Who thinks Australia and NZ have got it right ?

[marilenagrace]

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

@eaglejulesk I really don't think there's a superior attitude by most posters on this thread. I am here to debate the pros and cons of various measures which I think is the point of the thread, most people here, myself included regularly say we think Oz/NZ have had an amazing response, we just think it wouldn't work for UK /EU with things like the Euro tunnel, Schengen and reliance on freight. Connectivity here is essential for life to function in Europe and many informative posters have pointed out that it is a different experience down under. I do wish that we knew what we know now about Covid and that Bojo wasn't in power but as alluded to by previous posters I'm mostly glad I don't live in a country like India and Brazil which cannot afford Covid measures.

I really wish my god-given pioneer-spirit internal fortitude had a better crystal ball function to deal with the predictability of those pandemics.

Ah well. Reading Guernsey’s Covid normalisation strategy and the IoM exit framework instead. Impressive. The UK and Australian governments could both take lessons from them on how to treat your population like adults.

Most of the posters on this thread jules is sniping at are Australian!

Perhaps our internal fortitude started dissipating when we left australia? A bit like my tan?

Are you saying pandemics aren't predictable? Nobody knew that at some point, there would be a pandemic? What about all the pandemic planning countries do (or don't do)? It's a known risk. Even Joe Bloggs on the street knows pandemics happen and any half decent government should be prepared and constantly on the look out. Ffs it's no wonder we're in such a mess if people laugh at the idea that pandemics are completely predictable event.

Nobody knows when pandemics are going to occur, or the nature of the particular virus.

But we all know that they can, and do happen, and they need human hosts to spread.

‘Quarantine’ has been a concept for a long, long time.

Perhaps our internal fortitude started dissipating when we left australia? A bit like my tan?

I have a much better tan in the UK (in summer at least!) Turns out the ozone layer is TOTALLY a thing.

I’m pretty sure I didn’t hand over my internal fortitude when I swapped over my licence? Hang on, is it stored in driving licences? Dammit.

Ffs it's no wonder we're in such a mess if people laugh at the idea that pandemics are completely predictable event.

That pandemics happen is of course a known risk. Been on risk registers and National security risk assessments for years.

When, and what kind? How transmissible? What sort of controls needed? Not so simple.

Shown by the fact that every bastard was preparing for a flu pandemic.

• Not every bastard. East Asia had prepared and had policies and equipment for the sort of response you’d need to SARS/MERS.

Europe, the US... not so much.

Australia and NZ were great at pivoting away from their own flu plans to the SE Asian approach quickly (and lucky that they didn’t have the silent Jan/Feb wave in huge numbers that seeded the virus in Europe.)

@TheKeatingFive

This could have been done early on if world leaders had had the ambition and determination to do it and the willingness to help each other.

What about the ones that didn’t have the financial wherewithal to support their poor to ‘stay home’? Have you seen what’s happening in India at the minute? For some countries, lockdown isn’t an option. Because it means people starving.

No it’s not because people are starving. It’s more likely l because they have had a large number of holy days that people travel long distances for and a on-going farmers protest which sadly lined up with the belief covid-19 was over and had been defeated so no one wore masks or took precautions on the return to their families and regions.

No it’s not because people are starving.

They’re rubbing COVID positive markers off people’s skin (put there by doctors) so that infectious people can go to work.

Yes it’s because people would starve.

Nobody knew that at some point, there would be a pandemic?

Of course it was known that pandemics will happen.

The exact nature, transmissibility, capacity for variance of the disease? Entirely unpredictable. FGS there’s still so much they don’t know about COVID.

@JassyRadlett

Ffs it's no wonder we're in such a mess if people laugh at the idea that pandemics are completely predictable event.

That pandemics happen is of course a known risk. Been on risk registers and National security risk assessments for years.

When, and what kind? How transmissible? What sort of controls needed? Not so simple.

Shown by the fact that every bastard was preparing for a flu pandemic.

The UK was not preparing at all really, they knew they were unprepared for any pandemic, and still cut provision. The UK lack of preparedness was a political choice made by the Conservative party led by David Cameron.

And the UK made a very poor decision to try to pretend covid was like flu, rather than like SARS. This decision costs tens of thousancds of lives and was a political choice made by the Conservative party led by Boris Johnson.

The reason NZ and Australia did better was they accepted that covid is covid and responded accordingly.

The reason NZ and Australia did better was they accepted that covid is covid and responded accordingly.

What date did NZ lockdown, with how many cases and what was happening in ROW?

Then find similar number for U.K., date and ROW

The UK was not preparing at all really, they knew they were unprepared for any pandemic, and still cut provision. The UK lack of preparedness was a political choice made by the Conservative party led by David Cameron.

Not quite - there was a pretty strong influenza preparedness strategy, and the UK was rated as one of the most prepared in the world. It didn’t have enough funding (though doesn’t Theresa May take some blame as well?) and the gutting of the NHS in particular meant that the NHS’s ability to cope with a high-fatality flu pandemic was majorly undermined (shown by Op Cygnus).

But yes, they made a major error by sticking to the flu playbook at the start. And as I said, Aus and NZ pivoted impressively considering that they too had focused on influenza.

@MarshaBradyo

The reason NZ and Australia did better was they accepted that covid is covid and responded accordingly.

What date did NZ lockdown, with how many cases and what was happening in ROW?

