Case numbers dropping due to lockdown

[womanity]

Not vaccine.

Why has Boris said this? I don’t understand.

I get he wants people to still follow rules, but he also wants them to get vaccinated, right?

Vaccines reduce the risk of the vaccinated person getting ill and also reduce transmission.
How much do vaccines reduce the risk of transmission by? Have studies established this yet for each vaccine? Can somebody who has had a vaccine and who is asymptomatic still pass on the virus?

PrincessNutNuts, you say we will end up living with Covid, but not yet.
Genuine question, what will change? I hear scientists saying we still need restrictions because of the possibility of variants etc., but won't this always be the case? When is the point at which scientists won't call for restrictions, what do they want to happen first?
I seem to remember that we were told at the start of the year (but maybe by politicians rather than scientists, I can't remember exactly) vaccines would be our way out. Has this changed? Or am I misunderstanding, and was this never what was suggested?

... if they are going for zero covid, that is their prerogative (I mean it's not like we can fucking do anything about it, they will arrest us if we protest or make protesting illegal). But ... it might make things easier if they are honest about things so people can plan accordingly (eg if I owned a small, Joe Public facing business and was told UK was adopting a zero covid strategy, I would be inclined to pack up now).

I agree savethegrannies. Tbh if that's what we are going for we might as well give up completely. But I am interested in the views expressed by individual scientists who advocate strict measures, but never give any clue as to what they think will change. Surely they are not realistically thinking zero covid is achievable?

@PuzzledObserver

Thanks to *@PrincessNutNuts and @psychomath* for their explanations. Makes sense. Loving the squirty cream analogy.

I have no idea where in my brain that came from.

How much do vaccines reduce the risk of transmission by?

Current estimates is in the range 40-90% depending on vaccine etc. However this could also be related to social distancing (ie it works that well if everyone social distancing but has less effect when people start hugging, these things work together.)

Have studies established this yet for each vaccine?

Indications only as above, so still wide ranges.

Can somebody who has had a vaccine and who is asymptomatic still pass on the virus?

Yes. It is likely that their ability is reduced - either because they are infected for less time, or they produce less infectious material.

Time as well plays a huge part - naturally pandemics take a year or two to come to its natural end

medicine.yale.edu/news-article/23446/

Is interesting written in March last year

@Mydogdoesntlisten

PrincessNutNuts, you say we will end up living with Covid, but not yet. Genuine question, what will change? I hear scientists saying we still need restrictions because of the possibility of variants etc., but won't this always be the case? When is the point at which scientists won't call for restrictions, what do they want to happen first? I seem to remember that we were told at the start of the year (but maybe by politicians rather than scientists, I can't remember exactly) vaccines would be our way out. Has this changed? Or am I misunderstanding, and was this never what was suggested?

Well we live with the threat of polio.

It's not gone from the world.

There was a lot of scepticism that it was even possible to go "zero polio" for many years.

(Although that's not how they phrased it at the time.)

But when was the last time you knew anyone who had it?

As with all high consequence infectious diseases, you vaccinate, you keep cases low as you can until you get to *herd immunity, then hopefully the lack of spread has stopped new variants from evolving and cases become isolated and rare.

Except in countries which didn't do this, where it will become endemic and always be a problem.

*And I mean really get to herd immunity - not declaring herd immunity every five minutes based on numbers that only count the adult population.

So when this chart in The Guardian says that 65-70% have had their second dose (and if the South African variant doesn't spread significantly and render all that Astra Zeneca immunity a bit moot, or a new variant emerges with better vaccine escape) then we'll be getting into the herd immunity zone. The Israelis are aiming for 90% to be sure.

So. TL;DR vaccination led herd immunity is what will change.

@savethegrannies

Vaccines reduce the risk of the vaccinated person getting ill and also reduce transmission. How much do vaccines reduce the risk of transmission by? Have studies established this yet for each vaccine? Can somebody who has had a vaccine and who is asymptomatic still pass on the virus?

