It's over

[starfro]

From within the Government the figures they are seeing suggest that the virus is receding far far quicker than their experts predicted.

Christ Whitty has come out and said that we'll never see a lockdown again.

We could release everything now, like Israel did when they were at a similar vaccination level, and see no uptick in cases. I'm sure they are going to continue to follow the very conservative roadmap, but really there is no need, as immunity levels from both vaccination and infection are sufficient.

Great news!

Christ Whitty

So why did numbers increase last time when kids were at school, the only reason seeing a change now is because kids being tested and sent home to isolate, previously testing wasn't being done. Cases are dropping but not dropping by huge numbers, the figures we see now are same figures back in June when first lockdown ended, look what happened there

We need to stop obsessing on positive cases and focus on hospitalisation/ death figures

@HalzTangz

So why did numbers increase last time when kids were at school, the only reason seeing a change now is because kids being tested and sent home to isolate, previously testing wasn't being done. Cases are dropping but not dropping by huge numbers, the figures we see now are same figures back in June when first lockdown ended, look what happened there

Because they do get it to some extent and because other bits had opened up too. I am guessing.

But all along the observation has been that the younger children do get it less easily.

Case numbers are highly relevant though, we don’t need any more variants and certainly none that the current vaccines are effective against.

Or just because it was actively being looked for? Children get it but aren't as affected by it.

Doubtful that’s the case as this is primary, so they’re not having lateral flow tests. Unless parents are taking up the lateral flow tests, testing positive then testing their kids?

@HalzTangz

So why did numbers increase last time when kids were at school, the only reason seeing a change now is because kids being tested and sent home to isolate, previously testing wasn't being done. Cases are dropping but not dropping by huge numbers, the figures we see now are same figures back in June when first lockdown ended, look what happened there

Or because many children are already immune?

@HalzTangz

So why did numbers increase last time when kids were at school, the only reason seeing a change now is because kids being tested and sent home to isolate, previously testing wasn't being done. Cases are dropping but not dropping by huge numbers, the figures we see now are same figures back in June when first lockdown ended, look what happened there

Comparisons to last year are pointless when we are in a much different situation now regarding vaccines and testing.

@user1487194234

We need to stop obsessing on positive cases and focus on hospitalisation/ death figures

This, people really need to try to understand the difference the fact half the population and the vulnerable half, has on hospitalisations, deaths and of course transmission. Cases are no longer the key metric and lock down was never to eradicate Covid, It was to stop thr nhs being breached.

Our world is very different now.

@bumbleymummy thank you for educating me on this. If you had read my post correctly, I said ‘new, worrying variants’ meaning the ones that cause problems. Yes new variants are appearing all the time but we do not need one appearing that our vaccines can’t deal with, 🙄

@Poorlykitten Do you think a ‘worrying’ variant arises in a different way?

Doubtful that’s the case as this is primary, so they’re not having lateral flow tests

Some are - free tests are available to anyone with school age children. I know of a few parents who have kids in both primary and secondary testing both children and others who test for peace of mind.

Do you think you need some help understand variants? @bumbleymummy your posts always seem so confused as does your reasoning,

We were told quite specifically we should NOT test our primary age children, that the lateral flow tests were ONLY for the adults in the house. Can't remember the exact wording but it was fairly strongly 'you must not test primary aged kids'. Unsure what the reasoning is behind this.

@IloveJKRowling

We were told quite specifically we should NOT test our primary age children, that the lateral flow tests were ONLY for the adults in the house. Can't remember the exact wording but it was fairly strongly 'you must not test primary aged kids'. Unsure what the reasoning is behind this.

Maybe they thought it was too distressing and doesn’t gain much, thinking if they have it, then it would be from the family member, so just test the older family members. I am only guessing though.

For us, both DH and I don't go out except for outdoor exercise, the only way we'll catch it is via the kids via schools, and we know many parents similarly WFH, so it doesn't make sense to only test adults in this situation as they'd be the last link in the chain, by which point the infected child will have infected their classmates and onward (finding out about the adults they've passed it to will be too late to prevent onward transmission though I suppose better than nothing).

I think the idea probably is that they're too young / it will be distressing / may not do it properly. The language was quite clearly - you MUST not do this (I've just looked it up again) - not should not, must not. It would've been nice if a reason was given for this, but it wasn't.

