I dont think life will be normal for years and years

[ssd]

Its the pictures coming out of india, with the recent festival and hundreds of people crammed together, during a second covid wave. This virus will just mutate forever, its too global to contain. Its just never going away. What the hells going to happen to us or our kids futures?
I can't see a way out of this. Science can't catch up, its too far spread to ever get a handle on it.

[Cornettoninja]

Ok - it’s quicker to just check the actual UK figures than dig through my bookmarks- it’s actually around 10% admittance rate (-approximately 400k admitted out of approximately 4 million cases). Apologies for that.

My point still stands that a 1% fatality rate can’t be taken in isolation.

[TheKeatingFive]

I had a look at figures from my country (ROI) and based on the data, someone of my age (40) has a 2% chance of hospitalisation with Covid.

[Quartz2208]

Yes 20% seems high - at its peak the highest number of patients admitted was around 3800 to a 65000 case rate - I cant see any articles on it but I would say it seems to be around 6-8% max

[CloudPop]

There have been 4.4m covid cases in the UK. Total hospitalisations in the UK 461,122

[TheOneWithTheBigNose]

There have been 4.4m confirmed cases. The actual number is far higher.

[FrankChurchillsHaircut]

The 20% hospitalisation was at a time when the mild cases of Covid were not being noted as there was little to no testing. It was 20% of the obviously symptomatic. Not including people with a sore head or who'd mysteriously list their sense of smell etc.

[RhubarbTea]

@TheOneWithTheBigNose

There have been 4.4m confirmed cases. The actual number is far higher.

This. There are tons of unreported or untested cases so this figure is actually very low, real case numbers will be vast.

[CloudPop]

Yes, agree the real number is way higher. I was responding to the 20% hospitalisations point.

[neveradullmoment99]

@Icannever

To be fair it is harder in Scotland, yes things are opening up more from Monday but we have doom and gloom preached at us constantly from Scottish government. It’s hard to escape it honestly. We were locked down longer last year as well and it’s quite tough when you see England end Wales getting back to normal and we’re still stuck and can’t see why and you have to worry they will use the variants to avoid letting us get back to normal.
It really is a very different message in Scotland

It is more realistic and not fake you mean.
I am not doom and gloom and feel we are in a much better position here in Scotland/Uk.
However I have one eye on Europe and there is most definitely another wave. Hopefully we will escape it but maybe not. The scientist all seem to say we will have it late summer.
However I am glad of the measures Scotland have taken and hopefully at least for now, things will be more positive because of the measures we have had to endure.

[neveradullmoment99]

As for India, they are in a different position to us here with a government that is basically absent and no consistent healthcare. It is, without a shadow of a doubt, awful. Those poor people :(

[neveradullmoment99]

To me, its a stark reminder of the variants [which seem to be driving infections] and the fact that we should be shutting down travel or at least limiting it. Absolutely idiocy to be going on holiday to Europe this year.

[neveradullmoment99]

Everyone should worry more that they announced India on the red list from FRIDAY ffs! Why the hell not on Wednesday? 40 flights or so per day coming in and relying of the goodwill of those from india to isolate in their homes while they most likely come back to their extended families, children going to school..

[Cornettoninja]

I had a look at figures from my country (ROI) and based on the data, someone of my age (40) has a 2% chance of hospitalisation with Covid

Is that overall risk or risk once infected?

There are tons of unreported or untested cases so this figure is actually very low, real case numbers will be vast

But the other side of that is there are arguably a lot of cases, undetected or not, that weren’t admitted to hospital that at any other point in time with the same criteria would have been. Certainly during the first wave there was a very high bar for admittance before even considering those in care homes etc.

Yes 20% seems high - at its peak the highest number of patients admitted was around 3800 to a 65000 case rate - I cant see any articles on it but I would say it seems to be around 6-8% max

I did correct myself further along. It’s hovering around a 10% admittance rate with confirmed figures.

[TheKeatingFive]

Is that overall risk or risk once infected?

