Could we be heading for another lockdown?

[RedAzalea]

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1390390350779461638?s=08

have finally sat down to read this, someone at work was discussing it but i was only half listening....what do you think?

Coronavirus is here to stay. We can't spend the next decade locking down every few months, can we.

I'm a sheilder and can't be vaccinated.

The next person who has a go at me for being an attention seeking twat for wearing a lanyard that alerts people to me being highly medically vulnerable and medically unable to wear a facemask will lget more than they bargained for.

@Awwlookatmybabyspider

Coronavirus is here to stay. We can't spend the next decade locking down every few months, can we.

It depends. If it is a variant that the vaccine still works against, then of course we wont lockdown. But if there was a variant that killed lots of children of course we would lockdown. That is an extreme case, but simply saying we can never say never. Although I really hope not.

@penni00

TruelyWonder Where is the good preliminary data AZ has on this? AZ is poor against the South African variant. Why were the gov so slow to put India on the red list for travel? Was it because Boris did not want to cancel his planned trip there? Eventually, he was, it seems, pressured into cancelling it by scientists and Labour. TOO LATE though. Always the same, shutting the stable door when the horse has bolted.

Firstly I am nothing to do with Boris or politics. So no point asking me about any of that. I just have an interest in vaccines and covid.

The south African variant trial was not worth much thought really. It was only looking at AZ infection not hospitalisation and death. It had a 3/4 week gap between doses. We know AZ needs at 8 to 12 to reach full antibodies extra. The south African PM himself has said they needed a vaccine for there health workers. Which works quickly. So changed the plan to use one dose Janssen instead.

All the vaccines actually do the same thing they make antibodies and build T cell / immune system memory. Which means they will all work pretty similar to each other on variants. Do if one works other should too.

Use the link on this tweet to see the preliminary data re AZ and the India variant. This Twitter person is rather good at providing evidence to the actual trials etc. So you know it isn't just spin and all that.

mobile.twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1388450410713784320

TruelyWonder
That is a reassuring link, thank you. I shall sleep tonight now!
As you are interested in the vaccines, I don't suppose you have come across anything that indicates how long immunity might last from just one AZ dose (I have side effects from my AZ I had 7 weeks ago, and it seems unlikely I will be able to have the second dose)? I know nobody knows, but wondering if any scientists have estimated. I can't find anything.

@penni00

TruelyWonder That is a reassuring link, thank you. I shall sleep tonight now! As you are interested in the vaccines, I don't suppose you have come across anything that indicates how long immunity might last from just one AZ dose (I have side effects from my AZ I had 7 weeks ago, and it seems unlikely I will be able to have the second dose)? I know nobody knows, but wondering if any scientists have estimated. I can't find anything.

You are right nobody knows with both jabs. Until enough people lose their antibodies. So scientists are monitoring the very first people to get jabbed constantly.

As for just one jab that is difficult. The AZ will definitely be good for just over 12 weeks. Probably 16 at least. However I wouldn't do that. You won't lose all the antibodies like a cliff edge but they could drop a lot. The second dose is to add longevity.

Not sure exactly why you won't have the second dose. If you are saying advised not too or you mean schedule change. If the later I believe the experts are still saying to have the second jab. So far the evidence suggests if you have had one jab you should be low risk of clots with second. They are still monitoring this of course. Also you are still low risk of clots compared with lots of other stuff we take anyway. It is just case numbers being so very low and vaccination of the entire population that means more safety measures taken.

Have you had covid? I mean a proper positive test. Not you just thinking you definitely had it. The reason I as is there are a couple of studies involving one dose of Pfizer or AZ. These studies suggest the antibodies from one dose is enough if you have previously had covid. Maybe worth you Googling them if you have tested positive before. I can't say I know how valid those studies were. One was French and they have been all over the place with their vaccine approach.

Thank you. I am sure I haven't had covid. I have had mild headache and eyes sensitive to light since the jab. If it hasn't gone away by 12 week second dose time, I absolutely don't want the second dose. Even if my side effects clear soon, I instinctively feel it dangerous to have a second dose due to the way I have responded to the first dose.
Canada I think have 4 months between the doses. I don't quite know what people are meant to do if they can't have the second dose. I am pretty sure I would not be allowed a different vaccine as a second dose whilst the mixing and matching is still being trialed. I don't know whether I could wait for the autumn Pfizer booster, but can you miss out the second dose of AZ?

@Staffy1

Why do people get so aggressive about this topic? Of course no one is rubbing their hands with glee. We're allowed to be concerned and discuss our concerns.

Agreed

Afraid missing the second dose really isn't recommended. If you want to know more the Twitter person I linked to should have stuff. I remember her saying you must make sure you get your second jab.

I will try and find something about it now for you. If I find anything I will be back.

Sorry you have had a rough time with your jab❤

Well I read today that flu and pneumonia are killing more people than Covid now, but there's no mention of lockdown for them to strangely.

And even if the new variant kicks off, I can't see people being quite as compliant with lockdown as before; everyone is lockdown fatigued, and a good many of us vaccinated.

Thank you, I will have a go at twittering that person. I am feeling sorry for myself, it is horrible having the worrying side effects along with feeling I might not be able to complete my vac protection. Never expected this! Appreciate your posts, thanks.

