Case numbers dropping due to lockdown

[womanity]

Not vaccine.

Why has Boris said this? I don’t understand.

I get he wants people to still follow rules, but he also wants them to get vaccinated, right?

I just watched the video.

He sound like me.

Someone has clearly been explaining things to him again.

twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1381919420101066752?s=21

They need to staple a mask on him & stop him saying anything that's not scripted & approved by JVT/whitty etc.

I hate to mention it, but it was JVT and Whitty who assured us there could be 4000 deaths a day, based on a calculation which had already been discredited before they even opened their mouths ...

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-vaccine-covid-b1830432.html

"The bulk of the work in reducing the disease has been done by the lockdown"
Boris

It's a fair enough comment really

Most of the virus transmission happens in the younger age groups who haven't yet even had their first vaccine (or only just had it in the past couple of weeks, not long enough time for it to make much a difference). So yes.

As for the virus being seasonal - it's been summer in Brazil and that hasn't helped them at all.

Didn't lockdown end on August 1st last year? And six weeks later Whitty and Vallance were on tv with their Graph of Doom.

Depends what you mean by lockdown ending but pubs and restaurants reopened on 4 July for both indoor and outdoor seating. Playgrounds opened the same day; I remember thinking it was ridiculous they were considered to be a similar level of risk. Non-essential shops and outdoor attractions like zoos were sometime in June so a bit earlier. Gyms were something like 24 July. Not sure when things like cinemas opened, could be the same time as gyms.

I hate to mention it, but it was JVT and Whitty who assured us there could be 4000 deaths a day, based on a calculation which had already been discredited before they even opened their mouths ...

But wasn't the '4,000 deaths a day' estimate a possible worst case scenario that might happen WITHOUT lockdown measures? Isn't that what Whitty and Van Tam meant?

Even with lockdown
On the 17th of January a covid patient was being admitted into hospital every 30 seconds
On the 20th of January the UK daily death toll was over 1,800
On the 25th, there were over 4,000 patients with covid on mechanical ventilation

To add to Flaxmeadows post - with lockdown and preceding weeks of tiers and a previous lockdown. Without intervention I can absolutely envisage those worst-case numbers go be possible.

@Flaxmeadow

I hate to mention it, but it was JVT and Whitty who assured us there could be 4000 deaths a day, based on a calculation which had already been discredited before they even opened their mouths ...

But wasn't the '4,000 deaths a day' estimate a possible worst case scenario that might happen WITHOUT lockdown measures? Isn't that what Whitty and Van Tam meant?

Even with lockdown
On the 17th of January a covid patient was being admitted into hospital every 30 seconds
On the 20th of January the UK daily death toll was over 1,800
On the 25th, there were over 4,000 patients with covid on mechanical ventilation

Yes.

I would doubt Mr Johnson if he told me the day of the week.

Science has given us the vaccine, and so Mr Johnson cannot take any credit for it. Whereas any impact from restrictions he could claim, albeit in every case introduced later than should have been the case.

You can see he does not like it when Patrick Vallance praises science for the vaccine.

@sirfredfredgeorge

The case numbers have dropped through lockdown, the vaccine effect is limited at most.

It doesn't change the fact that the vaccine has save many lives.
It doesn't change the fact that the vaccine will reduce cases in the future.

But so far, the vast majority of the reduction in cases is because of the lockdown, not vaccination.

Surprisingly, he's saying it, because it's true.

Ok makes sense

@MarcelineMissouri

Here is a good thread explaining what was meant.

twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1381990226483089408?s=21

Lockdown got the numbers down - vaccines will keep them down.

Exactly and we still heavily rely on vaccines as we move forward even though lockdown did a lot to get us here

[quote Unsure33]@AmelieTaylor

No they don’t as he is correct .[/quote]
It's not about whether he's correct or not, it's about the fact he cannot convey clear messages.

He could be standing in the rain and waffle away leaving everyone confused as to whether he's wet or not

Anyone that has been paying attention knows that the lower the case rates, the better the chance the vaccines have & less opportunity there is for the virus to mutate into a virus that escapes the vaccine. The vaccines reduce transmission, they reduce the severity of the virus. But lockdown reduces transmission to a level where the vaccine can work best.