Real-world data on vaccine effectiveness as well as transmission data in reference to my points made above please see: CDC Science Brief: Background Rationale and Evidence for Public Health Recommendations for Fully Vaccinated People t.co/RMaKbPKXWK

Do the vaccines reduce transmission? YES. A study out of Spain shows once 70% of residents of a LTCF were fully vaccinated, 74% of COVID-19 deaths and 75% of ALL documented infections were prevented. Further, detectable transmission was reduced up to 90%!
t.co/FYa1Xy0sqF

Moderna and Pfizer’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccines cut the risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection from 10 days after JUST one dose by 79%.
(investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2021/Real-World-Evidence-Confirms-High-Effectiveness-of-Pfizer-BioNTech-COVID-19-Vaccine-and-Profound-Public-Health-Impact-of-Vaccination-One-Year-After-Pandemic-Declared/default.aspx)
To clarify, asymptomatic is individuals who have been infected but show no symptoms or a “silent spreader.” This data is pertinent to controlling transmission of this virus. If you can’t infect you can't transmit.

There is a difference between a carrier and a transmitter. Vaccinated individuals can get infected and carry the virus. What is important to know is the viral load is so low you can’t transmit it.

@Mydogdoesntlisten

I agree savethegrannies. Tbh if that's what we are going for we might as well give up completely. But I am interested in the views expressed by individual scientists who advocate strict measures, but never give any clue as to what they think will change. Surely they are not realistically thinking zero covid is achievable?

Of course it's achievable. We know this because it's been achieved.

All the zero covid countries have to do now is remain vigilant, pounce on any imported cases that emerge, and vaccinate.

And they'll have got through this crisis with their economy looking pretty healthy, no mental health crisis, no healthcare backlog, no burgeoning Long Covid problem, and about 100,000 more of their citizens still alive than we've got.

My NZ cousin is having 300 people at her wedding in a few weeks. Unless her area goes into temporary restrictions then she's only allowed 100.

Except for the subtle distinction that New Zealand is a small, isolated country, not a major international travel hub with people popping off for a weekend here or a business meeting there across a densely populated continent, plus connections further affield. Covid was in the UK before China announced its existance and was widespread before anyone could shout "close the borders". Combine that with seasonality being perfectly timed for a winter peak in a low flu season vs summer.
We were never going to achieve Covid Zero.
No country of similar human geography has replicated New Zealand.

No country of similar human geography has replicated New Zealand

Except for Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore Japan, Vietnam, Thailand.

Major travel hub? Nowhere had to be one. It's entirely within our control and choice.

Definitely covid has demonstrated the pros of scaling that back (be good for climate change too).

NYC is usually a major travel hub. They restricted borders temporarily after being hit so badly first time round.

@BogRollBOGOF

Except for the subtle distinction that New Zealand is a small, isolated country, not a major international travel hub with people popping off for a weekend here or a business meeting there across a densely populated continent, plus connections further affield. Covid was in the UK before China announced its existance and was widespread before anyone could shout "close the borders". Combine that with seasonality being perfectly timed for a winter peak in a low flu season vs summer. We were never going to achieve Covid Zero. No country of similar human geography has replicated New Zealand.

South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam are also pursuing elimination policies despite being major international travel hubs.

It is my understanding that there is a large weight of scientific opinion which believe that zero covid is unachievable. Given that, if this were ever a policy which was to be aimed for, and given the huge cost to society of all of the restrictions, I think there ought to be an open public debate in that situation.
As far as I'm aware, smallpox is the only disease we have successfully eradicated, and it is my understanding that the vaccine against it was highly effective. Happy to be corrected if this is wrong though.

There's an equally large weight of scientific opinion that says it's achievable. I prefer their optimistic view over the defeatist ones. Admittedly hard work and short term sacrifices are needed to make it possible, and that's where it could go wrong. It's definitely a choice though.

I think we could have achieved and maintained zero covid for a comparable cost to what we’ve actually spent but there wasn’t the public or political appetite for it once the first lockdown started to ease.

