Alternatives to AstraZeneca vaccine for under 40s “could be considered” amid rise in blood clots

[Whichjab]

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/astrazeneca-vaccine-side-effects-blood-clots-under-40-b931498.html

This is concerning, especially as there is limited research into combining vaccinations. I feel that the trust in vaccination is being eroded. I have always been pro vacc but feeling much less so atm.
I'm not sure I will get my second jab now.

@AppleJane

The yellow card data is not being broken down into age, sex, health and date of vaccine for those experiencing blood clots. This makes it impossible for us to calculate true risk.

I have seen some online trying to crunch the numbers by using the data released from 5th April to 14th April when there were ten additional deaths recorded and assuming they were mainly from the 45-49 age group receiving a vaccine the week previous they have taken the number of first vaccines administered within the same time frame and come up with a risk of 1 in 10k to 1 in 20k. The yellow card data does state that the average age is 47.

We cannot know if those stats are accurate but as it’s obvious now that we are a long way from a one in a million risk it’s time for transparency from the government else the public will make their own calculations, right or wrong. Releasing the data would quickly put an end to this speculation.

I have quoted this before on this thread. Germany have given just under 4.8 Million first doses of AZ and they have been pretty transparent with the cases if blood clots. So their data should be quite representative of the risks. You can find the breakdown by age and sex here:

www.pei.de/EN/service/press/latest-news/latest-news-node.html;jsessionid=320E087041FADF6CE9733D59E368D370.intranet241

Does the risk go away if it doesn't happen or does each booster carry a new risk if that makes sense?

Wasn't Novavax meant to become available soon too? That could help with alternatives for the under 45s.

What would you do with all the raw data?

How would you even start analysing it, beyond the most basic groupings.

And the initial analysis is also published weekly, later more detailed analysis is published across many other regulatory groups. It takes time to complete meaningful analysis. It is all in the public domain, even if it is really esoteric.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting

It would make a big difference to me to know if those additional ten deaths 'reported' were recent vaccinations of 45-49 yr olds or were older deaths of say 80 yr olds only just being added to the statistics.

@User657849
Oh I agree - context is so important. I just chose 1 example chart primarily for discussion on the blood clot risk by age showing EU has a reported a overall risk higher than that shown in the UK. I should have clarified my post by saying that there are 9 charts in that report - showing risk of Covid causing hospitalisations/ICU admissions/deaths by age group for low, medium and high infection rates. Risk v benefits should definitely be in context to prevailing conditions at the time along with what vaccines are available. Example as you said being India totally different to UK at this point in time.

@CuriousaboutSamphire
What would you do with all the raw data?

How would you even start analysing it, beyond the most basic groupings.

And the initial analysis is also published weekly, later more detailed analysis is published across many other regulatory groups. It takes time to complete meaningful analysis. It is all in the public domain, even if it is really esoteric.

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting" target="_blank">https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting

Do you know if government/MHRA are releasing more up to date versions of these charts that were shown in early April? I've not been able to find any and I think these were really useful and understood by the majority. I'm definitely not qualified enough to make meaningful sense of the esoteric information out there!

It’s not apples and oranges. EMA table clearly states number of blood clots in 100,000 first vaccinations. 2.1 in 100,000 for my age group. One in 50,000. You get the same number if you look at the German raw data only, for example. And if the MHRA gave us a breakdown by age groups I’d bet money on that it would look pretty similar too.

The data isn't published by the government so yes, the usual data sources will publish the updates. If we are lucky those charts will also be updated - general opinion of them has been so positive it would be odd if they didn't do something similar - they are, after all, just the latest generation of all the data sets we've had over the last year.

The more data they have to crunch the easier the charts will be to read. Even the ONS has got a bit more creative over time 😊

Ooh! I started that with:

I bloody hope so, they made much more immediate sense than any other data we have been handed from a podium.

BTW also found it interesting that from 50 yrs onwards and then even older age groups the EMA numbers show a much reduced risk. That would support the decision many countries have made of restricting AZ to over 55s or older.

I'm beginning to wonder if the uptake for 45 to 49 is not that high. I see the goverment is now releasing a TV ad campaign to get people under 50 to take vaccine.

@Sebw

I'm beginning to wonder if the uptake for 45 to 49 is not that high. I see the goverment is now releasing a TV ad campaign to get people under 50 to take vaccine.

I'm hoping that if it isn't the government will either raise the age cut off to 50/60 to match other countries or offer a choice.

I truly believe that they are so intent on vaccinating the whole UK that they will eventually allow those refusing AZ an alternative rather than leaving them unvaccinated.

@Sebw - by week ending 18th April, about 60% of 45-49 year olds had received their first dose and 90% of first vaccinations were in that age group. I think that’s the most recent published data. I suspect it’s the 30 and 20 somethings they’ll have the hardest job convincing to get vaccinated.

You'd have to persuade a few different and independent health organisations to throw away their data analysis for that to happen. It's not an opinion poll.