Lockdown cut rates, vaccination cut hospital admissions

@CornishYarg

Didn't lockdown end on August 1st last year? And six weeks later Whitty and Vallance were on tv with their Graph of Doom.

Depends what you mean by lockdown ending but pubs and restaurants reopened on 4 July for both indoor and outdoor seating. Playgrounds opened the same day; I remember thinking it was ridiculous they were considered to be a similar level of risk. Non-essential shops and outdoor attractions like zoos were sometime in June so a bit earlier. Gyms were something like 24 July. Not sure when things like cinemas opened, could be the same time as gyms.

Oh god, yes "Independence Day" pubs reopening on July 4th 2020, then beauty services about 10 days later?

Shops had reopened in Mid-June with zoos I think.

On July 31st small wedding receptions and bowling alleys or something.

I can't remember cinemas and theatre either? Did they reopen before it all starting going to shit again by September 8th when Hancock said cases were rising alarmingly?

When did the PM tell us all to go back to work and promise a return to normality by November? In the middle of Eat Out To Help Out?

@womanity

Yup - native R rate - the rate the virus WOULD spread at it assuming no social restrictions or immunity got in the way.

It's an average as clearly it would spread far faster in a densely populated urban environment, than in the middle of the sticks, but it gives a general idea of the extent to which measures, both immunity and social restrictions are keeping it at bay.

The whole idea at the moment is a bit like when a thief swipes a jewel off a weight-triggered alarm plate, trying to replace it with a bag of sand. The hope is that as we relax social restrictions, we replace the lost impact on R with vaccinations and end up in the same place R

@Cornettoninja

To add to Flaxmeadows post - with lockdown and preceding weeks of tiers and a previous lockdown. Without intervention I can absolutely envisage those worst-case numbers go be possible.

Same. We got to almost 2000 deaths a day even with Tier 4, cancelling Christmas and a lockdown.

No lockdown stopped it going beyond the 2000 deaths a day - that was set in motion before we started cancelling Christmas and going into Lockdown.

Lockdown can retrospectively stop those who have COVID from getting it - just the spread and preventing others from doing so.

@Quartz2208

No lockdown stopped it going beyond the 2000 deaths a day - that was set in motion before we started cancelling Christmas and going into Lockdown.

Lockdown can retrospectively stop those who have COVID from getting it - just the spread and preventing others from doing so.

Can you rephrase that Quartz I'm not quite sure what you said.

Whatever happens, whatever u turns, whatever the gov says posters on here will find a way to fall in line.

Cases are spiking in my area. I don't know how to drill those down by age but i'd bet my right arm it's cases in school age children.

@PrincessNutNuts you seem to say we got to 2000 deaths even with a lockdown - I am saying that lockdown stopped it going further. By the time we went into lockdown in January sadly those 2000 people who died each day already had COVID.

Its clear that the tier system never worked which is what caused it - which is why we are no longer trying a tier approach

I see the problem it should be lockdown cant retrospecitvely

I think his statement is partly based in truth, as explained above, but it's also clearly Johnson getting his defence in first. This last lockdown will, over the next few months be seen to have killed many people through postponed treatments and mental health issues as well as increased poverty. If he doesn't start to seed the story that it was the key to saving lives and downplay the impact of the vaccine, then the blame is all laid at his door.

@LizzieMacQueen

Cases are spiking in my area. I don't know how to drill those down by age but i'd bet my right arm it's cases in school age children.

It’s certainly possible but we’re also a week on from the Easter weekend. Is your area one of the ones reported with a rise in the SA variant in the past few days? (Don’t feel obliged to answer that if you think it’s too identifying)

[quote Quartz2208]@PrincessNutNuts you seem to say we got to 2000 deaths even with a lockdown - I am saying that lockdown stopped it going further. By the time we went into lockdown in January sadly those 2000 people who died each day already had COVID.

Its clear that the tier system never worked which is what caused it - which is why we are no longer trying a tier approach

I see the problem it should be lockdown cant retrospecitvely[/quote]
Then we agree.