How protected do you stay from 1 vaccine?

[Dandylioness1]

Both DH & I have been vaccinated. 1 dose of AZ.

We are in our 30’s.

I was vaccinated in group 6, but DH is a police officer and works next to a vaccination centre.
At the end of each day they had been contacting his offices to offer vaccines, DH jumped at the change, being public facing in his job.

We are both due our second vaccines in 3 & 4 weeks time and are really considering not having them.

We felt assured when most of what we’d read / seen on the news, was that the rare blood clots occurred after the first dose.
However we have since seen that they also occur after the second.

We have a very young son and the thought of something happening to one of us and leaving him is terrifying.

We equally don’t want to become ill with Covid but it seems that the data suggests our age group is very low risk, but higher risk from a fatal clot with the vaccine.

I feel completely cheated. When I had my first dose the clot news had just started to appear, but it wasn’t in the UK.

If I knew then what I know now, I definitely would not have had AZ.

If we don’t get our second doses, how protected do we stay from Covid?

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00432-3/fulltext

[quote Youdontknowwhatyoureonabout]www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00432-3/fulltext[/quote]
@Youdontknowwhatyoureonabout

Thanks. Can’t seem to open the link but will try search for it.

[quote Youdontknowwhatyoureonabout]www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00432-3/fulltext[/quote]
Doesn't really answer the OP's question.

The answer is that nobody knows how long the immunity from a single jab will last - yet.

We equally don’t want to become ill with Covid but it seems that the data suggests our age group is very low risk, but higher risk from a fatal clot with the vaccine.

This is false - you have the same risk as every other age group. The reason the younger groups are being offered alternatives now is because the risk to them from covid is lower esp when community infection levels are so low as they are now.

So for example the risk of dying from a clot is about 1 in 500,000 and let's say the risk of you dying from covid is 1 in 5,000 then the vaccine is lower risk right - but if the risk of CATCHING covid within the next 3 months due to low infection rate is 1 in 100 then the two risks are equivalent, the risks over this period become comparable.. BUT remember that the vaccine is likely to last far longer than 3 months, and infection levels may rise again at which point that 1 in 100 rapidly shrinks.

TBH I think it would be a mistake not to finish the course - officially you'll be classed as unvaccinated which may result in additional costs for you in the future, while the risk of clots appears to be even lower on second doses - which kind of makes sense - if your immune system was going to react, it would surely do so the first time it encountered the vaccine.

@bookworm1632

if your immune system was going to react, it would surely do so the first time it encountered the vaccine.

You’d think so, but there have been 6 cases of clots from second vaccine, which I believe there have been around 6 million administered.

The risk initially from the first dose was 1 in 1m then rose to 4 in 1m

It’s likely the risk will rise for the second once more people have had them administered.

6 in 6 million is a vanishingly small % though. The number will rise as more people get the second dose, but the % would surely be expected to stay similar.

I got my second dose to finish the course, otherwise I’m officially unvaccinated. By the time I waited at the back of the queue (as a vaccine refuser) for a pfizer or moderna jab, we’ll probably be into booster territory in the autumn anyway.

Are you a doctor? Because I’m not. So whilst I 100% advocate the right to be informed, I don’t have the knowledge to decide “do you know what. I think one is enough”
I would suggest talking to your GP if you’re anxious about not having the second jab and seeking advice from a medical professional who will be able to give you the information.

Clots are much more common in passengers who fly and women who take the pill. You’ve got more chance of being in a car accident or getting hit my a bus crossing the road than getting a clot from the vaccine. Are you going to stop driving or crossing roads?
I don’t mean that in a patronising way- but you need to explore and rationalise your fear and feelings. This is the first time in history we’ve ever had a blow by blow account of everything that’s “gone wrong” with a vaccine or drug, thanks to social media. That hasn’t ever happened before and is fuelling misinformation.

This is false - you have the same risk as every other age group. The reason the younger groups are being offered alternatives now is because the risk to them from covid is lower esp when community infection levels are so low as they are now.

No, the latest numbers have been consistently showing there have been more clot cases in the under 50s than the older age groups. This specific type of clot seems to be related to an immune reaction to the jab and younger people's immune systems are different. Then in addition the risk of dying from covid is smaller in the younger age groups and these two things together give a different benefits vs risks calculation based on age.

OP, I think the personal benefits vs risks calculation for a police officer would definitely still make me take the 2nd dose while no alternative is available. He is surely at an increased covid risk coming into contact with lots of people through his work?

[quote Dandylioness1]@bookworm1632

if your immune system was going to react, it would surely do so the first time it encountered the vaccine.

You’d think so, but there have been 6 cases of clots from second vaccine, which I believe there have been around 6 million administered.

The risk initially from the first dose was 1 in 1m then rose to 4 in 1m

It’s likely the risk will rise for the second once more people have had them administered.[/quote]
Slight correction - there have been 6 reported incidents.

Firstly, we still don't know if the handful of 2nd jab cases are connected to the vaccine or not - or could be late diagnosis 1st dose events....

