Alternatives to AstraZeneca vaccine for under 40s “will be considered” amid rise in blood clots Thread 3

[Whichjab]

New thread as the MRHA report is out today.

Note this is not an anti vaccination thread.

[quote IndigoC]The latest MHRA report for doses up to the 26th is out:

• 16 new recorded cases, 15 after a first dose, just 1 after a second dose.
• Data is based on only an additional 100,000 new first doses (presumably all 40 somethings) and 2.7 million second doses.
• Overall first dose risk is now 1 in 73,529.
• There are now 81 cases in the 40-49 bracket (with more to come I suspect) and the MHRA have added the following:

“The overall incidence after first or unknown doses was 13.6 per million doses. Taking into account the different numbers of patients vaccinated with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca in different age groups, the data shows that there is a higher reported incidence rate in the younger adult age groups following the first dose compared to the older groups. (18.0 per million doses in those aged 18-49 years compared to 10.2 per million doses in those aged 50 years and over). The MHRA advises that this evolving evidence should be taken into account when considering the use of the vaccine.”

Could this be a harbinger of them changing the age cut off?

• Overall second dose rate is 1.3 per million. They’ve added the following info:

All reported cases following a second dose are in patients aged 50 years and over, for whom the reported incidence rate is 1.4 per million second doses. Currently, no cases have been reported following a second dose in patients aged 18-49 years with an estimated 2.7 million in this age group having received both doses.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting[/quote]
Thanks

As suspected

And women v men? Will look later on.

Does that mean that there is more risk to the over 50's with the 2nd dose. Sorry if I seem dim but struggling to understand all the stats.

@Kaylasmum49

Does that mean that there is more risk to the over 50's with the 2nd dose. Sorry if I seem dim but struggling to understand all the stats.

That seems to be the (surprising) implication. But the numbers are so small for both groups that it could be a non statistically significant difference.

This just keeps getting worse!! It also says there has only been one case after the 2nd or am I reading that wrong? I have read on this thread that there are 17 cases so far so quite conflicting.

@Grellbunt

It’s currently at 189 cases in women v 156 in men. They’re still saying:

There is now some evidence that the reported incidence rate is higher in females compared to men although this is not seen across all age groups and the difference remains small.

@Kaylasmum49

This just keeps getting worse!! It also says there has only been one case after the 2nd or am I reading that wrong? I have read on this thread that there are 17 cases so far so quite conflicting.

It’s one newly reported case and 18 overall from 13.4 million second doses. No cases in the under 50s (yet). I actually think that’s very reassuring.

Aha

Certainly she seemed to think there might be a rule change

Reassuring to the under 50s? Not so much for the over 50's? I'm 55 tomorrow and want to cancel my 2nd vaccine tomorrow for the 2nd time.

Has there been any deaths after the 2nd one?

I hope they allow a free choice for all soon

Sending good vibes to all those worrying / frustrated

It's no under 55s in Germany apparently

@Kaylasmum49

Reassuring to the under 50s? Not so much for the over 50's? I'm 55 tomorrow and want to cancel my 2nd vaccine tomorrow for the 2nd time.

Yes, sorry, I meant reassuring to under 50s. But 1.4 per million is still low. And a very big sample size now for that age group at least. Ideally there’d be no cases at all but the risk is clearly much higher for first doses.

There is now some evidence that the reported incidence rate is higher in females compared to men although this is not seen across all age groups and the difference remains small.

Does anyone else have the feeling (I own it as such as I’m no statistician!) that there simply haven’t been enough cases to make any meaningful correlation with different sex and age groups?

I’m in Scotland. They had Pfizer there at my vaccine appointment but would only offer me the AZ. No choice in the matter!

I do hope this new sentence re incidence in under 50s vs over 50s means a rule change is on the way! It’s no good for the over 50s of course but if the age cut off keeps going up then at some point they might stop using AZ altogether?

I am hopeful that they will give those who have remained unvaccinated as they are only being offered AZ, a choice. If they want as many people vaccinated as possible, then it seems sensible to remove the things that are making people hesitate

@Schulte

I do hope this new sentence re incidence in under 50s vs over 50s means a rule change is on the way! It’s no good for the over 50s of course but if the age cut off keeps going up then at some point they might stop using AZ altogether?

Exactly! I was accused of not caring about the over fifties which is ridiculous but my point was that every time they change the age cut off it gives more justification to those who wanted to wait. Really hope a change is coming soon.

@AppleJane just to say I took your advice and treated myself to an enormous slice of cake afterwards!! (Chocolate and cherry, yum)

@MiniMaxi Ooooh chocolate and cherry!! I feel a baking day coming on, sounds delish! I've never made that before, I think I'll experiment.

Can you have a duvet day tomorrow if you need it? You're not gonna stay away are you

@AppleJane 🤣 I really should stay away it’s going to do me no good!!

Cake was amazing. Highly recommend. It actually had beetroot in it as well so was quite “earthy” but in a good way (not overly sweet).

No duvet day planned tomorrow - I had quite a strong reaction (normal side effects last time) so I’m hoping I’ll get off more lightly this time. We shall see! In any case I’m wfh these days so won’t have to get dressed or anything!

That's the great thing about wfh! Now I'm having ideas about converting my dairy free carrot and pineapple cake recipe to beetroot, cherry and chocolate!

Do it! (Quite pleased to have evolved this into a discussion about cake but don’t want to derail completely )

Bought a Wright's cake mix today - feel ashamed and boring!

@penni00 I used an M&S chocolate brownie mix tonight, I think I win the lazy baker award.

@IndigoC

You definitely don't win, because I haven't even got the cake mix out of the carrier bag yet :)