Alternatives to AstraZeneca vaccine for under 40s “could be considered” amid rise in blood clots 2

[Whichjab]

Just starting another thread as so much information still coming out. Interesting that Germany have just allowed AZ for all that want it.

Note, this is not an Anti-Vaccs thread. It is just a discussion about alternatives.

@Belladonna12 the counter to your accusation would be that it appears some prefer that no-one has a choice just because they didn't feel they had when they were vaccinated.

@AppleJane - to be fair, there is more than one thing a country can stick its head in the sand about. There are many countries in the world and in the EU being ostrich-like over one thing or another. Where one perceives their blind spots to be depends on ones pre-set opinion.

Refusing to accept vaccine risks is one thing, but there is more than one way to do a risk-benefit analysis, as it depends what you are factoring in as vaccine benefits. It is therefore not abnormal for different countries to have different cut off ages, even if they have similar current rates of infection. Your problem is you have lost trust, not that the MHRA is definitely in the wrong.

At the end of the day people have a right to be cautious, and some are just more cautious than others, especially when it comes to their health. It’s understandable some may also have a lack of trust considering how our government has delayed so many other decisions during this pandemic and other countries have adopted other policies in relation to AZ with the same data available to us. It’s bound to make cautious people question why and seek further information. Hopefully more data over the next couple of weeks or so will help further with decisions.

@AppleJane

You're not just talking to me *@Belladonna12*, you're also talking to all the people reading this thread and they can see what you're doing.

And nope, wrong again. I just trust the decisions of the countries who haven't stuck their heads in the sand and hoped it would all go away. Remind me again, have you been vaccinated?

And what am I doing apart from pointing out your hypocrisy? You keep arguing that it is wrong to use a benefits risk analysis and to take into account vaccine supply to restrict your choice but you're happy for a benefit risk analysis to be used to restrict choice for people a couple of years older than you.

The countries that made the decision to have an age limit did not do it after some careful risk assessment of the benefits versus the risks. The EMA did that with the evidence available at the time and they concluded that the evidence at that time showed the benefits outweigh the risks for all ages. The countries that introduced an age limit ignored that in an attempt to reduce vaccine hesitancy. It appears it didn't really work because older age groups then don't want AstraZeneca either and it is being wasted. That's why in Germany they are now offering it to anyone who doesn't want to wait. Canada lowered the age limit as well.

[quote SempreSuiGeneris]@Belladonna12 the counter to your accusation would be that it appears some prefer that no-one has a choice just because they didn't feel they had when they were vaccinated.[/quote]
I did have a choice and I would prefer it if everybody had a choice. However, there isn't enough alternative vaccines available. Therefore, I think it's reasonable to use a benefit versus risk analysis to decide who should receive the alternatives.

Is it definitely the case that there aren't enough alternatives though? Doesn't the U.K. have a crapload of Pfizer and loads more Moderna ordered?

As in loads of Pfizer available now, and Moderna in order?

@LondonWFuck

Is it definitely the case that there aren't enough alternatives though? Doesn't the U.K. have a crapload of Pfizer and loads more Moderna ordered?

I don't know how much Pfizer they've already given. I think they ordered 40 million doses but they have used a lot already and those that received it for the first dose will be getting it for the second. We ordered 17 Moderna but I don't think most of it will arrive before summer. There will be enough alternative vaccines eventually though.

This guy on Twitter has been keeping track of available doses based on Scotland releasing their numbers (it's then possible to calculate the numbers for the whole of the UK).

twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1391324973097234433?s=19

[quote nordica]This guy on Twitter has been keeping track of available doses based on Scotland releasing their numbers (it's then possible to calculate the numbers for the whole of the UK).

twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1391324973097234433?s=19[/quote]
That refers to what's been ordered rather than what's available though. I don't think we have received all the Pfizer we have ordered and very little Moderna has arrived so far.

The countries that made the decision to have an age limit did not do it after some careful risk assessment of the benefits versus the risks. The EMA did that with the evidence available at the time and they concluded that the evidence at that time showed the benefits outweigh the risks for all ages. The countries that introduced an age limit ignored that in an attempt to reduce vaccine hesitancy.

This is a bit of a misrepresentation.

It is not the EMA's job to set limits or dictate how vaccines can be allocated. They determined that there was a link between the AZ vaccine and CVST clots, but overall the benefits outweighed the risks. It was then up to the national regulators to choose what to do with that information.

In most European countries, AZ only makes up about a fifth of overall supply. It makes sense to direct that supply away from the groups most a risk from clots - why on earth wouldn't you if you have the option?

