Third wave - do you think we’ll lockdown again? When will this end?!

[Notsure6]

Just that really. Keep seeing that we’re on the cusp of a third wave. What do you all think this will this mean for locking down or our current (limited) freedom?

Does anyone remember the speeches when they cancelled Xmas and brought in tier 4.
The old restrictions were fine and would have worked if it wasn't for original covid being replaced with Kent varinet which is therefore more transmissible..
Therfore alas we have cancel Xmas, shut down schools and start a 3rd national lockdown.

We told Indian one is 30_60% more transmissible than the Kent.
However on 17th May we unlocked a load of things including travel and telling school children they dident have to wear masks in class.
It got in via travel bow its embedded in community transmission.
Lots young people travel different towns for senior school.
Lots primary age kids will have younger non vaccinated parents.
Now things opened up and may half term coming up kids will be going short UK breaks and lots activities like restaurants, cinemas, bowling, swimming , soft play..

They already admitting it will spread and become most dominant.
They not doing anything to contain it to certain areas.
All we can do is sit and wait.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@savethegrannies,

And will you ‘sack’ yourself from these threads and your conspiracy theories if a third wave does happen?

Or is accountability just for other people?[/quote]
I'm offering opinions. These clowns are advising on rulings which are ruining peoples' lives. Bit of a difference.
Also, the conspiracy theorist thing is getting really boring now.
Please offer something more interesting and original.

Today 07:59 Dementedswan

DenisetheMenace
In the UK, no, we won’t.
AZ is 97% effective against the India variant, no results in yet with vaccine trials but they won’t be far off.

Uk residents are amongst the most privileged, highly protected people in the world. Possibly also the most complacent. Our 27 year old (no conditions ) received theirs this week. Enough of the handwringing.
Where have you got that 97% effective against India variant figure from?“

PM programme yesterday evening. Evan Davis was interviewing Chris Smith and he announced that is the finding of a large study of healthcare workers in India (current, in real time).

(“Where have I “got” this figure from”? You sound sceptical . I think Chris Smith is a pretty reliable source, don’t you?)

@DenisetheMenace

(“Where have I “got” this figure from”? You sound sceptical . I think Chris Smith is a pretty reliable source, don’t you?)

No not sceptical, it was a genuine question as a person fully vaccinated with AZ

I expect you can pick it up on iSounds. Yesterday’s edition.

Thank you, I'll have a look and see if I can find it. Fantastic news!

@savethegrannies,

‘These people’ are offering educated opinions to the government, who then make decisions.

What you fail to understand is that scientists offer opinions with a central forecast and error bars which represent best and worst case scenarios.

So, they not only give an educated opinion but also explain the risks around it abs to what extent they might be wrong.

The clowns are the keyboard warriors on here with strong opinions but little knowledge of maths or science.

@savethegrannies makes a good point. Sick to death of being labelled a covid denier or conspiracy theorists simply because I don't buy into the current fear mongering media hype. Some of the people being called covid deniers have HAD covid, me included. There's a massive difference between denying the existence of something and not being sucked into every fatalistic forecast.

In short, change the record, folks, it's getting tiresome.

Ah yes TheReluctantPhoenix the plebs must never question "the science". What elitist hogwash.
My god, half of Sage don't even have a science background for heaven's sake! The other half are conflicted up to their eyeballs over grant funding and what-not.
No wonder Vallance fought tooth and nail at the start of the pandemic to try ensure they remained anonymous. I'm guessing you'd go along with this kind of thing though ...

[quote KurtWilde]@savethegrannies makes a good point. Sick to death of being labelled a covid denier or conspiracy theorists simply because I don't buy into the current fear mongering media hype. Some of the people being called covid deniers have HAD covid, me included. There's a massive difference between denying the existence of something and not being sucked into every fatalistic forecast.

In short, change the record, folks, it's getting tiresome. [/quote]
the issue isn't denying COVID (I think relatively few people refuse to believe it doesn't exist), it's minimising COVID which is very common among posters here

@ollyollyoxenfree I don't think anyone is minimising it either. Would I be minimising it if I told you that for me and my family it was a very mild illness? My oldest family member had it and described it as 'a bad cold' is she minimising it? No. She's describing her experience of it whilst being fully aware that people have died from it.

But you can't deny the figures that say covid is now a fair way down the list of things that are causing death - and not just in the U.K. Why aren't people focusing on the positives that ARE happening instead of all the doom and fear mongering that MAY happen?

@savethegrannies

Ah yes TheReluctantPhoenix the plebs must never question "the science". What elitist hogwash. My god, half of Sage don't even have a science background for heaven's sake! The other half are conflicted up to their eyeballs over grant funding and what-not. No wonder Vallance fought tooth and nail at the start of the pandemic to try ensure they remained anonymous. I'm guessing you'd go along with this kind of thing though ...

But that's not what you're doing. Questioning science means reading the original publications and critically assessing them, which requires a reasonable amount of scientific literacy. Too many people see something they don't understand, and instead of assuming it might be because they are misinterpreting, assume it's all a big cover up or someone higher up had made a mistake.