I will not be complying with another lockdown. Shops may be closed so little choice there, but I WILL be seeing my family and won't listen to any government telling me I can't.

I already had hardly enough chance to say a proper goodbye to my dying Dad (death wasn't Covid related) so lockdowns can get to fuck

@penni00

Sorry honey I found what I was looking for and not what you want to hear.

1st dose: induces CD4+ "helper" T-cells- they do not neutralize infections but rather trigger the body's response to infections (macrophages, B-cells)

2nd dose: induces CD8+ “killer” T-cells- they are cytotoxic- this means that they are able to directly kill virus-infected cells

*Important note- CD8+ T-cells build up between your first and second dose. It will reinforce the protection your immune system started building after your first dose, hence partial protection ➡️ full protection.

mobile.twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1389218489450352644

It’s overtaking the Kent strain but that doesn’t automatically mean cases will spiral out of control. It just means that it has an advantage over some of the other strains. The situation in India isn’t automatically a result of this specific strain but rather other issues including lockdowns to control cases being more challenging due to poverty in some areas, a different health care system, low vaccination rates, high density population etc. In some areas of India it’s been the Kent strain causing problems. We are in a good position re vaccinations here and I believe AZ has been proven to be effective against this strain I’ve not yet seen the data for the other vaccinations. It is still a concern though and it’s so frustrating that the government haven’t done more to keep cases of this variant out and have watched it for so long before classifying it as a variant of concern, as if it does end up causing problems, it now has the potential to become to dominant strain. We are still at a delicate stage with lots of hope but also the potential for things to deteriorate too. My understanding is that while some variants may evade the vaccinations resulting in higher cases etc they should still in the vast majority of cases protection against serious illness and death. That said the vaccinations aren’t effective for everyone and we still have lots of under 40s and of course children unvaccinated which is why we need to continue to be careful as, as, much as we all want it to be over it’s not over until we have more of a global grip on things but we are in a much better position than we were thanks to the vaccinations.

Another lockdown won’t happen for this. There won’t be much compliance unless things are really bad, as in people dying in the streets bad. It looks like the vaccines work well against the variant so this won’t happen.

There’s a press conference at 1130am today with JVT, someone from JCVI and MHRA. Probably update on AZ vaccine but possibly will address the new Indian variant cases.

Deepti Zero? Might have know it would have been her.

Epidemiologists might know a lot about epidemics. In fact, they're sort of experts on it.

But it's not ALL about zero cases, is it? Not in the real world. It's about the economy, and mental health, and wellbeing, and pressure on hospitals, and vaccinations, and social interaction, and thousands of other factors which all have to be considered as a whole and balanced.

@penni00 I’ve been wondering the same thing. Is it AZ that you had? I’ve read that the first dose protects for at least 16 weeks and Ireland have now increased the gap between first and second doses to 16 weeks for AZ for low risk under 60s to give them more time to monitor the emerging data. Link is here www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/astrazeneca/immunity/

@TruelyWonder does the second dose information above just relate the MRNA vaccinations? I know the person who tweeted is a well respected source of information but also in the US where they aren’t using AZ. I’m also trying to get to the bottom of the purpose etc of the second dose of AZ as I’m in my 30s and feel uneasy about the second dose until there is more data. I’m aware Johnson and Johnson is the closest to AZ and that’s one dose but obviously the second dose of AZ is there for a reason but it would be great to fully understand the purpose of it when Johnson and Johnson have gone with just one. It’s all so complicated and unknown! Though appreciate we are lucky to live in a country where the vaccination programme has gone so well.

@PurpleDaisies

There’s a press conference at 1130am today with JVT, someone from JCVI and MHRA. Probably update on AZ vaccine but possibly will address the new Indian variant cases.

BBC is reporting that there are three subtypes of Indian variant, and one might be made a variant of concern

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57016110

I think we are far from needing another lockdown - obviously this could change if a vaccine-escaping variant emerged, but it's far from clear that this one does. It'll be based on number of cases and rates of transmission. If there is the start of a sustained rise, then I expect we'd initially see later stages of the route out of lockdown delayed, rather than needing to reimpose significantly stricter restrictions over the summer.

Even if there is another lockdown announced, nobody will stick to it. Nobody is staying away from their family anymore where I am. People are back at work, having people round to their house, going out with friends. It's over. We've beaten it. A huge portion of the country are vaccinated and cases are right down. It's time to live again.

Unless we get to seriously scary levels of hospitalisation / death there won’t be compliance with another lockdown.

Nothing to stop those who are concerned living like that if they want. It’s your life.

And that does affect children and young people more badly and kills more.

Is there any actual data to show this, that’s been properly adjusted for things like poorer health overall and lack of treatment options?

The Gov are pushing people back to normality

If they want another lock down in the future, they will struggle to gain compliance

@Gothichouse40

Michelle- do you know what is going on in Moray right now?

No, have just checked the 'tracker' for figures and yesterday said 32 new cases 0 deaths?

@Gothichouse40 genuinely asking as can't see anything leaping out from the figures thats massively different from elsewhere.