Why is the AZ vaccine no longer being offered to under 30s?

[Icancelledthecheque]

Just wondering if I need to be concerned... I potentially have an AZ vaccine tomorrow and I’m 32, so not much older! Does anyone know please?

The UK has vaccinated 40% of the adult population with Oxford Astrazeneca. There were more reported covid deaths in the UK just on Wednesday 21st March 2021 than from these rare clotting events. More people die every week in the UK from road traffic accidents. More women die from childbirth or causes associated with pregnancy every 3 weeks in the UK than in over 4 months of giving this vaccine.

There is data reported on cases, but with so few cases there isn't much to go on except that it's slightly more likely with younger people:

• Ages of those getting the clots have ranged from 18 to 93, it is not only young people.
• 55% were women, but more women than men have been vaccinated so this doesn't suggest sex is necessarily a factor.
• 46% were CVST and the rest were other types of thromboembolic (clotting) effects.

If people don't feel able to take this small risk to reduce their risk of getting covid then they should leave it for someone else who is happy to take it. It does mean having to wait for a while until there is broader availability of other vaccines and to accept the higher risk of catching and becoming unwell from covid in the meantime. None of the vaccines are risk-free, nor is any medication; but those risks aren't usually scarily plastered all over the news the day before you start.

I'm going to accept the AZ vaccine if offered but I think some of the comparisons don't add up especially for those of us in our 30s. For most of the past year we've been told the risk of dying of covid is absolutely tiny for us (I'm 38). I totally understand the balance of risks tips firmly in favour of taking the AZ vaccine if you are 50 or 75, but if you are 35 then it's not as clear cut.

Funnily enough I don't own a car and only get in a car probably a dozen times a year, haven't taken a long haul flight in over 10 years and don't have or plan to have children... so a lot of these "X is more risky and you do it anyway" comparisons don't apply to me at all.

Obviously on a population level I understand the risks vs benefits. But it's not the same for each individual. Still, what can the government or JCVI do if they don't have enough alternative vaccines for everyone under 40? I don't want to get seriously ill from covid either...

Your risk of dying from covid if infected at 38 is certainly low @nordica. Mortality rate for ages 30-39 calculated in January as 289 deaths per million (www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-reported-sars-cov-2-deaths-in-england/covid-19-confirmed-deaths-in-england-report#age-and-sex-distribution). That's compared with the increased number from the updated yellow card reporting of 1.58 deaths per million from the vaccine. It's the difference between a very low number or a very very low number.

@Sebw

Does anyone know why the MHRA wont release more details about the cases of clots like age band, gender and the presence of an underlying health condition. But we get this exact breakdown in cases and deaths from Covid.

As far as I can tell it's because the numbers are so small.

One example from the JVCI was that looking at the raw data without understanding the whole context and all the confounding variables you'd think that women of a certain age had a hugely inflated risk from the vaccine. But a quick cross reference to the % if women vaccinated brought that increase down to almost zero. So, as the data is not clear, does not show much differentiation bar a small increase for age they can't show us anything that makes sense - and that some scaremongering journo won't go to town on.

Another is that the numbers are so few that it is more possible to identify individuals, and some journo would. So they are not releasing any of the raw data as a matter of confidentiality.

There will be more reasons I suppose. But those 2 stuck in my memory, made sense.

Funnily enough I don't own a car and only get in a car probably a dozen times a year

Presumably you do cross roads though. Which also carries risk.

I think the issue for me is that the risk keeps changing. The EMA now puts it at 1 in 100000, and 2.1 per 100000 for people in their 40s.

@MRex

Your risk of dying from covid if infected at 38 is certainly low *@nordica*. Mortality rate for ages 30-39 calculated in January as 289 deaths per million (www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-reported-sars-cov-2-deaths-in-england/covid-19-confirmed-deaths-in-england-report#age-and-sex-distribution). That's compared with the increased number from the updated yellow card reporting of 1.58 deaths per million from the vaccine. It's the difference between a very low number or a very very low number.

