spreading.

Up 20% this week - and it's believed that all of the increase is down to the Indian variant - if true, then that completely destroys the hypothesis that it is of similar contagiousness to the Kent variant.

The government don't want to announce that 21st June is PP today, because the evidence as far as the public is concerned is weak - but to anyone who understands exponential growth, it's a horror story unfolding - they're just waiting for bigger numbers to support the announcement - which they'll have in a couple of weeks.

So in my view, 95%+ probability that 21st June will be PP.

More significantly, I'm wondering how long they leave it before rolling back some "freedoms". Would require a U-Turn because they stated the roadmap was irreversible... I think the odds of THAT happening are about 50/50.

I was thinking it might go ahead but like it is currently with a maximum of 30 guests. Do you not even think that’s likely no?

@CooKooClock

I was thinking it might go ahead but like it is currently with a maximum of 30 guests. Do you not even think that’s likely no?

I think that's quite likely, but I wouldn't put my house on it!

I said 50/50 - actually I think the chances of restrictions being reimposed (i.e. more severe restrictions than current) before July is lower - maybe 1 in 4.

Cases are increasing exponentially. It is unlikely that the weddings or big gatherings will go ahead.
I feel sorry for the bride and groom and anyone lead to think everything is going to be ok after the 21st. Weren’t we promised an awesome Xmas? People have short term memories.

I thought we were aiming for lockdown by then. With everyone agreeing that with Cummings that it is terrible that Boris acted so slowly last time, this time they will surely go really early.