Once infected

[Cornettoninja]

@TheKeatingFive

Is that overall risk or risk once infected?

Once infected

Thanks. I just realised that could come off a bit snotty but it was a genuine question!

[TheKeatingFive]

No worries

[Quartz2208]

I also think the hospitalisation rate was based on pre vaccination - we have now vaccinated at least once those more likely to go to hospital (see previously about the number hospitalised who are vaccinated) and the variants studies do show that vaccinations tend to prevent severe infection and hospitalisation.

[TheOneWithTheBigNose]

@Quartz2208

I also think the hospitalisation rate was based on pre vaccination - we have now vaccinated at least once those more likely to go to hospital (see previously about the number hospitalised who are vaccinated) and the variants studies do show that vaccinations tend to prevent severe infection and hospitalisation.

Yes, apparently of approx 75k people who have been treated in hospital since the vaccination programme began, only 32 of those had been vaccinated.

[Quartz2208]

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

THe bottom link shows age and I think reflects the impact of vaccination on hospitalisations - the highest age admission is 18-54 at the moment.

We need I think the over 30s vaccinated asap

[Pootle40]

@Quartz2208

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

THe bottom link shows age and I think reflects the impact of vaccination on hospitalisations - the highest age admission is 18-54 at the moment.

We need I think the over 30s vaccinated asap

Isn't is because young/middle aged adults are the highest number of infections and have been for some time. It doesn't mean they are seriously ill being treated for Covid. Proportionately this is the population with infection so if they need admitted to hospital for any reason and are positive with Covid it will show through that group has the highest admissions. But that's not a worrying thing.

[YouCanStopNowThanks]

The point is we still have to deal with the hospitalisations. Not all of them have ever just conveniently been in very elderly people in nursing homes whose staff can have a general policy (or be told) not to send any of their patients to hospital. Lots and lots of hospitalisations have been of people whose families will not take kindly to a national policy of "tough shit, no hospital care for your 45 year old brother or 65 year old mum, we've decided to stop paying attention to this because most people are fine and we're all a bit bored".

While nursing home residents and their families accept their elderly relatives not being treated aggressively for covid because it's often not that successful for them anyway, good luck getting the average person to accept their more middle-aged family members not being treated when there's every chance treatment would be successful.

Therefore we can't just look at the "99%+ survival rate with hospital care available", without also making sure that that hospital care actually has a chance of happening, which means continuing to pay attention, and keeping numbers down to a manageable level. Even now when people are bored! Vaccination will gradually make that easier but it's not made it irrelevant yet. Again, even though people are bored!

[ssd]

I was doing ok till i just heard on the Scotland tonight programme someone said they are predicting a third wave towards the end of this year and in india there is a scary sounding triple mutation that they reckon is already in this country.
Christ i was doing ok before hearing this.

[Bluntness100]

Op are you getting medication for your anxiety? Is there any way in stead of reacting like this and panicking you can take some time, just five mins to try to research? For example the Indian mutation they think is more transmissible but not more lethal, vaccines may be less effective but highly likely to be still effective and the Indian strain is not considered top tier Ie it’s not as bad as the Kent variant.

If you could force yourself to spend some time researching or even trying to think things through logically would it help?

If you can’t do this would it be better if you just don’t watch the news if you can’t cope?

[HelloMissus]

It’ll be better when things open up in Scotland.

I’m in England and last week I went out to dinner and had a hair cut. I visited my mam (I know arrest me now).
Last night I went out on the lash in London. It was mobbed. And yeah it got cold but man it was fun. Loads of folk meeting up with mates. Chatting, laughing, drinking.

I’m doing this as much as I can from now on just in case we hit a bad patch in winter and have another shut down.

[Sunnyfreezesushi]

The real problem seems to be that we would need to vaccinate the whole world every 6-12 months. Vaccine production will improve but how to get it to the poorest people in the world. I read somewhere last night that the EU are preordering sufficient MRNA vaccines until 2025 (vague recollection). We really need to share the technology across the world and help all countries produce their own vaccines.