Posting tweets and opinions articles of other peoples interpretations is not "questioning the science", you just repeating someones opinion which may be misinformed

[quote KurtWilde]@ollyollyoxenfree I don't think anyone is minimising it either. Would I be minimising it if I told you that for me and my family it was a very mild illness? My oldest family member had it and described it as 'a bad cold' is she minimising it? No. She's describing her experience of it whilst being fully aware that people have died from it.

But you can't deny the figures that say covid is now a fair way down the list of things that are causing death - and not just in the U.K. Why aren't people focusing on the positives that ARE happening instead of all the doom and fear mongering that MAY happen?

[/quote]
that's good your experience was mild and for most people it will be

but it's minimising to say (I haven't read all your posts so not assuming these are your statements) things like masks aren't needed, lockdown needs to end now etc etc when it's simply too early to say

it's not doom mongering, it's just being cautious (finally!) given that the UK clearly opened up too quickly in previously

Nope. We won't. Vaccines are working, cases are low, deaths and hospitalisations are very low. That's with kids being back at school for many weeks now.

Olly no I've never said masks aren't needed, we all wear them, we hand sanitise and we social distance. Didn't stop us catching covid from the GP surgery. What I think you'll find the majority of us 'covid deniers' are saying is that a further lockdown shouldn't happen, and if it does then you'll find many won't be stopped from seeing their family and friends again. I don't think that constitutes denying the existence of or even minimising the risks of covid.

Can I just add olly that it's a breath of fresh air to interact with someone who's opinion might differ from mine, but who isn't telling me I'm wrong or I've misunderstood or quoting modelling figures and science at me like I'm an idiot. There's so much rabid oppositional chat from posters on here it's hard not to get sucked into it sometimes, so thank you.

@KurtWilde

Olly no I've never said masks aren't needed, we all wear them, we hand sanitise and we social distance. Didn't stop us catching covid from the GP surgery. What I think you'll find the majority of us 'covid deniers' are saying is that a further lockdown shouldn't happen, and if it does then you'll find many won't be stopped from seeing their family and friends again. I don't think that constitutes denying the existence of or even minimising the risks of covid.

I think if we were in a situation like December, and you were still saying a lockdown wasn't needed, that would constitute minimising the risks of COVID

I think a third wave is very unlikely but it would need to be responded to with COVID suppression policies like lockdown.

@KurtWilde

Can I just add olly that it's a breath of fresh air to interact with someone who's opinion might differ from mine, but who isn't telling me I'm wrong or I've misunderstood or quoting modelling figures and science at me like I'm an idiot. There's so much rabid oppositional chat from posters on here it's hard not to get sucked into it sometimes, so thank you.

You too!! These threads can get heated to say the least!

@savethegrannies,

'Ah yes TheReluctantPhoenix the plebs must never question "the science". What elitist hogwash.
My god, half of Sage don't even have a science background for heaven's sake! The other half are conflicted up to their eyeballs over grant funding and what-not.
No wonder Vallance fought tooth and nail at the start of the pandemic to try ensure they remained anonymous. I'm guessing you'd go along with this kind of thing though ...'

But you have never questioned the science (posting links with no ideas or commentary of your own is just lazy). If you said that you believed the models were wrong because you believed something different, that is questioning the science.

In reality, all the observed outcomes have been within the range of expert forecast. However, you have just compared the outcomes with either median forecasts or worst case scenarios. Sometimes we do get positive surprises (thankfully) as well as negative ones.

We have to risk manage in the face of threats. That means we need to mitigate the potential worst outcome. If you decide to wait until confirmation of it, you have a disaster (as is happening in some parts of India). I know you don't care about the 'grannies' but, in a worst case scenario, many many over fifties would die as we ran out of oxygen and other basic equipment to treat COVID.

And, as for questioning 'the science', the actual scientists do this all the time. They are constantly backtesting models and adapting them to take into account new evidence. It tends to be non-scientists who have a very fixed mindset, as your posts indicate.

Other scientists have questioned the science but quickly get shut down, discredited and mocked for offering an alternative view. Science must be challenged robustly and the government should be listening to scientists with a wide range of views, given that the current climate has had such a detrimental impact on so many.

@Katyjayne72

Other scientists have questioned the science but quickly get shut down, discredited and mocked for offering an alternative view. Science must be challenged robustly and the government should be listening to scientists with a wide range of views, given that the current climate has had such a detrimental impact on so many.

do you have any examples of credible scientists (with a robust body of work backing up their claims) who broadly disagreed with a covid-related policy and was shut down or discredited?

I do not have any examples to hand but I have read a lot of alternative viewpoints from doctors and scientists which do not get taken into account as they do not support the current government narrative.

@Katyjayne72

I do not have any examples to hand but I have read a lot of alternative viewpoints from doctors and scientists which do not get taken into account as they do not support the current government narrative.

without any examples of the scientists/clinicians and their claims it's hard to comment

But there are many with alternative viewpoints that do not get taken into account, not because they differ from the mainstream but because the claims are making are not backed by robust science - they're based on poor quality research and biased reporting.

We're heading into summer and our vaccination program is going well so I can't see us having another wave like the last. A rise when things open up, yes but not like before. I dont think they'll lock us down again, they won't get enough compliance but I think we may see foreign travel bans for quite a while.