Anyone know what the longest period between jab and clotting symptoms is? Really hard to find that info and it would definitely help to set some minds at ease!

@Macjonald

Anyone know what the longest period between jab and clotting symptoms is? Really hard to find that info and it would definitely help to set some minds at ease!

Isn't it 8 to 20 days

@Walkaround
Risk of a healthy 30 year old woman in UK dying of Covid: 1 in 250 000
(data as at 12/4/21 - risk would be higher during a peak)
Risk of healthy 30 year old woman dying following AZ vaccine (on the Norwegian experience ie. worst case scenario): 1 in 40 000

PS the orange and blue dot MHRA graph people keep posting is misleading. It doesn't distinguish between clinically vulnerable and healthy cohorts and is therefore meaningless for a healthy person trying to calculate their risk.

It isn't that hard to understand. It was missed initially

I find that very hard to understand. The general feeling outside the UK is that they deliberately didn't report it. Once the EU started to report it, the UK stated they hadn't had any reports of clotting and that story slowly unwound to say that they did.

As an aside, everyone here keeps asking whether its ok to take the second jab of AZ. But what about subsequent booster shots which albeit Pfizer reported, will be needed every six months.
I'm in Ireland and AZ is now only offered for 61-69 year olds and the uptake isn't good.. There are some concerning reports of offering the second AZ jab to those who had the first one but I'm unsure if that will include the cohort outside of the 61-69 age bracket. There haven't been enough trials to indicate if mixing the vaccines is safe.

It’s sad but many richer countries are currently dumping their unused AZ doses on poorer countries.

Do you really think that countries like Papua New Guinea, India and Brazil care about a tiny risk of serious side effects of a vaccine when people are (literally, in the case of India) dying from Covid in the streets because the healthcare system is overwhelmed? I don’t think they would look on it as being “sad” to have access to donated vaccines (I’ll ignore your inflammatory use of the word “dumping”).

I'm 48. My understanding of the EMA data is that, with low infection rates, my risk of dying from covid in any four month period is about 1 in 100,000. The risk of ICU or other hospital admission is obviously higher, and all of the risks would increase significantly if infection rates rise.

My risk of getting an unusual blood clot associated with the vaccine is 2.1 in 100,000, so more than twice as high as my risk of actually dying from covid if cases remain low. However, it is my understanding that around only around 20% of people have died from the unusual blood clots, so the overall risk posed by the vaccine is definitely lower (approx 0.4 in 100,000), even if covid infection rates remain low. If the rates increase, then the balance tips even further in the vaccine's favour.

It seems like a no brainer for people in my age group to take the vaccine, no?

I read clotting from AZ was reported as 1:40,000. That was reported from Denmark. They aren't using AZ anymore and therefore, have no reasons to over or under report any cases.

Do you really think that countries like Papua New Guinea, India and Brazil care about a tiny risk of serious side effects of a vaccine when people are (literally, in the case of India) dying from Covid in the streets because the healthcare system is overwhelmed? I don’t think they would look on it as being “sad” to have access to donated vaccines (I’ll ignore your inflammatory use of the word “dumping”).

Brazil is actually seeing a low uptake for 2nd jabs & one reason given is because of side effects from the first.

Well paralysed I’m not sure what you mean by no brainer as what is your risk of getting covid in the first place? That’s not the same as voluntarily having a jab which from a risk perspective. You could also lower your covid risk further by losing weight (if you need to), exercising (but not too much), optimising vitamin d, perhaps taking an omega 3 oil and multi including zinc. Equally what is the recovery rate in full from this platelet issue? Do people who recover fully recover or are they left with longer term problems? There is also the huge unknown about going covid

See how individual it is?

Perhaps the AZ vaccine is a “no brainer” if you are at high risk from covid or care for someone who is.

Otherwise I feel it’s a finely balanced assessment for each person with the further caveat that we are still assessing data so numbers could still change further. This is the bit that unnerves me. With the MHRA missing it initially I have utterly lost faith in them

@paralysedbyinertia

I'm 48. My understanding of the EMA data is that, with low infection rates, my risk of dying from covid in any four month period is about 1 in 100,000. The risk of ICU or other hospital admission is obviously higher, and all of the risks would increase significantly if infection rates rise.

My risk of getting an unusual blood clot associated with the vaccine is 2.1 in 100,000, so more than twice as high as my risk of actually dying from covid if cases remain low. However, it is my understanding that around only around 20% of people have died from the unusual blood clots, so the overall risk posed by the vaccine is definitely lower (approx 0.4 in 100,000), even if covid infection rates remain low. If the rates increase, then the balance tips even further in the vaccine's favour.

It seems like a no brainer for people in my age group to take the vaccine, no?

As someone mentioned, personal risk factor. At 48, you have a slightly elevated risk compared to younger groups, and the AZ vaccine at your age is likely a ‘no-brainer’ if you are obese, have underlying health issues or live with someone who is. Also, I believe women are more at risk than men (and men are at higher risk at COVID)

It’s really very individual.