@Mydogdoesntlisten the eradication of smallpox is interesting. It’s a good vaccine (95% efficacy) but the main reason for its success was how it was deployed. When a case was identified they vaccinated everyone they could within a certain radius (I want to say 50 miles but that could be wrong) and contacts outside of that. Obviously this is only possible at a certain level of infection but it was a highly effective way of breaking chains of transmission. Coming out of lockdown and restrictions now I would support the government employing a similar strategy to contain outbreaks.

I don't know if zero covid is achievable or not. My guess is it probably is but the social upheival would be huge and there would be some major winners and major losers. I also think it could genuinely bankcrupt us as a country.

Perhaps I'm wrong but I don't think restricted borders would bankrupt us. Then again, it's probably irrelevant. The government has been quite clear that they will prioritise international travel over all else. That's why our economy is such a mess, why so many dead and ill, and why we had long repeated lockdowns.

I prefer their optimistic view over the defeatist ones.

I much prefer optimistic. Optimistic over irrelevant at this point.

Better treatments, vaccines, lower level of deaths.

@Mydogdoesntlisten

It is my understanding that there is a large weight of scientific opinion which believe that zero covid is unachievable. Given that, if this were ever a policy which was to be aimed for, and given the huge cost to society of all of the restrictions, I think there ought to be an open public debate in that situation. As far as I'm aware, smallpox is the only disease we have successfully eradicated, and it is my understanding that the vaccine against it was highly effective. Happy to be corrected if this is wrong though.

New Zealand isn't living under many restrictions.

But we are.

@Tealightsandd

Perhaps I'm wrong but I don't think restricted borders would bankrupt us. Then again, it's probably irrelevant. The government has been quite clear that they will prioritise international travel over all else. That's why our economy is such a mess, why so many dead and ill, and why we had long repeated lockdowns.

Singapore literally imports everything.

@savethegrannies

I don't know if zero covid is achievable or not. My guess is it probably is but the social upheival would be huge and there would be some major winners and major losers. I also think it could genuinely bankcrupt us as a country.

In NZ it affects international travel.

But not much else.

We're the country that's had all the upheaval.

They've been living their normal lives all this time.

They just can't travel abroad for a while.

@Cornettoninja

I think we could have achieved and maintained zero covid for a comparable cost to what we’ve actually spent but there wasn’t the public or political appetite for it once the first lockdown started to ease.

@Mydogdoesntlisten the eradication of smallpox is interesting. It’s a good vaccine (95% efficacy) but the main reason for its success was how it was deployed. When a case was identified they vaccinated everyone they could within a certain radius (I want to say 50 miles but that could be wrong) and contacts outside of that. Obviously this is only possible at a certain level of infection but it was a highly effective way of breaking chains of transmission. Coming out of lockdown and restrictions now I would support the government employing a similar strategy to contain outbreaks.

Once we've done Lockdown 4 and 5 and NZ have been living their normal lives for about two years whilst we've been living under restrictions for two years perhaps the appetite to properly suppress covid will grow?

Lots of diseases are widely eliminated and don't cause issues for most countries but have not been completely eradicated from the earth.

You don't have to eradicate a disease globally for it to cease to become a problem nationally, (but we should with covid because of the variants.)

In the medium term eliminating covid in the U.K. would be a start.

We don't want to be like Afghanistan and Pakistan where everyone else worldwide eliminated Polio but they let it become endemic.

Well looks like London is fucked. Facing more local restrictions (and increased deaths, long covid) thanks to the open borders.

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-coronavirus-latest-covid-live-london-surge-testing-b929733.html?amp

There were 6 hour queues at Heathrow yesterday. Imagine how much international travel is going on to cause queues that long. Those crowds will have travelled from the airport on public transport - spreading covid far and wide.

www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/heathrow-travellers-london-mps-england-b929667.html

We were doing so well too. All we had to have done was closed the borders temporarily until we'd got further along the vaccination programme.