Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

Yes, one of the patients in hospital in NW is of school age with Indian variant

@HeftyOne that’s a pretty alarming statement to make as here-say without sources. I’m not goading you but I do think we have to be careful about the impact of what we information repeat that we’re not able to back up.

Yes, one of the patients in hospital in NW is of school age with Indian variant

Not sure this proves the above statement but also how do you know?

It isn't hearsay. It is being reported in the press as coming from DPH for Blackburn with Darwen.

Well a link would be helpful then...

Agree

Here it is

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/blackburn-faces-critical-next-two-20612789.amp

I don’t think it confirms anything either way for virulence of Indian variant in school age though.

I do t understand the panic either. It’s spreading in the unvaccinated, hospital admissions are down, deaths are really low and total cases are still down. I don’t understand why all the scaremongering.

@Needanewhat

Singapore seems to be saying this variant affects children more severely.

The government need to get their facts straight and be level about the bits they don't yet know, and keep updating us.

I am so tired of their over-confidence and lack of facts - they either need to squash this rumour or engage with it properly, not leave things like this to drift around on social media.

Singapore seems to be saying this variant affects children more severely.

Yesterday, Singapore had 38 new Covid cases. 4 of them were children. None are seriously ill. Today they have 28 cases. They have had 31 deaths ever. EVER. Stop posting this kind of scaremongering shit.

Thanks @MarshaBradyo.

Unfortunately I suspect this is the kind of headline we’re going to have get used to. Even though the percentages of young people getting seriously ill are tiny, those numbers will be more stark as the virus circulates through the young and the vaccinated adults are relatively protected. That’s before even considering a new variant.

@Bluntness100

I do t understand the panic either. It’s spreading in the unvaccinated, hospital admissions are down, deaths are really low and total cases are still down. I don’t understand why all the scaremongering.

There is a difference between panic and concern.

One of the issues is it appears to spread more easily amongst the vaccinated than other strains which is a concern.

You are completely misundersatnding the problem (which maybe why see why the government is concerned) - it is not only caused only by the unvaccinated and the risk is not only to the unvaccinated.

SAGE's models show that if there is a surge, most deaths/hospitalisations will be in people who HAVE been vaxxed explained here: twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1394286767440896003

One person ‘of school age’ in hospital does not mean the Indian variant is coming for kids. It could mean the person in question is seriously ill with something else plus have caught Covid. (You do realise lots of children are in hospital seriously ill at all times?) From the wording I strongly suspect it’s not a child, or they’d gleefully say so. School age could be up to 18.

I am so tired of their over-confidence and lack of facts - they either need to squash this rumour or engage with it properly, not leave things like this to drift around on social media

It’s virtually impossible to stop people coming on sites like this and posting scaremongering nonsense. It’s all over the Internet. People making up shit and posting it. I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve seen people post it’s absolutely 50 percent more transmissable , when the truth is it’s likely to be marginal, or cutting small snippets of sage comments to make it look like the worst case is fact.

No one can stop them. It’s not just the internet, even main steam media like the daily fail is scaremongering, the bbc, it’s all click bait headline grabbing bullshit.

I am so tired of their over-confidence and lack of facts - they either need to squash this rumour or engage with it properly, not leave things like this to drift around on social media

No I’m not misunderstanding it. No matter how much it’s not what you want to hear. I’m dealing in absolutes. What’s happening now. And one hundred percent factually the spread is predominantly in the unvaccinated. Fact.

Sage future modelling of ifs and maybes doesn’t change that.

@Bluntness100

I am so tired of their over-confidence and lack of facts - they either need to squash this rumour or engage with it properly, not leave things like this to drift around on social media

No I’m not misunderstanding it. No matter how much it’s not what you want to hear. I’m dealing in absolutes. What’s happening now. And one hundred percent factually the spread is predominantly in the unvaccinated. Fact.

Sage future modelling of ifs and maybes doesn’t change that.

I am not sure how you can deal in 'absolutes' when even those in charge of running the response are not certain what is going on, but maybe you should give them a call and offer them your input!

I am not sure how you can deal in 'absolutes' when even those in charge of running the response are not certain what is going on, but maybe you should give them a call and offer them your input

Quite easily. You look at the facts of what is occurring. Not future modelling.

I’m talking about what’s occuring now. You’re talking about future predictions. Which lets face it, based on sages previous forecasts, are not something you should bet your house on are they?

@Bluntness100

I am not sure how you can deal in 'absolutes' when even those in charge of running the response are not certain what is going on, but maybe you should give them a call and offer them your input

Quite easily. You look at the facts of what is occurring. Not future modelling.

I’m talking about what’s occuring now. You’re talking about future predictions. Which lets face it, based on sages previous forecasts, are not something you should bet your house on are they?

But what you are stating as 'facts' are not useful in helping us assess what is happening.

There is concern that this variant spreads more easily amongst the vaccinated (not the same thing as making them more ill) - so not all spreading amongst the unvaccinated - this is part of the reason the government will be worried www.itv.com/news/2021-05-15/covid-vaccines-almost-certainly-less-effective-at-reducing-transmission-of-indian-variant

It’s virtually impossible to stop people coming on sites like this and posting scaremongering nonsense

That’s exactly what you’re doing.

Modelling is based on what is happening now as well as what may happen in the future.

The success of the vaccination campaign is such that the vast majority of the most vulnerable are already vaccinated.

It’s reported that 30% of the Bolton cases have had at least one vaccination.

Bolton hospital that should say.

@Bluntness100

I am not sure how you can deal in 'absolutes' when even those in charge of running the response are not certain what is going on, but maybe you should give them a call and offer them your input

Quite easily. You look at the facts of what is occurring. Not future modelling.

I’m talking about what’s occuring now. You’re talking about future predictions. Which lets face it, based on sages previous forecasts, are not something you should bet your house on are they?

My thoughts exactly Bluntness. They've hardly got a shining track record.

@TatianaBis

It’s reported that 30% of the Bolton cases have had at least one vaccination.

I saw one reference to 20ish people in Bolton hospital. Is that all these percentages are based on?

The percentages will get revised if they change, but you can't ignore what you have. The models have a method for dealing with high or low levels of certainty.

30% is 30%. If next week it is still 30% that is more evidence, if it is 15% that is more evidence.

Yes 23 people is what I read.

Non stop news coverage I think.....all day today the repetitive tone is "urgent roll out of vaccine to young people....Indian variant.....etc". It appears designed to induce panic vaccinations? Variants were predicted at the start of all this by the whole scientific community as part of a normal virus lifecycle but the media likes to act shocked and call them double triple mutants. Obviously the media is being fed this tone at least in part by government.