Thanks @Belladonna12. I had a quick sniff round Google but couldn't see any figures about how much is left.

@Cherrycee

The countries that made the decision to have an age limit did not do it after some careful risk assessment of the benefits versus the risks. The EMA did that with the evidence available at the time and they concluded that the evidence at that time showed the benefits outweigh the risks for all ages. The countries that introduced an age limit ignored that in an attempt to reduce vaccine hesitancy.

This is a bit of a misrepresentation.

It is not the EMA's job to set limits or dictate how vaccines can be allocated. They determined that there was a link between the AZ vaccine and CVST clots, but overall the benefits outweighed the risks. It was then up to the national regulators to choose what to do with that information.

In most European countries, AZ only makes up about a fifth of overall supply. It makes sense to direct that supply away from the groups most a risk from clots - why on earth wouldn't you if you have the option?

I didn't say that it wasn't up to the countries to choose. However, I can't think of any other occasion when they haven't followed the EMA's advice regarding whether the benefits of the drug outweighed the risks. I'm not giving an opinion on whether they should or shouldn't have done it. I am just making the point that it was not because they judged the risks to outweigh the benefits.

Belladonna it's both as Scotland publishes weekly numbers to show what they have received and it's a fair assumption they get percentage of UK deliveries relative to their population. The UK currently has a stockpile over and above what is needed for 2nd doses.

@nordica

Belladonna it's both as Scotland publishes weekly numbers to show what they have received and it's a fair assumption they get percentage of UK deliveries relative to their population. The UK currently has a stockpile over and above what is needed for 2nd doses.

Good.

@nordica

Belladonna it's both as Scotland publishes weekly numbers to show what they have received and it's a fair assumption they get percentage of UK deliveries relative to their population. The UK currently has a stockpile over and above what is needed for 2nd doses.

Good to know!

Canada lowered the age limit as well.

Spoke to friends in Canada today. They have had 1st dose of AZ but apparently there is unlikely to be supply for 2nd doses. The current advice is get AZ for 1st shot if you are high risk in a high prevalence area but otherwise hold off until the supply of Pfizer comes through.

Just confirmed via google.

www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/naci-chair-says-advice-not-meant-to-give-astrazeneca-recipients-vaccine-remorse-1.5417053

I did have a choice and I would prefer it if everybody had a choice.

@Belladonna12 it's noted that you have called me a hypocrite. What I don't understand about your statement above is, do you mean you haven't had AZ? Do you mean you live in a place where you didn't have to or are of an age where you could choose?

If you're going to throw around accusations you at least should be honest about that.

‘ I didn't say that it wasn't up to the countries to choose. However, I can't think of any other occasion when they haven't followed the EMA's advice regarding whether the benefits of the drug outweighed the risks. I'm not giving an opinion on whether they should or shouldn't have done it. I am just making the point that it was not because they judged the risks to outweigh the benefits’

So WHY then do you think all those European countries set the age limit? If it wasn’t due to their perception or understanding of the risk?

On the old thread there seemed to be some kind of agreement that the number of VITT events was averaging approx 1 per day recently. Could anyone explain how that conclusion was arrived at? If it was extrapolated from yellow card reporting do we have any confirmation that these cases are verified? Thanks. I’m 41, AZ hesitant and so far haven’t been offered an alternative.

@FourOnTheHill I think it was to do with the YC reporting - assume it the difference between the most recent two reports’ cases.

Not sure that’s an accurate way to look at it though as there might be old data being reviewed and included - I guess most accurate to view it as total number of cases since early Jan?

Over the two last weeks in April, 17 deaths from this clotting were reported via the yellow card system. The number of reported cases is higher, something like 70-80 cases were reported in those two weeks. Note that we do not know WHEN these cases happened, there’s a delay between these incidents and them being reported.

(Hmm that said I think there have been 126 days ish since AZ started being given and 209 cases or thereabouts - not sure my maths is right though)

That said it does need to bear in mind total doses given which is enormous

@Schulte

Over the two last weeks in April, 17 deaths from this clotting were reported via the yellow card system. The number of reported cases is higher, something like 70-80 cases were reported in those two weeks. Note that we do not know WHEN these cases happened, there’s a delay between these incidents and them being reported.

IIRC the average age of 47/55 remained the same so some were suggesting the deaths could be corresponding to the age group currently being given first doses at that time.

That’s right @AppleJane... in this week’s report we expect to see more cases in the recently vaccinated 40-49 age group as those reports start to come through.