Secondly, with the first jab, we weren't looking carefully for these events. We ARE now, so it's unlikely that within that 6 million we've missed any, so it's unlikely the risk will change substantially like it did with the first.

Small correction to your stats - the risk of a clot from the first dose is estimated to be about 1 in 100,000, with about 1 in 5 of those who get a clot dying (19%). Which is why I stated 1 in 500,000 risk of death.

My sister is in this position. I really think they should offer a second dose of something else. The likelihood of a clot after a second dose will go up as more get them. I have read as well that the chance of a clot is actually slightly higher in under 40s than older people.

You might find this helpful.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/health-56674796.amp

75% of the people who get this clot, survive. I believe that the pause in AZ administration was to alert GPs & create express treatment pathways once people reported symptoms.

Rare events do occur. I can't say, 'don't worry about it', but rationally, every day you leave your bed, an unfortunate RARE event could happen.
Statistically the safest way for us to live, collectively, is to all be vaccinated. It would only be safer for you to be unvaccinated if everyone else (or at least 90+%) are vaccinated, leaving minimal amounts of circulating virus in the community. As this may never be the case, as a non-statistician, I would think that fully vaccinated caries less risk (even though this number is not 0)

@Lemons1571

6 in 6 million is a vanishingly small % though. The number will rise as more people get the second dose, but the % would surely be expected to stay similar.

I got my second dose to finish the course, otherwise I’m officially unvaccinated. By the time I waited at the back of the queue (as a vaccine refuser) for a pfizer or moderna jab, we’ll probably be into booster territory in the autumn anyway.

You don't get sent to the back of the queue. I refused to consent to AZ this morning. Vaccination centre told me I'll be able to rebook tomorrow for next week (when they will be giving out Pfizer).

@Lemons1571

You don't get sent to the back of the queue. I refused to consent to AZ this morning. Vaccination centre told me I'll be able to rebook tomorrow for next week (when they will be giving out Pfizer).

I really wish I’d done this now, but at the time I didn’t have any reason to worry about AZ.

[quote Dandylioness1]@Lemons1571

You don't get sent to the back of the queue. I refused to consent to AZ this morning. Vaccination centre told me I'll be able to rebook tomorrow for next week (when they will be giving out Pfizer).

I really wish I’d done this now, but at the time I didn’t have any reason to worry about AZ.[/quote]
Sorry 🙈 I wasn't meaning to be unhelpful on your thread, I was responding to another poster.

I think they are trial mixed vaccines now right? So you may not need to go back for your second AZ?

your risk of blood clots with astra zeneca vaccine are 0.0004%
Your risk of blood clots with birth control pill is 0.05% to 0.12%
your risk of blood clots from smoking is 0.18%
your risk of blood clots from Covid itself is 16.5%

My 23 year old DS had his second dose of AZ last week without hesitation. HHe recognised that the odds of dying in a car accident en routeto the vaccine centre were 10 times higher than from the vaccine.

@LondonWFuck

I think they are trial mixed vaccines now right? So you may not need to go back for your second AZ?

It’s in 3 weeks. I doubt they will have done the trials by then.

[quote Dandylioness1]@LondonWFuck

I think they are trial mixed vaccines now right? So you may not need to go back for your second AZ?

It’s in 3 weeks. I doubt they will have done the trials by then.[/quote]
The trials have been ongoing since February regarding fixed vaccines. Results allegedly due out by the end of the month.

Mixed vaccines that should read, sorry

I think there will be some preliminary results from mixing Pfizer & AZ soon. I'm on the study which is AZ/Pfizer followed by the same or Moderna or Novavax. That has only just started. It will take a while for results to come through & for the combination to be licensed.

@Cookerhood

I think there will be some preliminary results from mixing Pfizer & AZ soon. I'm on the study which is AZ/Pfizer followed by the same or Moderna or Novavax. That has only just started. It will take a while for results to come through & for the combination to be licensed.

@Cookerhood

Have you had a dose of each then?

@Dandylioness1 the participants in the trial won’t know what different brands of vaccine they had been given. They might also have been given same brand vaccine from both doses but they don’t tell you as it’s part of the trial and research so participants give their none biased feedback on how they feel after the vaccine. They will get told next year about they were given, I know because my neighbour and her partner were part of this trial.

For this study they are only recruiting people who have already had their first dose 8-12 weeks ago, so with AZ or Pfizer as their first dose, so the study can be over (results known) more quickly. I had AZ for my first dose so for my second dose I had either AZ, Moderna or Novavax. I won't know until next February what I've had, although that might change if they recommend a booster (I'm 56) in the autumn or we need to know for vaccine certificates as at the moment vaccine certificates are for 2 doses of a licensed vaccine which this isn't. If necessary I'll just get a PCR test but it would be nice if it was recognised for the certificate.

@Dandylioness1 - as a policeman, your dh must surely have a greater taste for risk than the average person, as it’s hardly the safest job in the world. And you are in group 6. Tbh, I’m therefore not sure why you are quite so terrified of such a rare risk?

Also, @Dandylioness1, have you considered the risk of hospitalisation with covid and long covid on your ds? Death is not the only risk of covid.