I’m sorry but it’s not valid to compare deaths from AZ vaccine to deaths from Covid. That is apples to oranges. The proper comparison to AZ Covid vaccine deaths is deaths from other equally effective Covid vaccines, such as Pfizer and Moderna.

Even with most risky approved vaccine, it is always going to cause fewer deaths than the disease it is vaccinating against or it would never pass initial trials. So it’s disingenuous to frame it as a risk to benefit choice as if there were only one vaccine in existence.

There isn’t. This is a situation where we have several vaccines, some of which are more safe than others, but equally effective against Covid. It’s not wrong to express concern about being coerced into accepting a less safe vaccine. And stirring up fear of death from Covid, to encourage people to accept unecessary additional risk is a form of coercion.

The proper comparison to AZ Covid vaccine deaths is deaths from other equally effective Covid vaccines, such as Pfizer and Moderna.

No, because there isn’t sufficient supply of those vaccines to offer them to all.

For the next six months (broad guess) then the proper comparison IS deaths from COVID.

I'm 33 and am so pleased to have had the AZ vaccine today. A friend told me they were offering it to over 30s at a mobile centre near me so popped along and got it. Really happy as was expecting to be waiting a while yet before being eligible.

Literally not worried one bit about the minuscule risk of a blood clot and feel very very grateful and privileged to live in the UK where it's been possible for me to already have a vaccine. It actually shows how privileged we are, that people have the luxury of worrying about which vaccine they will receive. I hope very much for the rest of the world, especially countries like India where they are struggling so badly right now, to be able to do the same.

@TheKeatingFive

The proper comparison to AZ Covid vaccine deaths is deaths from other equally effective Covid vaccines, such as Pfizer and Moderna.

No, because there isn’t sufficient supply of those vaccines to offer them to all.

For the next six months (broad guess) then the proper comparison IS deaths from COVID.

Sorry, but that is propaganda designed to make you think the choice is between AZ vaccine and death by Covid.

There are sufficient supplies. Other countries (Denmark, Norway, Israel,) have been disposing of their AZ vaccines and ordering more of the safer vaccines and the companies are increasing manufacturing capability. The EU has decided to cancel their order of 100 million AZ vaccines and is switching to Pfizer for the deliveries scheduled later in the year....

The sad and unethical thing is that many countries who haven’t publically halted using AZ or cancelling orders are behind the scenes donating their AZ ones to the Covax program for poorer nations while keeping the safer ones for themselves.....

As an example, Australia has told AZ to send their latest order to Papua New Guinea...

There are sufficient supplies. Other countries (Denmark, Norway, Israel,) have been disposing of their AZ vaccines and ordering more of the safer vaccines and the companies are increasing manufacturing capability.

There aren’t immediate supplies, no.

For the next six months or so (rough ballpark) it IS what you’re offered or risk COVID.

Like it or not, the UK bet heavily on AZ. Far more so than the other countries you mention. More supply will be available in time, but this is the case right here, right now.

As an example, Australia has told AZ to send their latest order to Papua New Guinea

An option available to a country with zero COVID and time to wait for supply. They’ve also said that their vaccination programme will be significantly delayed as a result of their policy change.

Not really an option for the U.K.

Comparing the risk from the vaccine to the risk from covid doesn't really work either because you're only at risk of dying from covid if you catch it in the first place. Again the level of risk will vary individually. If you're a teacher, factory worker or taxi driver then your risk of catching covid and therefore dying from it is much higher than if you can wfh or are a gardener or someone else works exclusively outdoors on your own. The vaccine you either have or don't have, so you're choosing to take the risk.

Of course we could sit here all night coming up with a list of every other risky thing in life, from crossing roads to being hit by lightning or choking on your dinner... But I think it's fair to acknowledge that current evidence does show the AZ vaccine caries a slightly larger risk than the other vaccines available and if the UK had a larger supply of Moderna/Pfizer, they would probably make the same decision other countries have done.

Comparing the risk from the vaccine to the risk from covid doesn't really work either because you're only at risk of dying from covid if you catch it in the first place.

Plenty of calculators out there that will do that calculation (catching and dying) for you.

But importantly, almost no one can guarantee they wont get COVID.