Then find similar number for U.K., date and ROW

That's not what I am talking about.

The UK was obsessed with washing hands, still has 'hands' as the first part of the slogan more than a year on - whilst everyone with half a brain knows this is extremely low risk compared with the airborne problem.

The UK still hasn;t moved on from flu.

there was a pretty strong influenza preparedness strategy, and the UK was rated as one of the most prepared in the world. It didn’t have enough funding (though doesn’t Theresa May take some blame as well?) and the gutting of the NHS in particular meant that the NHS’s ability to cope with a high-fatality flu pandemic was majorly undermined (shown by Op Cygnus).

Being the best of a bad bunch isn't much comfort - one thing of particular note is the UK pandemic stockpile was cut (from 2011 onwards iirc) - an important factor in this pandemic as we were very short of PPE within the NHS at the start - leading to illness and deaths amongst both health workers and patients.

Beginning timing is a major factor. It is far easier to learn from, and use as a basis, Feb and March in Europe and lockdown late March with approx 105 cases than the same amount when for U.K.?

Airborne was also debated for a time, scientists looking into it had more than half a brain. Or can you find one you think is less intelligent than you, might be easy idk perhaps you’re the one who knew all factors straight away.

So much was learnt in those early days. And very quickly the issue became problematic. Asymptomatic spread was a big part of this. Did the WHO consider this well enough or how much was based on SARS 1?

The UK still hasn;t moved on from flu.

What would you be doing differently now?

@MarshaBradyo

The UK still hasn;t moved on from flu.

What would you be doing differently now?

Read Trish Greenhalgh's twitter thread for starters, maybe Johnson could have someone read it to him. Tweets are quite short so even someone like Johnson who 'doesn't do detail' should manage to stay awake long enough to understand it.

Once you accept #covidisairborne then it is apparent the UK is not doing the right things.

For example - they want to get rid of masks in classrooms in May - when cases are scheduled to be HIGHER than they are now. Why the fuck would the government want to do that? But kids will still be washing their hands... the government were useless and still are useless.

twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh

NZ introduced self-isolation for international arrivals on 14 March, closed the border on 19 March and locked down from 23 March. They had their first Covid death on 29 March.

Australia had its first Covid death on 1 March (from the Diamond Princess) but was still importing cruise ship cases without border measures on 19 March (passengers were asked to self-isolate). Border measures were announced the same day. The picture on lockdown is less clear due to state measures coming in at different times but 25 March is a decent date to pinpoint.

This underlines that both pivoted well to a new strategy (and that NZ definitely had the time advantage over Australia) and in stamping out cases. It also underlines that they didn’t have the large number of cases the UK had silently in January and February, imported from eg Spain which was not then thought to be an issue — as well as the error of the ‘delay’ strategy (though arguably with such poor contact tracing and testing resource there was no option to pursue containment realistically. A more laissez-faire attitude from the government and a rigidly centralised public health system (I know pharma companies that were offering up testing capacity and were rejected) did not help. It’s striking that many of those countries that responded effectively in the early days had strong and crucially decentralised public health capability.

@MarshaBradyo

Beginning timing is a major factor. It is far easier to learn from, and use as a basis, Feb and March in Europe and lockdown late March with approx 105 cases than the same amount when for U.K.?

Airborne was also debated for a time, scientists looking into it had more than half a brain. Or can you find one you think is less intelligent than you, might be easy idk perhaps you’re the one who knew all factors straight away.

So much was learnt in those early days. And very quickly the issue became problematic. Asymptomatic spread was a big part of this. Did the WHO consider this well enough or how much was based on SARS 1?

My point in that post is the UK government are STILL obsessed with handwashing more than a year on.

My primary concern is not Mar 2020, that is long gone. I am more bothered about April 2021, May 2021, June 2021, July 2021... and the government is still looking the wrong way.

Being the best of a bad bunch isn't much comfort - one thing of particular note is the UK pandemic stockpile was cut (from 2011 onwards iirc) - an important factor in this pandemic as we were very short of PPE within the NHS at the start - leading to illness and deaths amongst both health workers and patients.

I’m not really qualified to comment on the quality of other countries’ influenza plans. We agree that the resourcing of that plan was poor.

Where is she based? Not a name I’ve heard

So classroom masks you’d keep. Anything else?

@MarshaBradyo

Where is she based? Not a name I’ve heard

So classroom masks you’d keep. Anything else?

Must be a nobody if you haven't heard of her Based at Oxford - a little-known University in England...

Anyone can read the relevant stuff if they are interested, inclduing the big article in the Lancet just published twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh and www.phc.ox.ac.uk/team/trish-greenhalgh

My point in that post is the UK government are STILL obsessed with handwashing more than a year on.

I suspect that is a behavioural messaging point more than anything else at this stage - that message has cut though and impact, and changing it risks undermining the whole, not the one. The hierarchy feels the wrong way round and always has but it would be interesting to see the testing around it as behavioural communications is a funny old beast (and one in which I have a degree of experience) and it’s often startling how a seemingly small (and often counterintuitive) change to a message can have a startling effect on its impact and ability to influence behaviour.

There may be broader benefits around the overall shift around hand hygiene for its wider impact on other illnesses and selfishly the fact that both my kids have gone a full year now with no fevers, no worms, etc etc...