Bit of a shame as DD1 is in year 6 - if she was a few months older, she'd be expected to test twice a week at secondary. I can see no problem with testing her frequently but I have to say the very strong 'you must not do this' has put me off. I read it as an order rather than a suggestion.

@Poorlykitten

Do you think you need some help understand variants? *@bumbleymummy* your posts always seem so confused as does your reasoning,

Not at all. Do you? You’re taking about preventing ‘worrying variants’ emerging as if they are something separate to just a ‘variant’ which will continue to arise because it’s a virus and viruses mutate.

What part of my reasoning are you struggling with?

The point being we still have to take care of each other. If your child is poorly keep them off school and get a pcr test. LFTs are good for picking up a few cases of asymptomatic infection in large populations that might have not been picked up otherwise. They're not intended to be a firm 'negative'. People need to follow testing rules now eg. symptoms = pcr test, lft just for an extra potential protection of picking up asymptomatic cases.

I am personally quite positive about the future so long as we keep testing for symptoms and don't mistake what lft is for and accept its limitations.

I'm a teacher and I'd love to see schools stay open and not be hubs for transmission. I've got the next half terms lessons planned and want to see kids present for them. I don't want to see the hokey cokey of bubbles so need parents to seek proper testing for symptomatic kids and not think lft covers it.

Please remember lft is an 'extra' for trying to pick up asymptomatic cases and is totally unreliable for telling if an individual has covid or not. PCR tests still need doing for anyone with potential symptoms.

We were told quite specifically we should NOT test our primary age children, that the lateral flow tests were ONLY for the adults in the house. Can't remember the exact wording but it was fairly strongly 'you must not test primary aged kids'. Unsure what the reasoning is behind this.

@IloveJKRowling we’ve been told this by our primary too. Lateral flows are to be used by parents, the children are to be PCR tested only.

@TheHoneyBadger thanks for that explanation and thanks for all you’re doing for the kids at your school- I’ve been blown away by how amazing teachers have been throughout this.

Thanks SaveWater. It's been pretty depressing reading attitudes towards teachers on mn over the last year and it really is nice to read posts such as yours.

Our kids despite protestations are generally happy to be back at school and I am pretty happy to be back with them. Hope society can be responsible and sensible and we can stay back in the classroom. After Easter I'm hoping we can stay in school.

@starfro

The only concerning variant (in terms of reduced vaccine efficacy) so far has been B1351. Pfizer are now saying their vaccine is very effective against it.

There may be a need for booster jabs in the future, but there is absolutely no sign that any variant is growing in relation to the main B117 strain. Immunity is holding up nicely.

I see the ZOE app has shown another big fall today, and continues to fall despite the relaxation of restrictions in March.

Given how quickly the virus was spreading in schools back in September, immunity levels must be much much higher through infection alone (kids aren't yet vaccinated). These higher immunity levels weren't taken into account in SAGE modeling, and are the reason they are so pessimistic compared to reality.

Ignoring this?

In my area we have had 0 deaths and get this 0 admissions in the last 7!days and only 3 new cases. That's brilliant!!

Surely one of the positives, particularly when the school's go back after Easter, is that Covid goes into retreat in the warmer weather and that combined with rising rates of vaccination gives a window to secure more vaccinations and in turn greater immunity.

Where I believe we need to hold this is by minimising overseas travel.

With cases and NHS pressures as they are whilst I agree with cautious unlocking I fail to see the logic of opening shops and hairdresser but NOT opening museums and stately homes. Whilst I agree that hotels should not open for family holidays before 17th May, I do not understand why it isn't possible to stay at an hotel for one night to facilitate a visit to parents or children who live 200 miles away (or say more than 3 hours) and it is not possible to the round trip in one day. Or, for example if one has dc returning to uni after Easter having come home in early December, surely it is safer to drive them there, make sure they are OK, spend a night at an hotel and drive home the following morning. I don't see how that is more unsafe than the dc going back on trains or coaches, or if a parent has to make 2/4 comfort stops at service stations because they can't lay their head at a good chain hotel between drives.

It does seem to me that the unlocking lacks a little logic.