Are our kids higher risk of 3rd wave?

[3asAbird]

Read upsetting article about 1300 babies dying in Brazil from covid

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56696907?at_custom2=facebook_page&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom3=BBC+News&at_custom4=75B890C2-9DEE-11EB-8A3B-7E2B3A982C1E&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D

I know Brazil has 2 varients that are more transmissible.

Also read lot younger patients in new York.
A lot of younger people seem to be affected by new mutated varients.

We we vaccinate all over 18s that want it.
That the virus mutates and looks for ways to survive.
Won't our non vaccinated children be a greater risk this autumn winter with non socially distanced schools?

Are the worldometer deaths for Brazil incorrect? The situation over there sounds terrible but the total reported deaths per 100,000 is 1,712 compared to 1,866 in the UK. Brazil's population is over 3 x that of the UK so the absolute numbers seem higher. I assume they must be vastly underreporting their deaths in official statistics.

Brazil missed quite a few deaths from the start; most countries missed some in under-reporting that have needed to be corrected over time. The economist tracks known excess deaths and can be a little more accurate, for example Russia declared a lot of excess deaths (largely from covid) but worldometer decided not to add them for no known reason.
www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker?gclid=Cj0KCQjw6-SDBhCMARIsAGbI7UgidBl0DKWaqhoaS6gf-AMnSIGTS-X57Y_ufDlJcAWiY6g4iQM9Jp8aAsbnEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

This research from one state in Brazil explains how it's going under-reported from lack of testing then logging deaths of pneumonia etc: www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.578645/full.

@HolmeH

If you read the full article, at no point do they reference a mutant, child killing strain. Rather, it’s accumulation of a variety of factors. The sheer amount of cases they’ve had, extreme poverty & malnutrition and extremely poor medical care. Malnutrition has the same effect on the body as an underlying condition. Their bodies are extremely weak. Plus there will be many children with actual, undiagnosed & untreated underlying conditions.

Children will be vaccinated eventually but there really is no cause for concern in the U.K. Our lives are very different.

I haven’t read it but I get this makes sense

Don't read it @MarshaBradyo, when you have a child of similar age it's too awful to read.

@MRex Thanks for the article. Excess mortality also seems relatively low in Brazil though at a high of 10% compared to over 20% in Britain.

MRex I’m reading the bfding posts with interest. Dd stopped at 2 so not an option (now 3.5) but I don’t blame people for feeling a bit relieved they are and carrying on.

@SteveyFluff

I find this terrifying. You’re right OP, if the virus can’t spread in adults then any strain that can infect unprotected kids will start to spread more and become dominant. Everyone has been saying that Covid doesn’t affect kids, when that’s clearly not the case. I had started to go out a bit with my DC but now we’ll be staying in again.

totally irrational...your Poor kids

[quote Woodpecker22]@MRex Thanks for the article. Excess mortality also seems relatively low in Brazil though at a high of 10% compared to over 20% in Britain.[/quote]
There's a good infographic on this page where you can (click add country) select England and Wales and Brazil and compare the two directly.

England fared much worse in the first wave, but Brazil is taking off right now with almost double the usual number of deaths.

I suspect average age of populations played a big part in the deaths in the first wave - we have a lot of frail elderly people who were decimated by the first wave.

A higher peak doesn't make the difference it's the total number of deaths. The Economist actually has exactly the same overall on their data for Brazil and Britain right now. Britain has an older population who unfortunately had a lot of deaths in the first wave. Most importantly, Brazil is still in the throes of high cases and deaths, as though it was January here, but Britain is not and is currently in a period of negative excess deaths; more prompt death reporting in the UK will also have some impact. So the figures will be expected to diverge significantly in coming weeks.

I was most shocked to see Peru excess deaths are already 1 in every 250 people, and just starting a new wave of infections.

worldometer decided not to add them for no known reason

Worldometer only includes cases reported to it by the official government channel as covid deaths.

It's a useful resource to track trends within a single country.

It's useless using it to compare countries.

The whole situation in Brazil is a mess, apprently ICUs are seeing very high numbers under 40 now. Brazilian doctors are saying younger people are more affected by the variant, so when combined with not being vaccinated and going to work/socialising this is causing real issues.

I hope someone from the BBC is reading this. This kind of fearmongering is disgusting. The people writing this know full well that many people, especially those with babies, will be panicked by these kinds of stories. When the country's mental health is on it's knees, and new parents are especially vulnerable to anxiety, and we all need encouragement as we head out of the pandemic, then there is no justification for this kind of headline or article.

Many are cancelling their licence fee (including us next month). Serves them right.

@Sirranon

I think it is a legitimate news item. I do feel sorry for those who can't handle the news but I think the BBC has a responsibility to report on what is happening - and this is happening.

[quote beginningoftheend]@Sirranon

I think it is a legitimate news item. I do feel sorry for those who can't handle the news but I think the BBC has a responsibility to report on what is happening - and this is happening.[/quote]
I agree, and a constructive thing to do instead of pretending it's not happening is:

A) Make sure we never make the same mistakes that left so many in such poverty and without good access to healthcare (continued austerity politics could bring us to this in the future)

B) Temporarily restrict our borders with real quarantine, to protect us from new strains until we have vaccinated the majority.

C) See if there's anything we can do to help those suffering in Brazil. Are they part of the Covax scheme? Perhaps Denmark and America might donate their unwanted/unneeded AZ vaccines, etc.

I also agree that, although awful, people shouldn't panic here. Brazil is in a very different circumstance to us. It's a country of extremes. Very rich living behind gated security, or very poor living in destitution.

