Case numbers dropping due to lockdown

[womanity]

Not vaccine.

Why has Boris said this? I don’t understand.

I get he wants people to still follow rules, but he also wants them to get vaccinated, right?

@Tealightsandd

We were doing so well too. All we had to have done was closed the borders temporarily until we'd got further along the vaccination programme.

Who was it who used to stand in front of a big red bus, throw his fists in the air and bellow

"TAKE BACK CONTROL OF OUR BORDERS!"

again?

@PrincessNutNuts
A man with blonde hair, I think.

@PrincessNutNuts Can you explain why we have not seen a big jump in cases from the Clapham Common vigil or the Bristol riots?

@MercyBooth
Don't know if there's any link but cases are rising in several London boroughs. Presumably many of the crowds travelled on public transport.

That said, the riots/vigil happened during lockdown when cases were lower.

The developing situation with the South African strain changes things. If any large crowd gathered now to protest/riot, they would knowingly be putting lives, health, and livelihoods at risk.

They'd also increase the chances of another lockdown/delay to roadmap out. So it would be pretty contemptible behaviour.

So the police WERE wrong to police the vigil in the way they did then
People cant have it both ways.

Saw this comment elsewhere and totally agree with it

"There were always better strategies available but as so many of them would have involved giving money, directly and unconditionally, to poor people, most governments went down the mass-caging-and-moral-panic route"

[quote MercyBooth]@PrincessNutNuts Can you explain why we have not seen a big jump in cases from the Clapham Common vigil or the Bristol riots?[/quote]
Outside, masks, asymptomatic spread. People not testing when they should do they've got it but we don't know, or maybe covid wasn't there...?

It usually takes a while for things to build up again after we've got the numbers this low.

Look at last summer's BLM protests and crowded beaches. How long did it take for them to filter along the chains of transmission and start causing hospitalisations?

Case numbers are rising in about 45 (?) areas, and there's usually no way to know whether they caught it of someone who caught it off someone who caught it off someone at a protest or vigil.

@MercyBooth

Saw this comment elsewhere and totally agree with it

"There were always better strategies available but as so many of them would have involved giving money, directly and unconditionally, to poor people, most governments went down the mass-caging-and-moral-panic route"

Yeah. Agreed.

Most people I know of caught it at work or in a hospital.

Well i would guess in your eyes that my DH is being sensible then. Hes on an economy boycott. So hes not going anywhere as (his words) "i dont want to spend any money" So maybe this is the way to go.

The vigil was five weeks ago.

What are the better strategies that could have been used instead of lockdowns? Lockdown (once schools were included) did work in bringing numbers down. It's not something anyone enjoyed, but I'm very glad the ideas by many on here, to let the infection spread freely were not followed.

@FrankChurchillsHaircut

Most people I know of caught it at work or in a hospital.

Most people catch it at work home or school but they don't know where the person they caught it from caught it from and so on.

I don’t know if it’s a particularly realistic expectation to explain/theorise on why something didn’t happen? That’s just an endless debate of ‘maybe’s’ surely? There’s no provable right answer.

@mrshoho

What are the better strategies that could have been used instead of lockdowns? Lockdown (once schools were included) did work in bringing numbers down. It's not something anyone enjoyed, but I'm very glad the ideas by many on here, to let the infection spread freely were not followed.

Doing Test trace and isolate properly mostly.

If people aren't financially penalised for testing and isolating they are more likely to actually do it.

And when we have got the numbers low, keeping them there. Not having Eat Out To Help Out jumpstart the second wave.

GIVE POORER PEOPLE MONEY SO THEY CAN SELF ISOLATE Tories keep saying how unprecedented this is but 13 months down the line they still dont think its unprecedented enough to let go of their ideology.

AND they still went on their summer recess. While expecting us to obey endless lockdowns

Hospital transmissions had been noted as a major driver of second wave infections.

I guess vaccination of staff and the older revolving door type of patient will be shutting down many of those pathways now.