It is an option for the U.K. Don’t you find it a bit odd that no one in U.K. Government has even approached Pfizer or Moderna about increasing supply? Canada is in third wave and has done so with result that Pfizer is doubling their supply to them starting this month- an increase in millions of doses. Canada are much bigger than the U.K. and logistics of transport much further and harder than to U.K.

But U.K. hasn’t even asked? I know AZ is “made in Britain” and cheaper per dose and all that but it seems odd to accept extra unnecessary vaccine deaths without even asking if more safer ones could be supplied. Is it a lack of public money? How much is the life of a middle aged woman worth anyway? (So far that’s been the most affected demographic).

But U.K. hasn’t even asked? I know AZ is “made in Britain” and cheaper per dose and all that but it seems odd to accept extra unnecessary vaccine deaths

How many U.K. deaths from AZ blood clotting have their actually been? Genuine question.

They’re applying cost/benefit analysis, like everything else. Life is not risk free. Do you ever read the list of potential side effects from medication we all take regularly.

There obviously is a supply issue. Look at the 40s waiting for vaccine thread. There are loads of people eagerly waiting to become eligible and many still unable to book (friends of mine included).

If there's no supply issue and AZ isn't wanted, why is the EU looking to sue AZ for supply shortfalls?

But importantly, almost no one can guarantee they wont get COVID.

True but think on this. If it is true there is no guarantee that you won’t get Covid, similarly it must also be true that there is no guarantee that you will get Covid.

However, if you accept a vaccine, it is guaranteed that you are also accepting the risk of that vaccine’s side effects. You can only avoid vaccine side effects by not getting the vaccine, same as you can only avoid Covid risks by not getting Covid. Vaccines are largely in our control, Covid not so much, it’s more luck I’d say. People tend to be more risk averse about the things they can control, than the things they cannot control.

So it is somewhat understandable that a Covid negative person who has successfully not caught Covid for 16 months might think they can successfully continue to avoid the virus for another 3 months or so until the AZ blood clot causes are properly researched and at risk groups identified or AZ vaccine halted and alternative vaccines offered as other countries have already done...

It’s not an irrational opinion for many to have.

@Tealightsandd

There obviously is a supply issue. Look at the 40s waiting for vaccine thread. There are loads of people eagerly waiting to become eligible and many still unable to book (friends of mine included).

If there's no supply issue and AZ isn't wanted, why is the EU looking to sue AZ for supply shortfalls?

They aren’t. An Irish official stated that and media broadcast it, but the EU Commission stated today that it is not true, there are no plans to sue AZ for vaccine shortfalls.

However, if you accept a vaccine, it is guaranteed that you are also accepting the risk of that vaccine’s side effects.

Which are tiny. Certainly no more significant than the risks we take when taking the pill, lots of common medications, having an anaesthetic. The only difference is that we’ve normalised those. We don’t cope well with the new,

But if people want to wait six months and either risk Covid or shield during that time, then that is their choice. Perhaps they’ll be offered something different then or perhaps they won’t. I doubt it’ll be a top priority for the government.

There obviously is a supply issue. Look at the 40s waiting for vaccine thread

Yes an issue in the supply line to vaccination hubs and numbers of trained staff to administer vaccines. You can have millions of doses in deep freeze but take months to vaccinate because you only have ten thousand staff to process and jab people....

Would it not also be the case that you should compare the side effects risk with the current risk of getting Covid.

Its not very prevalent at the moment. Of course this could change if we get a third wave.

‘How many U.K. deaths from AZ blood clotting have their actually been? Genuine question.’

33 so far. And counting. I agree there seems to be no effort whatsoever by the government to try and purchase more mRNA vaccine. Perhaps they are banking on Valneva. Risky.

The risk of clots is 8 times higher with Covid than from any rare vaccine side effect. Also stroke risk for younger people increased with Covid.

www.hriuk.org/health/your-health/lifestyle/people-with-coronavirus-are-at-risk-of-blood-clots-and-strokes

However, higher rates of strokes in patients with COVID-19 is somewhat unusual because it also seems to be happening in people under 50 years of age, with no other risk factors for stroke.