Remember too we're way ahead with our vaccine rollout including Pfizer for some vulnerable children. Children here will benefit from herd immunity of majority vaccinated adults, and it's still much more dangerous for adults. Also, trials are going on right now for children's vaccines.

Thanks those trying reassure me.

Maybe I added up 1 plus 1 and equal 4.

But the media, government and doctors keep saying conflicting things.
Then my mind joins the dots.

Schools shut in January as according to Boris school are vectors for virus alas jan we have to close schools as covid ripped through school during autumn/ winter 2nd wave and keeping them open November mockdown wasn't wise.

Dr Jenny Harries telling us kids safe from covid.

Other countries not just Brazil ie USA and Italy even making pediatric cases more public.

Chris whitty telling us 3rd wave inevitable.

Uk media keep doing relentless peices about if we don't get enough vaccinated then we leave ourselves more vulnerable to next wave.

Uk media keep reporting about new mutant varients today was 76 cases if double India mutation.
We know current 1st gen vaccines less effective on Brazilian/ south African.

Say for example in May uk open up travel.
Little Johnny goes away with his family to portugal.
Unfortunately Johnny picks up Brazilian varient in August goes back to school in early September.
He passes on this varient to some of his classmates and his 23 year old newly qualified teacher whos maybe only had 1 vaccine as deadline is 31st July for 1st dose.
Little Johnny parents work full-time so his grandparents pick up from school.
Unfortunately the new varient breaks through their vaccines.
We don't know if vaccines truly stop transmission.
Little Johnny dad passed on the virus to his work mates as he works at the hospital.

Before long 3rd wave takes hold. Virus's survive by finding ways.
The one that's able to infect the most becomes dominant strain we had that with Kent varient in 2nd wave
They don't care about age..
So how are our unvacinated kids or even people in their 20s safe if they only had 1 dose.

So logically everything I'm being told and articles I read makes me wonder are children the elephant in the room.
No one wants to discuss it.
Government don't want invest time or money In making schools safer.

I think it is a legitmate news item as well about what is going on in Brazil and has led this to happen.

It is a completely differnet situation to what we have here.

Can I ask a question @3asAbird when you read the article and sad story about the young boy did you think he had died recently of the new variant and that it hit children more?

Just read an article discussing this. Apparently children under 1 seem to be most at risk. Really sad.

@Quartz2208

I think it is a legitmate news item as well about what is going on in Brazil and has led this to happen.

It is a completely differnet situation to what we have here.

Can I ask a question @3asAbird when you read the article and sad story about the young boy did you think he had died recently of the new variant and that it hit children more?

I read it as 1300 died overall and as its ut Brazil had to be something to do with the 2 new varients as 1300 seemed do high. I knew from other articles there are 2 different Brazilian varients. So yes I assumed was more recent and one of the 2 new varients Also there was twitter account that used to track and announce child deaths and cases in the UK. Something uk media rarely covered at the narrative was kids seldom get it and hot bad and schools can't possibly be the cause. Occasionally a tabloid would report deaths and say lowest aged victim but many seemed have pre existing conditions which seemed to make the loss more acceptable. I was getting very stressed about mine attending school in sept. My eldest is asthmatic.

All the other articles I read around countries vaccinating and any delays could mean they greater risks of new varients.

I don't think British school have been as cautious as other countries.
To me if we got a 3rd wave logically they be a great place virus to spread as no social distancing and poorly ventilated.
Everything public health messages say hand face space ventilate doesn't seem to apply to education setting as they young its deemed they immune.
If we vaccinate all adults or vast majority then the virus will inevitable spread amongst kids.
We can't predict what each mutation will do.

We told 3rd wave Europe is affecting younger aged people than 2nd wave or 1st.

Remember too we're way ahead with our vaccine rollout including Pfizer for some vulnerable children. Children here will benefit from herd immunity of majority vaccinated adults, and it's still much more dangerous for adults. Also, trials are going on right now for children's vaccines.
The Pfizer vaccine is only being given to children over 16, and in extremely exceptional cases where a child over 12 has profound needs, is in residential care and where it has been agreed by their consultant...it is not being given routinely to cev children.
The trials for a paediatric vaccine programme have been paused, with no news (as far as I am aware) of them being restarted.

I didn't realise it was only 16+. Sorry.

It's only AZ that's been paused. Pfizer are continuing to trial in children.

Have you been to Brazil? Many parents refuse abortion even when babies are incompatible with life, and things like malnutrition and early motherhood often results in low birthweight babies - these babies were already vulnerable and many would have died with rather than of covid.

many would have died with rather than of covid

Covid denial alert!

@HolmeH

Ok, you all just completely ignore what the article states and live in some kinda weird terror. Keeping your kids locked away is cruel. Read and understand the article, there is no mutant child killing strain. Of course kids can get covid. But your kid is malnourished & living in a slum. READ. The article even explains that malnourishment has a profound effect on the immune system.

Good grief. I’ve no idea how people function in society in real life.

Totally agree the article says clearly that these children were in poverty , poor health systems, no testing etc etc it won't happen here and has not happened anywhere else

I don’t think pointing out that the factors which make Brazil so horrific are somewhat unique to Brazil

Our last wave affected the younger population as well

@3asAbird sadly he died last June. The article itself is very good at explaining why it has happened like that in Brazil.

I am not saying your fears about mutations are wrong or unfounded because we just don’t know. Just that Brazilian situation is complicated and different from ours and you cannot extrapolate between to come to the conclusion you have