Hmm. I think boris has said this possibly to lay the foundations for future lockdowns, so he can say it worked last time .

Personally, I think Sars Cov2 is likely a seasonal virus. Here is Scotland we had zero covid deaths last summer, before vaccines. We had eat out to help out , schools were back early August, people were holidaying abroad but deaths didn't start rising until October peaking in January/Feb (winter cold and flu season basically). We also had stricter rules throughout than England but it didn't stop deaths spiralling. A lot of those deaths were care home and hospital acquired deaths, and they would have occurred, indeed did occur regardless of lockdowns.

Hopefully now we have vaccines next winter will be a very different story.

Yes I agree with comment re track and trace and the funding to ensure people who need to isolate can do so. Also agree re the unnecessary EOTHO. Still can't see how we could have got this past winter wave under control without the lockdown though.

That's what I hope Bythevennel.

PrincessNutNuts would you mind sharing your credentials? Are you a scientist? I'm concerned you're spending a lot of time on here presenting information as if it's accurate and while you might very well be in a good position to be doing that (I don't know!) I think a lot of people are reading what you're writing as if you're an expert. I think if you're not a scientist and this is all just your opinion, it would be appropriate to share that.

I don't believe Zero Covid is remotely achievable in this country, incidentally. You have to look at every country on its own terms, if you're talking about places like NZ. Zero Covid could have been achieved here if we'd done things differently over a year ago, perhaps. Now? No. And the majority of experts think that too. We would run into massive economic problems and an associated impact on peoples' health and wellbeing if we attempted it from here now. Isn't Canada having issues with the Brazilian variant despite making people quarantine in hotels? NZ and Australian are going to face their own serious issues from shutting out the rest of the world. We won't necessarily be envious of them in the longer term.

@Bythevennel

Hmm. I think boris has said this possibly to lay the foundations for future lockdowns, so he can say it worked last time .

Personally, I think Sars Cov2 is likely a seasonal virus. Here is Scotland we had zero covid deaths last summer, before vaccines. We had eat out to help out , schools were back early August, people were holidaying abroad but deaths didn't start rising until October peaking in January/Feb (winter cold and flu season basically). We also had stricter rules throughout than England but it didn't stop deaths spiralling. A lot of those deaths were care home and hospital acquired deaths, and they would have occurred, indeed did occur regardless of lockdowns.

Hopefully now we have vaccines next winter will be a very different story.

You articulated what I think far better than I could Bytheevennel If we were starting from scratch, and knowing what we know now, yes a zero covid approach may have been the way to go (although I've yet to hear a coherent argument against shielding the elderly and vulnerable and letting the rest get on with it). I just think that ship the zero covid ship has sailed now, too many businesses are already on the precipice after 12-months of open close and the economy simply won't handle it in terms of debt levels etc.

20:16savethegrannies(although I've yet to hear a coherent argument against shielding the elderly and vulnerable and letting the rest get on with it).

Do you actually believe this would have been a better approach? Maybe I'm misunderstanding.

I don't think PrincessNutNuts has ever claimed to be an expert (unless I've missed something). She's doing the same as anyone here. Giving her opinions. I'd save your concern for the anti vax posts. That really is dangerous.

I don't believe zero Covid is remotely achievable
You're right. It's isn't with attitudes like that. It obviously is achievable, but there isn't the political or public will or foresight for it.

It's simply not true that it was too late. Someone asked up thread how we could've avoided the winter lockdown and deaths. We could've imposed border restrictions and real quarantine in summer, when numbers were low, instead of Eat Out to Spread Covid and foreign holidays.

We could've done it again more recently to prevent the South African strain taking off. It might not be too late. Just. If the surge testing in London catches it in time (and we add in the proper support measures for isolating mentioned by PP).

New Zealand and Australian are going to face their own serious issues from shutting out the rest of the world
What will those be? With the issue of climate change not going away, limiting international travel is something we're all going to have to look at in the coming years. If we want to do anything about it, that is.